tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91203247003755012352024-02-07T21:21:52.929-05:00Red Line StationYour stop for all things Caps, with an extra focus on the numbers...like 8, 19, 27, 52, 70, 74, and 90Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.comBlogger369125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-60070427776600588112017-11-06T18:32:00.002-05:002017-11-06T18:32:43.278-05:00Lessons learned: Python packaging<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
So in the last few weeks I've slowly been putting all my code into a Python package on PyPI. (Links: <a href="https://github.com/muneebalam/scrapenhl2" target="_blank">GitHub project</a>, <a href="https://pypi.python.org/pypi/scrapenhl2/0.3.9" target="_blank">PyPI</a>.)<br />
<br />
It's still pretty buggy--hence the pre-alpha designation--and it's not as extensively built-out as some of my older code, but it's under active development and hopefully will pass the old code before long.<br />
<br />
I took on this project for two reasons:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>As a public service for people who want to do everything in Python. (Python is a great general-purpose language to learn, though for any given specific task there's probably a superior option, like R, Julia, or C++.)</li>
<li>To teach myself some software engineering-related skills.</li>
</ul>
One of Python's weaknesses is that the process of writing documentation and making and uploading packages is less-than-clear online.<br />
<br />
I can't claim all my tips here are 100% good practice, but they got things to <i>work</i>. Getting things to work was surprisingly frustrating once my project became nontrivial.<br />
<br />
Below, I listed some pain points that I learned how to handle. Reminder: you can see the code on GitHub if you want specifics or to see the fixes in context.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>Organizing a project</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeAtEttRLVevUxiaAaWLl18O4c6MqOfMhdDcv6UiCOm_9m1y2LVjWKBusbB4vLDQRQjXN-NGs_c5GxPIwQn4INmvC30cBpUYxogMPTAdAq8dD5kaXSAcaa52k4XS-op4n5oCej3Xj-UaBb/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="412" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeAtEttRLVevUxiaAaWLl18O4c6MqOfMhdDcv6UiCOm_9m1y2LVjWKBusbB4vLDQRQjXN-NGs_c5GxPIwQn4INmvC30cBpUYxogMPTAdAq8dD5kaXSAcaa52k4XS-op4n5oCej3Xj-UaBb/s320/Capture.JPG" width="241" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Use subdirectories. Each one should contain <i>__init__.py</i>. In each <i>__init__</i>, write <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>__all__ = []</i></blockquote>
and then fill the list with (quoted) names of modules in that folder. (You can do this manually or algorithmically.) <br />This ensures that when you import * from the subdirectory:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>from mypackage.mydir import *</i></blockquote>
all methods from all the modules will get imported.<br />Don't forget to update your top <i>__init__.py</i> either.</li>
<li>In your <i>setup.py</i>, use<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>packages=setuptools.find_packages()</i></blockquote>
as one of your kwargs in <i>setuptools.setup()</i>. As you build out your package, this will help ensure nothing gets lost. (You'll have to import <i>find_packages</i> from <i>setuptools</i>, of course.)</li>
<li>Have a separate data folder. Don't <i>git commit</i> these unless you can't regenerate them easily. But you can include them in your <i>MANIFEST.in</i> file if you want. </li>
<li>Add everything you want to include in the package in your <i>MANIFEST.in</i>. Only python files are included by default. (For example, start by include your <i>LICENSE.txt</i> and <i>README.rst</i>.) </li>
<li>Add files to your <i>gitignore</i> early. It's easy to start tracking a file, but annoying to stop tracking it and delete earlier tracking (and fooling around with git can lead to catastrophe-level deletion by accident).</li>
</ul>
<b>Coding</b><br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Writing tests after the fact is hard. Use test-driven development if possible--it'll also help you structure your code to be as modular as possible. If it's too late for that, at least use <i>assert</i> statements liberally, wherever something should always hold true but you're not 100% sure it will (having only tested a basic case or two while writing the original code)</li>
<li>Made modules short and methods modular. Don't worry too
much about efficiency/run time unless your package does computationally
intensive work.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxqHJIqsGCBmbwsgu45_oJuoUp0pV30_wWSE3olkXYbrEOwK9RCJLPJOyTwFQmCZ3ZBusunfk32l7rRtv3RFHB9vYjWTr_5jZ5WyggSPeHpLK90m4sH-gq9d4AvL6gyuINzlOE1h35hvgG/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="778" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxqHJIqsGCBmbwsgu45_oJuoUp0pV30_wWSE3olkXYbrEOwK9RCJLPJOyTwFQmCZ3ZBusunfk32l7rRtv3RFHB9vYjWTr_5jZ5WyggSPeHpLK90m4sH-gq9d4AvL6gyuINzlOE1h35hvgG/s320/Capture.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
</li>
<li>Use <i>feather-format</i> for fast data frame read/write.</li>
<li>It's <i>beautifulsoup<b>4</b></i>, not just <i>beautifulsoup.</i></li>
<li> Make decorators for tasks like error logging, rate-limiting requests, caching results of methods (via <i>functools</i>), trying to access a site a few times in case you get an unexpected timeout or something, etc. I confess I haven't quite figured out how to make all of this work, so I wrote methods to do similar tasks--they're really helpful.</li>
<li>The caching decorator from <i>functools</i> needs all the arguments to be hashable, which is annoying. Keep that in mind--you won't be able to pass dataframes, dictionaries, lists, or other mutable objects as arguments. Sometimes, you can use tuples, but other times, you'll need to refactor to avoid the situation.</li>
<li>Writing one-line methods is often worth it. For example, the method to access a particular file--if you decide to change the file path down the road, you only have one change to make.</li>
<li>Try to make syntax as parallel as possible. E.g. I use get_parsed_pbp, get_parsed_toi,<br />get_raw_pbp, get_raw_toi, get_parsed_pbp_filename, etc. Makes method names easy to remember.</li>
<li>Use aliases and be consistent. If you have to import another module in the same package, you could use, for example </li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-align: left;">
<i>from mypackage.mysubdir import module as mod</i></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>import mypackage.mysubdir.mod as mod</i> </blockquote>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Add a blank line between the intro text and <i>:param</i> lines of your docstring, and again between the <i>:param</i> and <i>:return:</i>. This ensures that Sphinx reads it in correctly.</li>
<li>If you need multiple lines for anything in <i>:param</i> and <i>:return:</i>, indent. That way Sphinx doesn't get confused.</li>
</ul>
<b>Uploading to PyPI</b><br />
<br />
Just follow this process:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Create an account with PyPI</li>
<li><i>pip install twine</i> (if necessary)</li>
<li><i>pip install wheel </i>(if necessary)</li>
<li><i>cd</i> into your project's top folder</li>
<li><i>python setup.py sdist</i></li>
<li><i>python setup.py bdist_wheel</i></li>
<li><i>twine upload dist/*</i> and enter your username and password<i> </i></li>
</ul>
If you want to upload things<i> </i>later:<br />
<i></i><br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Change the package version in <i>setup.py</i></li>
<li>Remove the old <i>whl</i> and <i>tar.gz</i> files from your <i>dist</i> folder (you can delete them, or if you really want, move them to a new folder called <i>olddist</i>)</li>
<li>Follow process above</li>
</ul>
Some of the commands don't overwrite your old stuff, so if you don't clear things out and change the version, when you try to install again, you'll just have the old version.<br />
<br />
Also, you can install a package from whl using<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>pip install [filename].whl</i></blockquote>
So before uploading to PyPI, I recommend creating a <i>virtualenv</i> or <i>conda</i> environment, making sure your whl installs properly in there, and only then uploading to PyPI. Otherwise you'll have to increment your version again and again and again.<br />
<i> </i><br />
It's also good to use <a href="https://travis-ci.org/" target="_blank">travis</a>. It'll require you to create a <i>travis.yml</i> file in your project main directory where you have to specify python versions, platforms, packages you need, etc. For example, the top of a <i>travis.yml</i> could read:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>language: python</i><br />
<i>python:</i><br />
<i> - "3.6"</i><br />
<i>install:</i><br />
<i> - pip install numpy</i></blockquote>
<div>
<b>Writing documentation with Sphinx</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2bULK9WD5An-hDoSvf1r9C2F8cNLidFFTz0wWhactZ-iPeYNse4LwlouXR1AyFjzR_VzwxID7T0I4mH1vjUK3Vr_IdlDFikABbEKFCLgpnCxJQrkiRt2uusdqwcXMzX7Iwhyphenhyphenus0yzbAfy/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1188" data-original-width="514" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2bULK9WD5An-hDoSvf1r9C2F8cNLidFFTz0wWhactZ-iPeYNse4LwlouXR1AyFjzR_VzwxID7T0I4mH1vjUK3Vr_IdlDFikABbEKFCLgpnCxJQrkiRt2uusdqwcXMzX7Iwhyphenhyphenus0yzbAfy/s400/Capture.JPG" width="172" /></a></div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Create a nice <i>README.rst</i>. My project wasn't working for weeks but at least that pretty readme made me feel good. </li>
