Caps-Rangers Head-to-Head Corsi and TOI

Zone start tallies still don't work, so I didn't include those, and Corsi data still seems to miss one event per game for some reason. At any rate, here's what I have, and I added in head-to-head even-strength time-on-ice numbers (ripped from Vic Ferrari's timeonice reports). I also added in black bars to help separate the "cells" (forward lines) from each other.

Capitals-Rangers Game 5 Head-to-Head Corsi

In the grand scheme of things, the Capitals just took a game they should have. This was an example of that oft-sought "killer instinct" that has seemed to elude the Capitals recently. Now, we'll wait to see whether the Capitals draw Buffalo, Pittsburgh, or Montreal. All of the three will be a tough matchup.

Hopefully, Mike Green will be ready to go.

Head-to-Head Corsi, Game 4

That was painful to watch. Too many penalties, too much chasing in the defensive zone, and misplaced nastiness

...in the first two periods. Once the teams stopped running goalies and got down to play (and with the help of, perhaps, a slightly overconfident Rangers team and some shaky rebound control from Henrik Lundqvist, plus score effects), the Caps simply outclassed the Rangers. Special teams, even strength, goaltending, you name it. I was a little worried about Michal Neuvirth once it got to 3-0, and half-expected Boudreau to go with Semyon Varlamov, but Neuvirth came back with a vengeance (and that oft-mentioned mental toughness) later in the game, coming up with some great saves on Stepan, Gaborik, and Boyle, among others.

Head-to-Head Corsi, Game 3

That was painful to watch. Too many penalties, too much chasing in the defensive zone, and misplaced nastiness (especially on the game-winner, Scott Hannan being too occupied with cross-checking Christensen to cover Brandon Dubinsky, and also doing nothing about Prust continuously getting intentionally tied up with Neuvirth).

Games 1 and 2, Head-to-Head Corsi

My code is still in the "somewhat inefficient" stage, so I won't publish it just yet, but if you're interested, here are H2H Corsi and zone start numbers for the Capitals and Rangers. I didn't bother sorting the Rangers by lines, since Tortorella was doing plenty of line shuffling. Green background indicates a positive differential, yellow zero, and red negative.

Important note: the zone differential doesn't work yet. I'll try and fix it in the coming days. So ignore those rows for now. There's also a glitch with the Corsi numbers, but it's only a difference of one for a few players (Ovechkin in Game 1 for example was +21 according to Timeonice, but my computer spit out +20 instead). That shouldn't be a big deal, though.

Here's a direct link, in case you're having trouble seeing the Google Doc spreadsheets here.

Game 1, forwards:



Game 1, defensemen:



Game 2, forwards:



Game 2, defensemen:

Playoff Preview: 1 Washington vs 8 New York Rangers

Rangers links: Blueshirt Banter Scotty Hockey Scoring Chances

I really, really, really wanted Carolina instead, but hey, at least it's not Buffalo the Caps are facing.

Washington: 1st in East. 43-28-11 = 97 points, 18-13 in Clear Games
New York: 8th in East. 35-35-12, 82 points, 17-12 in Clear Games

The records I put here try to minimize shootout importance by counting all shootouts, whether won or lost, as ties. I counted OT losses as simple losses. Clear Game records are compiled at the Copper and Blue (see here and here) and are victories or losses by 2 or more non-ENG goals.

Preview: Capitals @ Rangers

Data is from Objective NHL, NHL.com, behindthenet.ca, and Left Wing Lock.

Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers
Washington: 18-10-3, 39 points
Leading scorers: Alex Ovechkin (12-24-36 in 31 GP), Alexander Semin (18-15-33 in 31 GP), Nicklas Backstrom (11-22-33 in 31 GP)
Goalies: Michal Neuvirth (12-5-2, 2.68, .908), Semyon Varlamov* (4-3-0, 2.06, .930)
Shot differential/game: +4.0
5-on-5 shot differential/game: +3.1
Score close Corsi%: 53.2% (5th)
Adjusted Corsi%: 51.5% (12th)
Notable injuries/illnesses: D Tyler Sloan, F Matt Hendricks, D Jeff Schultz, D John Erskine, D Mike Green, W Alexander Semin, C Nicklas Backstrom, C Boyd Gordon, F Brooks Laich, D John Carlson
Player to watch: LW Alex Ovechkin

New York: 17-13-1, 35 points
Leading scorers: Brandon Dubinsky (13-12-25 in 31), Ryan Callahan (8-13-21 in 30), Marian Gaborik (8-9-17 in 18)
Goalies: Henrik Lundqvist (12-11-5, 2.57, .915), Martin Biron* (5-2-0, 2.38, .911)
Shot differential/game: -2.2
5-on-5 shot differential/game: -3.1
Score close Corsi%: 47.9% (22nd)
Adjusted Corsi%: 47.6% (24th)
Notable injuries/illnesses: C Chris Drury, F Vaclav Prospal, D Steve Eminger, F Derek Boogaard
Player to watch: G Henrik Lundqvist/Martin Biron

*Starter as predicted by LWL

Both teams come off hard-fought losses, the Capitals their fifth straight to Colorado, the Rangers to Columbus.