<li>Create a <i>docs</i> folder in your project and set up Sphinx there. Make sure <i>autodoc</i> gets enabled and there are separate <i>source</i> and <i>build</i> directories.</li>
<li>You'll need to add paths to the rest of your project in <i>conf.py</i>. Near the top, where you see the part about adding paths in, just add a bunch of <i>sys.path.insert</i> statements using relative paths until things work. (You can clean it up later.)</li>
<li>In <i>conf.py</i>, also update the package <i>version</i>. Also change the <i>pygments_style</i> and <i>html_theme</i> to something you like.</li>
<li>Be careful about indentation in your <i>.rst</i> files. For example, PyCharm, if you let it auto-format before pushing code to a git repository, might change your three-space indent to four spaces or to zero spaces. (This kept messing up my <i>toctree</i>.) </li>
<li>In your <i>toctree</i>, the entries have to line up with the first colon in <i>maxdepth</i>. In general, line up text with that colon, not with the text after it.</li>
<li>Yes, you do have to outline all the pages of your docs. But it's not too hard. Just make some basic pages and use <br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>.. automodule:: [module name]</i><br />
<i> :members:</i></blockquote>
You can reorganize things from there. </li>
<li>You can include your readme in your <i>index.rst</i>:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>.. include:: ../../README.rst</i><br />
<i> :start-after: inclusion-marker-for-sphinx</i></blockquote>
Then I just inserted the marker before my first header (but after the code badges) in my readme:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>.. inclusion-marker-for-sphinx</i><br />
<br />
<i>Introduction</i><br />
<i>========</i><br />
[...]<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu6_en7Zx4j1hgMu9V5JEvaA3jwh2dgpzT5mJ6hIU5YlxAKkpEl2ArRU-l-kB-spW0j5lCo3gRQuO9NaeiiO7rPPH0kv3S7gAIxyQDW_z_rCrBfxg7LuNDj-EqyHXfwiOggC7JTSTSJSnm/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="971" data-original-width="1180" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgu6_en7Zx4j1hgMu9V5JEvaA3jwh2dgpzT5mJ6hIU5YlxAKkpEl2ArRU-l-kB-spW0j5lCo3gRQuO9NaeiiO7rPPH0kv3S7gAIxyQDW_z_rCrBfxg7LuNDj-EqyHXfwiOggC7JTSTSJSnm/s320/Capture.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
</blockquote>
</li>
<li>If everything is building properly on your machine, you can try to upload to <i>Read The Docs</i>. There are some settings there you may have to fiddle with (like the virtualenv when you need <i>numpy</i>). If your build fails, or the docs don't look like they do on your system, check the build logs. (I found issues with absolute imports needing to be changed to relative and python package version and dependency issues, for example.)</li>
<li>Use your browser to view the docs you create. You can just refresh the page when you rebuild.</li>
<li> Pay attention to the error messages Sphinx gives you--it may still finish building even when the docs don't turn out quite right:</li>
<ul>
<li>If a module can't import properly, <i>automodule</i> may not show anything.</li>
<li>Again, if you don't make proper use of indentation and blank lines, method docs (for example) may show up as a wall of text rather than a list of parameters.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<b>BONUS: Flask</b><br />
<br />
I'm building out a Flask app for this package as well. Flask was also tricky to get up and running beyond "Hello, World." Here's what I learned:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><b> </b>You need to create HTML templates for each page. Kind of like for Sphinx, this can just be an outline (HTML in this case) and you can use some special syntax to insert arguments Python will pass to it. You can also have if-else and for-loops, and more.</li>
<li>Beware of caching </li>
<li>You can generate and show an MPL image. The flow goes like this: </li>
<ul>
<li>User access a url, like '/games/20001/'</li>
<li>That request triggers a method</li>
<li>The method tries to render a template</li>
<li>The template tries to get an image from another page (use <i>img src = {{ url_for...</i>) </li>
<li>That request triggers a method </li>
<li>In your original .py file, you should have a method that does this:<br /><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>fig = [get image]</i><br />
<i>import io</i><br />
<i>img = io.BytesIO()</i><br />
<i>fig.savefig(img)</i><br />
<i>img.seek(0)</i><br />
<i>return send_file(img, mimetype='image/png')</i></blockquote>
So what essentially happens is when the user goes to a url, you render a template that requests a different url, and when that request comes in, the method returns an image.<br />
</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
That's it for now. I'll add to this later if anything else comes up. Hopefully, though, between the usual online references and this, you'll have a less painful experience writing and documenting a python package.</div>
</div>
</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-91656090296912200192015-06-27T06:08:00.001-04:002015-06-27T07:00:52.864-04:00What does BPA mean? <p dir="ltr">I don't think anybody wants their team to not pick BPA at the draft. No executive, as far as I've seen, says they're not going BPA. But what does BPA mean? </p>
<p dir="ltr">The easy answer is "best player available." But that's not how teams should pick, necessarily. </p>
<p dir="ltr">Look at the NBA Draft and this is pretty clear. The best player in college basketball this year was Frank Kaminsky. He went 9th overall. Eight players (well, nine, probably, to include Justise Winslow), most of whom were also playing in college, were judged to be better pro basketball prospects, even though they are worse players now. </p>
<p dir="ltr">While the NBA Draft has that extra <u>factor</u> of (year-plus) age difference, in hockey, it's the same general idea--best prospect available. Nic Petan was a top player in the CHL but only went in the second round (and while that's a rare case, it's not unprecedented). Anthony DeAngelo was CHL defenseman of the year this past season--in a redraft, I highly doubt he moves up much, even though he's the best D available. What you want is the best prospect available, not the best player available. Both BPA ideas contrast with drafting for need, but the former is better--that should be self-evident. It also should be obvious that they're not the same. (Keep in mind we're still allowing for teams to make errors in assessing BPA.)</p>
<p dir="ltr">The Caps in Ilya Samsonov may have drafted the best player available--AGM Ross Mahoney said that's their philosophy--but given that skaters are about twice as likely as goalies to pan out in the first couple of rounds (going off memory, something like 70% vs 35% to play 100 games), it seems unlikely that he was also the best prospect available. </p>
<p dir="ltr">(Hell, even the history of late first skaters vs the top goalie in each draft doesn't look so hot for <u>the</u> netminders, if you think about it. Bernier, Varlamov, and Price are the last three top goalie picks who really panned out, as far as I can recall, although Vasilevskiy may be getting there.)</p>
<p dir="ltr">It's also possible they thought he was the best prospect available and equate best player with best prospect, but that strikes me as a rookie mistake--the numbers say favor forwards slightly over defenseman, and both heavily over goalies, early on. </p>
<p dir="ltr">I guess the bright side here is that if he develops rapidly, the Caps could be saving $5m or more by moving Holtby and going with Samsonov and Grubauer in the final years of Backstrom's deal (which has five years remaining). In a vacuum, though, I find it hard to believe <i>any</i> team is so good at drafting goalies that picking one in the first round makes sense, and projecting your situation a few years down the road is always tricky business. I'm not a fan of this pick. </p>
<p dir="ltr">I hope I'm wrong. </p>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-17484802401243840662013-10-08T00:25:00.002-04:002013-10-08T00:31:38.176-04:00Good Teams, Bad Games<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I took the teams with 54+% Corsi close at the end of each season and looked at their Corsi percentages over each three-game stretch (overlaps included).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSy_6p66Vgxl_8byjRU5VlsEgmGRj0OMMOo2dBYbHhU82spuByzYEYTvnQ-WCBVShWjeNYKKlTzJzi2NcCJRNfk_iuzv9L2tL3goBkkYRYpv54VgGrJ1co10GnK-f8p2SMIJcgPemwHnjj/s1600/rolling+corsi+close+3+gm.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSy_6p66Vgxl_8byjRU5VlsEgmGRj0OMMOo2dBYbHhU82spuByzYEYTvnQ-WCBVShWjeNYKKlTzJzi2NcCJRNfk_iuzv9L2tL3goBkkYRYpv54VgGrJ1co10GnK-f8p2SMIJcgPemwHnjj/s640/rolling+corsi+close+3+gm.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="http://www.extraskater.com/teams/2013/5v5close">According to Extra Skater</a>, the Capitals are at 46.8% over their first three games of the 2013-14 season. A little over four percent of three-game stretches here fall in that range (less than and not including 47%). <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.extraskater.com/team/washington-capitals/2013">Caps under 46.8%</a>: Fehr, Brouwer, Chimera, Alzner, Hillen, Ward, Green, Carrick, Oleksy, Beagle. Caps over 50%: Erskine, Ovechkin, Erat, Backstrom, Wilson, Latta, Carlson, Johansson.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, it's probably a good bet that the Capitals are not an elite possession team. (I thought they'd be around 52-53%...eight percent of three-game segments for 52+% Corsi close teams are under 47%. The figure is four-and-a-half percent for 53% Corsi close teams. Still not good odds, but there's a little more hope on the 52% front.) On the other hand, four percent of the time is still three or four times a season (80 three-game segments in 82 games).<br />
<br />
I still think this team is a 52% possession team that'll be on the good side of PDO (assuming Erat moves up the lineup and Laich down). But, obviously, this slow start is less than encouraging, especially given that last season wasn't that great possession-wise for Washington.<br />
<br />
The 17 teams above 54% Corsi close: 07-08 Red Wings, 07-08 Rangers, 07-08 Capitals, 08-09 Sharks, 08-09 Red Wings, 08-09 Blackhawks, 08-09 Capitals, 08-09 Flames, 09-10 Red Wings, 09-10 Blackhawks, 11-12 Red Wings, 11-12 Penguins, 11-12 Devils, 11-12 Kings, 12-13 Devils, 12-13 Blackhawks, 12-13 Bruins, 12-13 Kings.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-77616861078083128202013-09-30T15:24:00.002-04:002013-10-01T10:46:44.879-04:00Metropolitan Division Thoughts<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<b>1. Pittsburgh*</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Crosby, Malkin, and Letang can carry this team.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: This team isn't that deep anymore. If Crosby and Malkin go down, they're done—no Jordan Staal-level player to pick up the slack. Their goaltending also looks merely average or slightly below—Fleury hasn't been bad during the regular season in awhile now. I highly doubt the situation in net can derail this team, unless Fleury and Vokoun are simultaneously out for a long period of time.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: Kris Letang got hurt. Out indefinitely. Tomas Vokoun was also hospitalized for a blood clot and although he's been discharged, he's out indefinitely as well.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>2. Washington*</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Mike Green could be returning to old form. The Caps are fine in net with Braden Holtby.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: Mikhail Grabovski is such a better player at 5v5 than Mike Ribeiro that it's not even funny to see people try to downplay the difference. The power play will likely be plenty worse next season. Martin Erat is a really nice player to have on the second line or third line. John Carlson should be a lock to make the Olympic team for Sochi.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: Tom Wilson might make the team...if he does, another move needs to come. (Edit: they traded Mathieu Perreault, which could cost the team a point or two in the standings.) Brooks Laich is questionable for the opener.<br />
<br />
<b>3. New York Rangers*</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: This team has a pretty good roster, with great goaltending.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: New coaches aren't guaranteed to improve their teams. John Tortorella got a lot out of the Rangers. Alain Vigneault only coached one elite possession side with the Canucks, in 2010-11...when the rest of the league was relatively weak (not a single 55% Corsi tied team). Other than that, it's been above average (say, 51-53%) with high-end shooting%. The possession falls in line with what Tortorella got out of NYR, and while shooting% improving should make a big difference, Nash/Stepan << Sedins in that regard.<br />
<br />
In short—I expect Vigneault to improve the Rangers' power play, but that's about it—I'm not holding my breath for a big shooting% uptick, and I don't see their Corsi improving.<br />
<br />
Also, Marc Staal is no guarantee to be the same high-end D he was before.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: Stepan signed. Callahan was cleared for contact, but Carl Hagelin is still out.<br />
<br />
<b>4. New Jersey*</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: The Devils are good defensively.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: A lot. People don't realize how big an upgrade Cory Schneider is—he arguably could have made the 2012-13 Devils a playoff team given 2/3 or 3/4 of the team's starts. Martin Brodeur is simply not a good goalie anymore, and hasn't been in at least three years. Furthermore, Ilya Kovalchuk didn't have a great season, so losing him won't hurt <i>that</i> much. Jagr, Brunner, Clowe, and Ryder should be able to replace a lot of what he did.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: signed Damien Brunner<br />
<br />
<b>5. New York Islanders</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Young team on the rise. Goaltending a weakness.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: They may be good enough possession-wise to overcome below-average netminding (think Washington, 08-09). Losing Mark Streit isn't actually as big as a deal now as it would have been in the past, when Streit was nearly a Norris-level blueliner—his 2013 was a step back from his normal level of play.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: Travis Hamonic got hurt.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Carolina</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Lots of skill up front, lack defense, really need Cam Ward to be strong in net.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: Eh, that's pretty much spot-on.<br />
<br />
Recent developments:<br />
<br />
<b>7. Philadelphia</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: This team has plenty of talent up front. Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds, Vincent Lecavalier...the list goes on.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: An aging Mark Streit doesn't fix Philadelphia's blueline issues. Better health will correct it, partly, but Kimmo Timonen is still the only standout D there (assuming Streit's decline in play last year on Long Island isn't merely a blip on the radar). Oh, and Steve Mason I highly doubt will be part of an effective goaltending tandem. If Philly wants to make the playoffs, it'll either need to look for another goalie, or hope Emery can handle a starter's workload. Otherwise, it'll still be too many goals against to make the playoffs.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: Scott Laughton made the team in his draft+1 season. May just be another nine-game stint...maybe not. Signed Hal Gill.<br />
<br />
<b>8. Columbus</b><br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Sergei Bobrovsky's performance will be the determining factor this season.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: That Bobrovsky has a decent chance of repeating last season. That the Jackets are close to the playoffs without a great performance in net. The team is bad in possession, isn't icing a ton of youngsters (just Ryan Johansen, Ryan Murray, and maybe Tim Erixon, by my count), is very thin down the middle (I'm an Artem Anisimov fan, but neither he nor any of his teammates is a legit 1C), and one of its best players is out until December.<br />
<br />
Sounds like a recipe for success. Sure. <br />
<br />
Recent developments: none</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-52038369467842849722013-09-28T16:01:00.001-04:002013-09-28T16:09:48.558-04:00Atlantic Division Thoughts<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
1. Boston*<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: The Bruins are deep up front and have great goaltending. <br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: Their defense isn't proven to be that good—I think their success has been mostly forward- and goalie-driven, Chara aside, of course—although with young players like Dougie Hamilton and Torey Krug it could be. Jarome Iginla and Loui Eriksson may not be an upgrade over Nathan Horton and Tyler Seguin. But given how good Tuukka Rask is, I'll give Boston the edge over the rest of the teams in this division.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: none<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
2. Detroit*<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Everything.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: Nothing, really. This team is really good.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: none <br />
<br />
3. Ottawa*<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: This is a young team on the rise that should be really good.<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets wrong: The leadership void left by Daniel Alfredsson—if there is even one—should be more than made up by young players maturing and the additions of Bobby Ryan and Clarke MacArthur (who is a very good second-line forward).<br />
<br />
Recent developments: Erik Karlsson admitted his Achilles is not at 100% (link). In Washington, we've seen how a D that relies so much on skating can suffer with injuries that affect mobility; if Karlsson can avoid the same fate, the Senators could push for the top seed in the conference, but if not, I don't think they'll be able to leap Detroit and Boston.<br />
<br />
4. Montreal*<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: Is this team for real? A year after getting the second overall pick, the Canadiens beat out the eventual Eastern Conference champ for the division crown. <br />
<br />
What
conventional wisdom gets wrong: The season doesn't hinge on Carey Price—I mean, Price wasn't in good form the final few weeks of the lockout-shortened season, and the Habs still beat out the Bruins for the division crown.<br />
<br />