1) Keep crashing the net. Bad ice at MSG means that those pretty plays may not work. The Capitals from what I gather were crashing the net against Colorado, and need to continue against New York, who don't allow a ton of good shots and are good PKers (well, until this season).

2) Hit. Get Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera, Eric Fehr, etc, involved early. The team will be all the better off as a result. Take Callahan's game to Callahan, Dubinsky's game to Dubinsky, and hopefully throw Marc Staal off his game.

3) Shoot glove. The Rangers are a poor faceoff team, under 45%. Lots of offensive zone draws always help generate offense. I'd love to see the Ovechkin-off-the-faceoff play end up hitting the net again. How many times have we seen that work?

4) Play east-west. Crash the net, and play east-west? Yep. Slow the game down. The Capitals may be missing their top defensive pair again. Marian Gaborik is happy. But his main asset is his speed, and a slow game means he can never open up and be as effective as he can be.

5) Hot Varlamov. Pretty please.

The Capitals dominated in Corsi against Colorado, more than can be solely attributed to score effects. I'd say it's a sign they could be turning the corner. The power play connected, the penalty kill continues to be decent, and the even strength play in the offensive zone is getting better, more cyclical and less transition. At some point this team is going to go on a long winning streak of its own. Let's start tonight. Capitals 3, Rangers 1.

Preview: Capitals @ Rangers

Washington Capitals @ New York Rangers

Washington: 10-4-0, 20 points

Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 8-10-18 in 14 GP

Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%

Notable injuries/illnesses: D Tom Poti, G Semyon Varlamov, W Brooks Laich

Probable starting goalie: Michal Neuvirth (8-3-0, 2.41, .914)

Player to watch: D Mike Green

New York: 7-6-1, 15 points

Leading scorer: Brandon Dubinsky, 10-4-14 in 14 GP

Tied Fenwick% last season: 49.5%

Notable injuries/illnesses: RW Marian Gaborik, C Chris Drury, F Vaclav Prospal

Probable starting goalie: Henrik Lundqvist (6-4-1, 2.55, .924)

Player to watch: C Brandon Dubinsky

The Capitals, on a four game winning streak, come to the Big Apple to face the up-and-down Rangers, who, despite injuries to important players, are somehow staying afloat, even with poor special teams (their vaunted PK is under 80%).

1) Lundqvist vs world. Henrik Lundqvist has been terrific thus far for the Rangers, and Martin Biron has been solid as well. Lundqvist will need to be at his best tonight, as Washington's talented shooters will be the toughest offensive matchup thus far for NYR. The Caps' history against New York recently may not be jaw-dropping (Ovechkin and Backstrom are hardly over a point-per-game, Semin is just under), but that doesn't mean the Rangers can slack off.

2) Does Alex Ovechkin wake up? While Ovechkin has been putting up points recently, his even strength play hasn't been too great. Instead of Pronger and Timonen trying to stop him, it'll be Marc Staal, who at just 23 years old is already an elite shutdown defenseman. John Tortorella will be matching him against Ovechkin as often as possible, and Ovechkin will have to have a very good game to break through.

3) Is this really Mike Green? Since returning from injury, Mike Green has been phenomenal. Playing top minutes every night in every sense of the word--time on ice, penalty kill, power play, and matchups--he has moved the puck efficiently, skated well, and been rock solid defensively. This is much better play from Green in terms of offensive-defensive balance than I can recall from him before. Will it keep up? He'll have his hands full taking on the blue-hot line of Ryan Callahan-Brandon Dubinsky-Artem Anisimov. Luckily for Green, those are Tortorella's tough minutes forwards too, so Green should have Ovechkin and Backstrom in front of him as well.

4) Can the second line hold its own? Brooks Laich, surprisingly to me, has been a pretty good Corsi player so far this season. He looks like he'll be out of the lineup, so Tomas Fleischmann and Mike Knuble will have a new linemate. Unless Boudreau gets creative and puts Semin on the second line with Fehr on the top line, I really think that line will have an extremely tough night. There are simply no puck control players on that line, and the Rangers have some tough forechecking forwards that'll dump-and-chase all day, plus a notable good two-way puck-possession forward in Alexander Frolov ("Semin-lite" is probably a decent description). That is, unless "Carlznerson" or "Sloskine" bails 'em out.

5) Special teams. Thus far this season the Rangers' PK has been struggling, and the power play has been frustrating. The Capitals come into the game with a hot power play that has now hit 20%, and a penalty kill that, while not as efficient as earlier in the season, is still around 87% and top-10 in the NHL. Both teams average 13.6 PIMs/game thus far as well. That being said, the Rangers' penalty kill for years has been one of the best in the league, and will present a tough matchup. A poor special teams performance could easily offset any gains at even strength

A sixth question--how much more will I love Ryan Callahan after tonight's game? My guess is not as much as before. The Capitals are hot while the Rangers are trending sideaways with injuries to two important players. Neuvirth should be nice and rested, and I'm pretty confident the Capitals can expose Lundqvist's glove more than the Rangers can attack Neuvirth's rebounds. Capitals 3, Rangers 0.