It hinges on Montreal's possession game. It was elite in the short season, and we have several examples of elite possession teams having no trouble overcoming poor goaltending to end up with a good playoff seed (Washington in 08-09, Chicago in 09-10, Detroit pre-Howard, Sharks pre-Niemi, etc). But it's hard to believe the team had such a big possession turnaround so quickly—was Therrien using some one-season gimmick, like Guy Boucher in 2010-11 with Tampa Bay, or is he simply a great fit for that team? I don't know. I'll guess it's a bit of both, but more of the latter.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: none<br />
<br />
5. Florida<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: The Panthers will have a lot of young players in the lineup.<br />
<br />
What
conventional wisdom gets wrong: A lot. Possession-wise, this team finished 20th (Corsi tied)—not terrible. The year the Panthers won the SE, they were a ~50% possession team that got lucky to get to overtime and the shootout so much. With so much youth in the lineup, this season, they have the potential to be more. Furthermore, adding Gilbert gives them another proven top-pair D (assuming he hasn't fallen off significantly since his time in Edmonton), and Thomas should make a huge difference if he still has game—he's much better than Theodore/Clemmensen.<br />
<br />
Also, they had a ton of injuries last season. Don't expect a repeat. <br />
<br />
Recent developments: signed Tim Thomas, Brad Boyes, and Tom Gilbert<br />
<br />
6. Toronto<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: ...? <br />
<br />
What
conventional wisdom gets wrong: That the Maple Leafs are a well-coached, well-run team, and that they needed Jonathan Bernier. That Tyler Bozak is passable as a 1C. That Phil Kessel somehow benefits from Bozak and that Bozak is a better fit there than Mikhail Grabovski. That James Reimer isn't a solid starting goalie because he allowed three goals in 11 minutes in a particular game. That a 25-year-old goalie is likely to develop into an elite netminder, a better goalie than another 25-year-old goalie who is a notch or two above him at this moment. That Toronto is "close" because they almost beat Boston...ignoring that if the series were best-of-five, that conversation wouldn't exist, since the Bruins would have won in four.<br />
<br />
Bonus—what fancystats gets wrong: There's a <a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/8/15/4624224/why-the-leafs-possession-game-and-corsi-will-dramatically-improve">great</a> <a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/8/19/4637044/give-your-head-a-shake-or-why-the-leaf-possession-game-will-rise">series</a> of <a href="http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/9/17/4737614/the-nhls-new-highest-scoring-defence-say-hello-toronto">posts</a> over at Pension Plan Puppets that outline how a big chunk of the Leafs' possession issues were thanks to Korbinian Holzer and Mike Kostka getting lots of ice time and being terrible during it. Jake Gardiner and Paul Ranger—if he's anywhere near as good as he was before taking a break from hockey—should rectify those issues. Toronto may not be a good possession team, but they could be mediocre, with above average goaltending and a great penalty kill. That's a bubble team.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: need to call up players to ice a full roster for the first few games. May need to make a move to stay under the salary cap.<br />
<br />
7. Tampa Bay<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: They should be able to score a lot.<br />
<br />
What
conventional wisdom gets wrong: Conventional wisdom often goes like "if a team is terrible, everything about it must be terrible." That's definitely not true here.<br />
<br />
This team isn't doomed to be last. It has a pretty good top end of the lineup—Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell, Ryan Malone, Jonathan Drouin, and Valtteri Filppula up front, and Victor Hedman, Eric Brewer, Matt Carle, and Sami Salo on the blueline. There's a lot of youth, to fill out some depth, too—Brett Connolly, Radko Gudas, Alex Killorn, etc. They <i>should</i> be able to <i>possess</i> the puck plenty, and get a lot of goals from all that skill.<br />
<br />
If you believe coaching was a big issue for this team, then bringing in Jon Cooper (coach of TBL's AHL team in Norfolk, which won back-to-back conference titles) should help a lot. It likely won't be enough to get this team to the playoffs (with four locks in this division and seemingly five in the other), but they could get close.<br />
<br />
Of course, the real issue may just be goaltending. If it is, Cooper won't be able to help that much. <br />
<br />
Recent developments: none<br />
<br />
8. Buffalo<br />
<br />
What conventional wisdom gets right: This team is terrible.<br />
<br />
What
conventional wisdom gets wrong: Nothing.<br />
<br />
Recent developments: none</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-41069292327873861992013-09-27T16:24:00.003-04:002013-09-27T16:24:30.684-04:00Central Division Thoughts<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<b>1. Chicago*</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Michal Frolik, F Dave Bolland, F Viktor Stalberg, G Ray Emery<br />
Additions: G Nikolai Khabibulin<br />
<br />
Forwards: Still stacked (although perhaps not quite as much as last season). Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and Marian Hossa make for a strong top-six, and younger players like Marcus Kruger, Brandon Saad, Jeremy Morin, Jimmy Hayes, and perhaps Brandon Pirri add talent across the rest of the lines. The only real weakness is having Michal Handzus—if last season is any indication, he'll be a 2C, and he's a bad 2C. (It's just that Sharp and Kane/Hossa are more than good enough to carry him.) Bolland and Stalberg should be easy to replace; Frolik will be a little tougher to replace, but there's so much talent in the system that it's hard not to see a couple of players stepping up in the next couple of seasons.<br />
<br />
Defense: Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook make a terrific top pair, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya make for a surprisingly solid second pair, and developing Nick Leddy and veteran Michal Roszival make a good third pair. (If you haven't noticed, there's a common theme here: "good".)<br />
<br />
Goaltending: We can be pretty sure Corey Crawford is a competent starter. Probably not much more or much less.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : Pretty much the same team that won the Cup. Not way better than anyone else (like 2012 Los Angeles), but one of the two or three best teams around for sure. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>2. St. Louis*</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Andy McDonald (retirement), F David Perron (trade), F Jamie Langenbrunner (UFA), Wade Redden (UFA)<br />
Additions: F Derek Roy (UFA), F Magnus Paajarvi (trade), F Keith Aucoin (UFA), F Max Lapierre (UFA)<br />
<br />
Forwards: It's embarrassing for the rest of the league how much cheap talent the Blues have assembled without lottery picks. (They've only had one top-five recently—2008, when they picked Alex Pietrangelo, a defenseman.) Lots of good two-way talent here, although Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko are the only two that could be real standouts...and both are likely still at least a couple of years away from that. That being said, this team wasn't as strong possession-wise in 2013 as it was two seasons ago—something to keep an eye on.<br />
<br />
Defense: A lot of the same sentiment. Pietrangelo is a standout, Jay Bouwmeester is pretty good, and so are Barrett Jackman, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Polak, and you could do much worse than Jordan Leopold on your third pair.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak aren't the most inspiring tandem. Elliott isn't very good, and Halak gets hurt a lot. Jake Allen is unproven.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : Great group of skaters, goaltending might be a source of weakness.<br />
<br />
<b>3. Minnesota*</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Devin Setoguchi, D Tom Gilbert (buyout)<br />
Additions:<br />
<br />
Forwards: The group is headlined by Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, and Dany Heatley. There's a lot of youth, though, which could make this lineup really strong as soon as this season: Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker...the list goes on.<br />
<br />
Defense: Ryan Suter and Jonas Brodin are good, Marco Scandella still developing. Other than that...why did they buy out Gilbert again?<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Backstrom is getting old, but Harding is a great backup.<br />
<br />
tl;dr: need young players to mature to reach next level.<br />
<br />
<b>4. Dallas*</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Loui Eriksson (trade), F Eric Nystrom, D Philip Larsen<br />
Additions: F Tyler Seguin (trade), F Rich Peverley (trade), F Shawn Horcoff (trade), D Sergei Gonchar (UFA)<br />
<br />
Forwards:
This isn't a bad group. Jamie Benn, Erik Cole, Seguin, Horcoff, Ray
Whitney, Cody Eakin, and potentially Valeri Nichushkin all bring some
offensive punch. That top line with Benn and Seguin could be especially
potent. I think Loui Eriksson ceased to be "the most underrated player in the NHL" a couple of years ago—as it is, it's hard to believe he's the most underrated if <i>everyone</i> thinks he is—and Seguin is an upgrade right now and for the future.<br />
<br />
Defense: Brenden Dillon had a pretty nice
rookie season and should be half of an okay shutdown pair in Dallas.
Gonchar, Alex Goligoski, Trevor Daley, and Stephane Robidas also man the
blueline. If Jamie Oleksiak takes a step forward, this could be a solid
group. I'm not banking on that happening just yet, though.<br />
<br />
Goaltending:
Kari Lehtonen is not elite, but he's very good. He's also managed to
stay pretty healthy three seasons in a row. This is a strength.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : I have offense and goaltending in Dallas beating out defense in Phoenix for that last playoff spot. Barely.<br />
<br />
<b>5. Winnipeg</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Nik Antropov (UFA), F Alex Burmistrov (RFA; KHL), D Ron Hainsey<br />
Additions: F Devin Setoguchi (trade), F Michael Frolik (trade)<br />
<br />
Forwards:
I really like the top line of Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, and Bryan
Little. Evander Kane is the only sure thing on the second line, but it's
possible Devin Setoguchi rediscovers some of his old form, and Mark
Schiefle has a good rookie season. Frolik solidifies the third line, and
Olli Jokinen is still there, too. It would help if either Schiefle or
Kane becomes a true standout.<br />
<br />
Defense: Losing
Hainsey hurts. Tobias Enstrom, Zach Bogosian, Dustin Byfuglien make a
fine top three, but the Jets will need to find better Clitsome/Stuart
types if they want to take the next step. Jacob Trouba could be that guy, although as a young D, don't count on it.<br />
<br />
Goaltending:
Is there a more overrated goalie than Ondrej Pavelec? (Heck, even
Marc-Andre Fleury isn't really overrated anymore, as far as I can tell.)<br />
<br />
tl;dr : Mediocre all around, if young players step up can be more than a bubble team. Need new goalie.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Colorado</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Milan Hejduk (UFA), D Greg Zanon (UFA), F Chuck Kobasew (UFA), F David Jones (trade), D Shane O'Brien (trade)<br />
Additions: HC Patrick Roy, F Alex Tanguay (trade), D Cory Sarich (trade)<br />
<b><br /></b>
Forwards:
Gabriel Landeskog. Matt Duchene. Ryan O'Reilly. Paul Stastny. Alex
Tanguay. PA Parenteau. Did they even need Nathan MacKinnon?<br />
<br />
Defense: Just like the forwards, except the complete opposite.<br />
<br />
Goaltending:
I'm a Semyon Varlamov fan. Hopefully having a full-time goalie coach,
like he had in Washington, will help him return to the pretty good form
he had out East.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : See Edmonton, minus sure thing in net. <br />
<br />
<b>7. Nashville</b><br />
<br />
Losses: F Sergei Kostitsyn (UFA), D Hal Gill (UFA)<br />
Additions: F Viktor Stalberg (UFA), F Matt Cullen (UFA), F Matt Hendricks (UFA)<br />
<br />
Forwards: There's a little talent here—Colin Wilson, David Legwand, Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist, and Matt Cullen—but not much. Yawn.<br />
<br />
Defense: Shea Weber is the only standout, but there are plenty of talented, younger D back there: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Elkholm, and now Seth Jones. This blueline could be exceptional, or it could be a mess aside from the top pairing.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Pekka Rinne's career save percentage is .920. That's really good, but I don't think he'll be able to carry this team like Jonathan Quick carried the 2011-12 Kings (until April, at least).<br />
<br />
tl;dr : Remember when Barry Trotz and Dave Tippett were always mentioned in the same breath? Well, now we'll see.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-31619809771910116182013-09-26T19:46:00.003-04:002013-09-26T19:46:53.448-04:00Testing my optimism<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I thought this would be a fun exercise. I'll project every player's goal, assist, and point total. At the end, I'll add them up and see whether the totals make sense.<br />
<br />
Ovechkin—40-50-90<br />
Backstrom—25-55-80<br />
Johansson—17-35-52<br />
Erat—17-35-52<br />
Grabovski—25-25-50<br />
Brouwer—17-15-32<br />
Laich—15-20-35<br />
Perreault—15-25-40<br />
Fehr—15-10-25<br />
Chimera—10-10-20<br />
Beagle—5-5-10<br />
Ward—10-15-25<br />
<br />
And throw in a little extra from Volpatti, Latta, and the other irregulars.<br />
<br />
Green—15-40-55<br />
Alzner—2-15-17<br />
Carlson—10-30-40<br />
Erskine—2-3-5<br />
Hillen—2-8-10<br />
Oleksy—1-9-10<br />
<br />
And throw in a little extra for Strachan, Orlov, Kundratek, and other irregulars. <br />
<br />
Holtby—0-2-2<br />
<br />
Total: 243+ G, 407+ A, 650+ P<br />
<br />
Let's say the irregulars bring that up to 245 goals. That's 2.99 goals per game—pretty reasonable, actually. In 2011-12, it would have ranked fourth in the league, and in 2010-11, fifth. (The Caps were fifth in the lockout-shortened season.)<br />
<br />
Yeah, so I'll stick with these.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-86252941469505972402013-09-14T14:23:00.002-04:002013-09-14T14:35:18.276-04:00Pacific Division Thoughts<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Lots of interesting storylines in this division, from potentially the last hoo-hah of Thornton, Marleau, and Boyle in San Jose, to seeing if Phoenix can rebound with Mike Ribeiro in the mix, Edmonton's experiment with saying they'll do things their fanbase loves (puck possession), seeing if Anaheim can become that decent puck possession team we've seen glimpses of each of the last two seasons, and, of course, John Tortorella versus Canadian media.<br />
<br />
I vacillated a lot between Anaheim, Phoenix, and Edmonton—I can see a good case for any order there. I felt there was a lot of uncertainty with Vancouver. Other than that, I feel pretty good with my picks here...unless I missed something huge.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><i>*Predicted playoff team</i> <br />
<br />
<b>1. Los Angeles*</b><br />
<br />
Lost: F Dustin Penner (UFA), G Jonathan Bernier (trade), D Rob Scuderi (trade)<br />
Gained: F Matt Frattin (trade), G Ben Scrivens (trade), F Daniel Carcillo (trade), D Jeff Schultz (UFA)<br />
<br />
Forwards: The Kings have some excellent forwards. Anze Kopitar is one of the top ten centers in the game and a perennial Selke candidate. Justin Williams is consistently a very productive player offensively, Dustin Brown could be worth more than a win based on penalty differential alone, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter are both solid two-way forwards...the list goes on. There's some more youth lower in the lineup (Tyler Toffoli, Matt Frattin, and Trevor Lewis, for example, plus Linden Vey and Tanner Pearson in the AHL).<br />
<br />
Defense: I think Drew Doughty is one of the top five defensemen in the game. Slava Voynov is working his way up. You could do worse than guys like Alec Martinez, Matt Greene, and Jake Muzzin as depth D. I don't like Robyn Regehr, but Doughty is good enough to overcome his partner's lack of puck-moving ability, and the Kings do have Derek Forbort to step up in case Regehr declines even more. This blueline looks weaker than it was two years ago, but not to the point of being a big weakness.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Jonathan Quick often gets mentioned in the same breath as Henrik Lundqvist, but his track record is a little thin—it's two below average seasons, two average or slightly above, and one terrific, plus two great and two unimpressive playoff runs. I don't think we can bank on elite netminding here just yet. Ben Scrivens looked like a good backup in Toronto, and maybe he can spell Quick from time to time; if not, no matter, since Quick can handle a heavy workload, and is average at worst.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : only a little worse than the team that steamrolled its way to the Stanley Cup two years ago. <br />
<br />
<b>2. San Jose*</b><br />
<br />
Lost: TJ Galiardi (trade), G Thomas Greiss (UFA)<br />
Gained: F Tyler Kennedy (trade)<br />
<br />
Forwards: It's a pretty strong group in San Jose. Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau can play toughs on one line, Joe Pavelski and Kennedy can handle the rest on another. Joe Thornton gets easier minutes with Brent Burns and, potentially, skilled rookie Tomas Hertl. The fourth line is weak, but the strength of the first three lines more than makes up for it.<br />
<br />
Defense: Marc-Eduoard Vlasic and Justin Braun formed a very good shutdown pair last year. Dan Boyle is still decent enough. Scott Hannan and Brad Stuart might have made a good third pair three years ago, but not so much today. No wonder San Jose is built to cycle in the offensive zone.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Antti Niemi looks like one of the game's best netminders, and I don't see any reason to not expect a strong season again.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : They've been good-to-great for a long time; no reason to expect that to suddenly change, unless they decide to trade Thornton, Marleau, and/or Boyle (all UFAs in 2014). <br />
<br />
<b>3. Vancouver*</b><br />
<br />
Lost: HC Alain Vigneault<br />
Gained: HC John Tortorella<br />
<br />
Forwards: Ryan Kesler is a bit of question mark—he hasn't quite returned to his previous Selke-level form. If he does, though—and he hasn't lost his special teams prowess—Vancouver should be a good possession team with great percentages. They have two top-line (ish) forwards on the first and second lines, and plenty of speed in the bottom six. That being said, their PP may suffer since Tortorella, unlike Vigneault, isn't exactly a guy with a history of running great power plays.<br />
<br />
Defense: No changes. Still have Kevin Bieksa, Dan Hamhuis, Jason Garrison, and Alex Edler as a strong top-four. If young Chris Tanev takes another step forward, could be the best blueline in the league.<br />
<br />
That is, if they mesh well with John Tortorella. If Torts brings his Tampa strategy, there shouldn't be much to worry about. But if he asks them to block shots and be passive defensively—when the team's strength is doing things with the puck, not without—there may be some issues.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Not having Schneider will hurt for the 20 games the backup has to play, but Eddie Lack has been really good in the minors, so he should be serviceable in the NHL. Roberto Luongo is likely still elite.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : Lots of talent, should be good if they mesh well with coach.<br />
<br />
<b>4. Edmonton*</b><br />
<br />
Lost: F Shawn Horcoff (trade), F Magnus Paajarvi (trade), HC Ralph Krueger<br />
Gained: F Boyd Gordon (UFA), F David Perron (trade), D Anton Belov (UFA), G Jason LaBarbera (UFA), HC Dallas Eakins<br />
<br />
Forwards:
This group is quite good, when healthy. Taylor Hall is the best LW in
the game, Jordan Eberle is a legit 1RW, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, when he's
fully healthy, should be a competent 1C. After those three, Sam Gagner
and David Perron are good second-line scorers, and Nail Yakupov is a
threat to take a huge step forward and become one of the better wingers
in the game in his own right. Linus Omark, Boyd Gordon, and Ales Hemsky should be fine third
liners...after that, it gets ugly, but like with San Jose, the top
three lines should be good enough—well, at least once RNH comes back.<br />
<br />
Defense: Eakins and MacT have talked quite a bit about puck possession, but regaining the puck may be an issue.
Jeff Petry and Ladislav Smid are good enough, but after them, there are
plenty of question marks. GM Craig MacTavish seems to have gone with
quantity over quality, with all of Edmonton's options possessing some
upside but not being sure things yet. Andrew Ference is getting up there
in years; Anton Belov still hasn't played a single game in the NHL;
Justin Schultz still needs to develop more to be a good 5v5 option;
Oscar Klefbom could make an impact right away, but as a young
defenseman, he'll probably need some more time; Nick Schultz needs a reliable puck-moving partner, which the Oilers may not have outside of Petry. Definitely a big source
of uncertainty for the Oilers. <br />
<br />
Goaltending: Devan Dubnyk is a solid starting netminder, and Jason LaBarbera was a nice backup signing by MacTavish, posting pretty sound numbers in Phoenix (though the Dave Tippett/Sean Burke effect is likely a contributor there).<br />
<br />
tl;dr : Lots of goals for and against. Might score enough to make playoffs.<br />
<br />
<b>5. Phoenix</b><br />
<br />
Lost: F Boyd Gordon (UFA), G Jason LaBarbera (UFA)<br />
Gained: F Mike Ribeiro (UFA)<br />
<br />
Forwards:
The Coyotes don't have any standouts up front, but there is a decent
amount of depth. Martin Hanzal, David Moss, and Antoine Vermette are
good two-way forwards, while Mike Ribeiro, Shane Doan, and Radim Vrbata add some scoring punch. Young Mikkel Boeddker could put it all together this year at last.<br />
<br />
Defense:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle, Zbynek Michalek, Derek Morris,
Rostislav Klesla, and potential star puck mover David Rundblad? Not bad
at all.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Mike Smith was fabulous in
2011-12, but didn't exactly have a good track record before that. Sean
Burke and Dave Tippett need to continue working their magic, or the
Coyotes could begin bleeding goals in a hurry.<br />
<br />
tl;dr
: Dave Tippett can probably keep this team decent, but they'll only
make the playoffs if their goaltending is good-to-great—and Mike Smith
is by no means a guarantee to be good (or even healthy).<br />
<br />
<b>6. Anaheim</b><br />
<br />
Lost: F Bobby Ryan (trade), D Toni Lydman (UFA, retirement), C Matthew Lombardi (UFA), C David Steckel (UFA)<br />
Gained: F Dustin Penner (UFA), F Jakub Silfverberg (trade), D Mark Fistric (UFA)<br />
<br />
Forwards: Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry can anchor a very good top line, and Teemu Selanne is still a good top-six player <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=200813&sit=5v4&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=skaters&minutes=500&disp=1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC">who can be a big part of your power play</a>.
After them, the Ducks will be banking on players like Devante
Smith-Pelly, Emerson Etem, Silfverberg, Peter Holland, and Kyle Palmieri
to develop quickly. Along with players like Saku Koivu, Daniel Winnik,
and Andrew Cogliano, there's plenty of speed, but not too many, well,
"good players." I don't think Bruce Boudreau is the type of coach to
excel without good players. <br />
<br />
Defense: Francois
Beachemin was quite good last year, and Cam Fowler should make an
outside push for the American Sochi team. The rest of the blueline is
minimally competent, I guess, but ideally your minimally competent
NHLers aren't forced to fill your second and third pairs...although if
Sami Vatanen and Hampus Lindholm can carry their strong AHL play over to
the NHL, the Ducks could be in surprisingly good shape.<br />
<br />
Goaltending: Viktor Fasth is more likely than not an average (or below) goaltender who just got hot to start his career (see <a href="http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/2/23/2005954/the-importance-of-a-goalies-first-15-games">here</a>
on James Reimer, who had a better start to his career than Fasth). But
Jonas Hiller, is a top-15 goalie, likely top-10, so Anaheim should be
fine. <br />
<br />
tl;dr : Good goaltending and special teams.
Need the kids to step up, because Getzlaf, Perry, Selanne, and Hiller
can't carry the entire team (well, alright, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSEOFKP7jqE">maybe sometimes</a>).<br />
<br />
<b>7. Calgary </b><br />
<br />
Lost: F Alex Tanguay<br />
Gained: F David Jones, F TJ Galiardi<br />
<br />
Forwards: lol. (Mike Cammalleri plus plenty of bottom-six or middle-six types, although Sven Baertschi and Sean Monahan could become stars.)<br />
<b> </b><br />
Defense: lol. (TJ Brodie is good, Mark Giordano and Dennis Wideman are competent, little else.)<br />
<br />
Goaltending: lol.<br />
<br />
tl;dr : It's hard to project Calgary finishing last in the conference—it's likely that another pretty bad team will get a dose of bad luck and end up passing the Flames—but if you had to bet on just one team, it's this one.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-84290890839409300122013-09-07T15:44:00.001-04:002013-09-07T16:05:14.900-04:00The Magical Metro Effect<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/learned-even-grabovski-capitals-just-borderline-playoff-team-105958945.html">lot</a> of <a href="http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/53166-NHL-Preseason-Predictions-Metropolitan-Division-No-6-Washington-Capitals.html">people</a> have <a href="http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2013/7/19/4509394/division-d-how-do-the-devils-stack-up">discussed</a> about how the Capitals will struggle in the new Metropolitan Division, being a borderline playoff team at best. Their arguments basically are derived from this:<br />
<br />
Caps vs Southeast, last two seasons: 27-11-4 (a 113pt pace)<br />
Caps vs Metro, last two seasons: 19-20-7 (an 80pt pace)<br />
<br />
I have several issues with that reasoning.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
First, just think about it: do you actually believe a team can play President's Trophy-caliber hockey against one division and be a lottery team against another? That's a huge difference.<br />
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<br /></div>
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2007-2008</div>
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2013</div>
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Team</div>
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Opp pts gained</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
Opp pts gained</div>
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Per 82</div>
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Pittsburgh</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
78</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
29</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
50</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
Philadelphia</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
85</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
53</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
91</div>
</td>
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<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
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New York Rangers</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
90</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
50</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
85</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
New York Islanders</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
104</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
54</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
92</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
New Jersey</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
86</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
61</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
104</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
Carolina</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
85</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
60</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
103</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
Columbus</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
101</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
59</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
101</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
Atlanta/Winnipeg</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 91.2pt;" valign="top" width="91"><div class="MsoNormal">
111</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
54</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
92</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 112.7pt;" valign="top" width="113"><div class="MsoNormal">
Florida</div>
</td>
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97</div>
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70</div>
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120</div>
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Tampa Bay</div>
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106</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
62</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
106</div>
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Metro Avg</div>
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90</div>
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52</div>
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89</div>
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Southeast Avg</div>
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100</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 89.5pt;" valign="top" width="90"><div class="MsoNormal">
62</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
105</div>
</td>
</tr>
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<br />
07-08 was The Year The Biggest Baddest Division Sent Four Teams To The Playoffs.* Considering Carolina finished 9th—losing out on a playoff spot on the last day of the season—this could be the strongest-case scenario for the Metropolitan Division. The Southleast (lol) division, meanwhile, only sent one team to the dance—Washington—and had two teams in the lottery. (Tampa picked Steven Stamkos first overall; Zach Bogosian went third to then-Atlanta; Nikita Filatov went 6th to Columbus; the Islanders would have picked fifth, but traded down.)<br />
<br />
<i>*I think the Central has been stronger for a couple of years now, and the Pacific was very strong back around 2008, but it's hard to convince people. To me, they're just like the fans of Western Conference teams who think the Eastern Conference is a cupcake. </i><br />
<br />
The key numbers to note here are in the last two rows, listing the average number of points gained by opponents of teams in each grouping. There's a 10-point difference between the Metropolitan and Southeast averages in both 2007-08 and 2013 (which rates to a 16-point difference per 82 games). <a href="http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2013/01/how-much-luck-in-shortened-nhl-season.html">Since the variance in the NHL standings due to randomness is much bigger in a 48-game season than in a full season</a>, I think it's fair to assume that had we seen 82 games, that 16-point gap would have narrowed slightly—maybe to 12 or 13.<br />
<br />
Is that significant? Absolutely. But look back up at the basis of our friends' arguments: the difference for the Capitals in terms of actual performance is 33 points. Ten points is less than a third of that. If the Big Bad Metro is truly that strong, its overall strength of schedule will be weak, meaning a below average team could accumulate 89 points in a season playing only the seven other Metro teams. If the Capitals are merely average, playing only the other seven Metro teams, they'd be on the playoff bubble; throw in games against the rest of the below-average league—oh, and Mikhail Grabovski, who should be worth a few points in the standings on his own—and that's a solid playoff team. <br />
<br />
The other question is ask here is whether the Capitals match up extraordinarily well with the other SE teams and very poorly against the Big Bad Atlantic. I don't think that's the case.<br />
<br />
For one, I think transitivity usually applies in hockey. If Team A is better than Team B, and Team B is better than Team C, then head-to-head, Team A should be able to beat Team C. Matchups I feel are significant only at the margins. The Capitals played the NE—a division with at least two, maybe three teams as good as the Atlantic's best, plus another which made the playoffs as well—at a 93-point pace in 2013. They played the Northeast at a 115-point pace in 2012, when the division had one great team, one good team, one mediocre team, and two bad teams. Combined, that's a 101-point pace.<br />
<br />
So Team X plays one division at a 113-point pace. It plays a second at a 101-point pace. It plays the third at an 80-point pace. The third plays the second at a 96-point pace, suggesting that it's slightly better than the second and that Team X could be above average in Division III. So tell me, how hard do you think that third division actually is?<br />
<br />
Second, I put together some charts to see if there's any patterns in differences between a team's points pace versus a certain division and outside that division. On the X-axis is the difference in points-per-game in Year 1, and on the Y-axis is the same metric in Year 2. I excluded Eastern Conference teams when Year 1 = 2011 and the division in question was the Central, Pacific, or Northwest (as well as the analogous case for Western Conference teams), since there was no inter-conference play in the appropriate Year 2 (aside from the Stanley Cup Final).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwDuohHY7xcXVEpuyf7thsl_VHwjYRlSpIHwzH3FiBr5JPpBmVFoGzNrlYNLm2BiBS9SL-mOonYM8rFWUBDrABzuO_BrT-4smpc4ndBD7H5VSqmt7C82gGk2FNtNFGfrdwO1o11Fa0HBfq/s1600/Untitled.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwDuohHY7xcXVEpuyf7thsl_VHwjYRlSpIHwzH3FiBr5JPpBmVFoGzNrlYNLm2BiBS9SL-mOonYM8rFWUBDrABzuO_BrT-4smpc4ndBD7H5VSqmt7C82gGk2FNtNFGfrdwO1o11Fa0HBfq/s640/Untitled.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
What can we see here? Given the small number of dots, this becomes a Rorschach test. I'd just like to point out a few things:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>The Capitals versus the Atlantic have not performed below their outside-Atlantic points per game average in consecutive seasons. They were underwater in 2013.</li>
<li>To Caps fans, all the dots in the bottom left quadrant for the Pacific are no surprise.</li>
<li>The Northeast dots are clustered around the middle.</li>
<li>Also unsurprising—the Capitals have performed better against the Southeast than they do outside it every season.</li>
</ul>
Here's what the entire league looks like:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMHuGxe_N03pXTebxEcBbZNHRjbiC1WU0J4PEoE5Kjcg8oS8Vq1YlUVHkr7JL5BgcML_hKuipfvf5yVArRwpl-DjF4OT8Znha3Sd_ZJ7N4UTw2CV0ZnFOmodOhWOmYVINp0tSoWspWaOF7/s1600/Untitled2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMHuGxe_N03pXTebxEcBbZNHRjbiC1WU0J4PEoE5Kjcg8oS8Vq1YlUVHkr7JL5BgcML_hKuipfvf5yVArRwpl-DjF4OT8Znha3Sd_ZJ7N4UTw2CV0ZnFOmodOhWOmYVINp0tSoWspWaOF7/s640/Untitled2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
I added the charts for individual divisions at the bottom. It looks to me like the Southeast is shifted <i>slightly</i> up and to the right—so teams can consistently perform better against the Southeast than outside it—and the Northeast, Central, and Atlantic are shifted slightly to the left. Slightly.<br />
<br />
Oh, and before I forget, there's one more thing I need to mention:<br />
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<br /></div>
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2011-12</div>
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2013</div>
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Per 82</div>
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2013-14</div>
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Pittsburgh</div>
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3</div>
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5</div>
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Philadelphia</div>
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3</div>
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5</div>
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4</div>
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NY Rangers</div>
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5</div>
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4</div>
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NY Islanders</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
New Jersey</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
3</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Carolina</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
6</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
9</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
5</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Columbus</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
0</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
0</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Winnipeg</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
6</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
9</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
2</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Florida</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
6</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
7</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
3</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Tampa Bay</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
6</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
7</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
3</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Metro total</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
27</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
20</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
34</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 12.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
29</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.95pt;" valign="top" width="75"><div class="MsoNormal">
Southeast total</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 56.45pt;" valign="top" width="56"><div class="MsoNormal">
24</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 40.5pt;" valign="top" width="41"><div class="MsoNormal">
18</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 45.0pt;" valign="top" width="45"><div class="MsoNormal">
31</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 58.5pt;" valign="top" width="59"><div class="MsoNormal">
13</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The Capitals' extra games against the Metropolitan division are actually<i> against Columbus</i>. I think the Blue Jackets are the worst team in the division. (I'm not high on Nathan Horton, who'll be out until December anyway, and given even odds, I'd bet against Sergei Bobrovsky posting a .930—or even a .920—next season. That'll cost the BJs something like 20 goals in goal differential.)<br />
<br />
I have to believe that the difference we've observed for the Capitals over the past two seasons is far less significant than it's sometimes assumed. We'd like to believe that the records teams have are truly indicative of team quality, but they're not—they're just a sampling of that quality. We <i>expect</i> the record to be reflective of a team's true quality in the long run, but here are 30 teams in this league, so thanks to randomness, some are bound to have better or worse records than their "true quality." Especially when we're talking about just 30 games—<i>less than half the amount needed for <a href="http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2013/01/luck-vs-talent-in-nhl-standings.html">skill to become more important than luck in the standings</a></i>.<br />
<br />
The Caps' bad games in 2013 just happened to be against future Metro teams, and their better games—for you people who find it admirable to have <a href="http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/2/10/1978386/feel-the-playoff-momentum">momentum going into the playoffs</a>—were division games heading into the playoffs.<br />
<br />
(It's probably also worth noting that after coaching changes, we expect an adjustment period, and the Caps have had two of those in the last two years. The adjustment periods came largely before the run into the playoffs, when most of the non-divisional games happen.)<br />
<br />
The schedule does change things. Relative to 2011-12, the Capitals lost three games against each of Florida and Tampa Bay, plus four against Winnipeg. They also lost a game against each team in the Northeast division—considering how strong that division has become over the last two years, that's a good thing. They added two or three games against Detroit, which will be tough, and added one or two games against each team in the Western Conference, which isn't as strong as it has been in the past.* Want to replace ten cupcake Southeast games? Try Calgary x 2, Colorado x 2, Nashville x 2, and Columbus x 3. That's nine out of ten, and one remaining game doesn't change the status of a team from "solid playoff team" to "bubble." <br />
<br />
<i>*Nashville, Phoenix, Dallas, Colorado, Calgary, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Anaheim look like below-average teams to me, and the only elite teams are Los Angeles and Chicago. I think there are five such teams out East now—Pittsburgh, Montreal, Boston, Ottawa, and Detroit—with only Tampa Bay, Florida, Buffalo, Toronto, and Columbus being solidly below average.</i><br />
<br />
Look, the bottom line is this: the Capitals are not as bad a team as they looked for the first ~15 games last season. Their results won't be as good as they got in the final 20 games of last season, either. But replacing Ribeiro with Grabovski is an upgrade. Getting Erat and Laich for full seasons is an upgrade. Getting an older, more mature John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Braden Holtby, and Marcus Johansson is an upgrade.<br />
<br />
The Capitals were an <a href="http://timeonice.com/mplayershots1213close.php?team=WSH&first=20400&last=20720&hv=0">~even possession team for the last half of the season</a>. Without<i> </i>their 2C (Ribeiro) on the ice, <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_5.php?sort=26&section=corsi&mingp=&mintoi=&team=WSH&pos=F">they were basically even as well</a>, and over that final stretch, they were in the black. With Grabovski and Erat in the mix, they should be a positive possession team—or, at least, nonnegative—all the time. Throw in above-average netminding, shot quality/finishing ability (it may not be significant, <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=200912&sit=5v5&sort=PDO&sortdir=DESC">but it's there</a>), and average special teams (good power play, poor penalty kill), and <a href="http://www.shutdownline.com/hurricanes/season-previews/carolina-vs-the-metropolitan-division-washington-capitals.html">this is a playoff team</a>.<br />
<br />
I don't think Washington is a lock, like Pittsburgh, Detroit, Ottawa, Montreal, and Boston—it's always possible the team hits some major injury issues or really bad luck, or there's some sort of chemistry disaster with Erat and Grabovski trending Nylander, and I don't think their margin of error is big enough to keep them in the playoff picture in those cases—but among the rest of the teams vying for those final three playoff spots, the Capitals, on paper, look as good as anyone. Sure, the "anyone" includes all the bubble teams, but the Capitals were a bubble team in 2012 and 2013, too.<br />
<br />
The move to the Metro, at worst, doesn't really change anything. <br />
<br />
Charts from above:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv3KHoZEfpGqZvX6n3uWqqPhjc0ttgsFk_1jcJ726qGwxAcW-fqM8AroKAAFTScA-9ZTFUNEUrBS6VVIAtBUoKIZD7i5hyEhJcK9TUmaY3D3N5IKMc1PlQeZo3ocGTH-I7o-QZ3TkKST-O/s1600/Atlantic.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv3KHoZEfpGqZvX6n3uWqqPhjc0ttgsFk_1jcJ726qGwxAcW-fqM8AroKAAFTScA-9ZTFUNEUrBS6VVIAtBUoKIZD7i5hyEhJcK9TUmaY3D3N5IKMc1PlQeZo3ocGTH-I7o-QZ3TkKST-O/s640/Atlantic.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghYQSrxeXTUE4WYBYb7AL_srLm1ndAl8y6DJghaYuhyphenhyphenyXjBPRqaGqWqfrT2Qi1nEXwpp485edWAa0s4DnenAj_lLCziaS_DVrMydJ5FiuWGEPWoVMkEZ5etS7pBCPROhyphenhyphen9FC1-46Kp8PF8/s1600/Northeast.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghYQSrxeXTUE4WYBYb7AL_srLm1ndAl8y6DJghaYuhyphenhyphenyXjBPRqaGqWqfrT2Qi1nEXwpp485edWAa0s4DnenAj_lLCziaS_DVrMydJ5FiuWGEPWoVMkEZ5etS7pBCPROhyphenhyphen9FC1-46Kp8PF8/s640/Northeast.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-20439485959944098632013-09-05T14:16:00.001-04:002013-09-05T14:16:19.106-04:00AO/Backstrom WOWY<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In the vein of what MC79 did <a href="http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6248">here</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEios0myNBimpLYqgFypZx7-0b617Z8ZGCSV26ohsIgZiJ9_aO5DTOHhQ66kXb9GPzCoz9WF2sXJvQpUb9OvLuDynosmYNpu_r90Kz95DC_EXytu2oodFKAeMIgY8Byxsh-BjBK57K8_hJej/s1600/ao19wowy.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEios0myNBimpLYqgFypZx7-0b617Z8ZGCSV26ohsIgZiJ9_aO5DTOHhQ66kXb9GPzCoz9WF2sXJvQpUb9OvLuDynosmYNpu_r90Kz95DC_EXytu2oodFKAeMIgY8Byxsh-BjBK57K8_hJej/s640/ao19wowy.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
It's probably worth noting that the decline in 2011-12 was in large part thanks to Backstrom's injury—it led to Ovechkin being centered by players like Brooks Laich and Marcus Johansson instead. I'm guessing Green's injuries had to do with the downturn in 10-11 and 11-12, too.<br />
<br />
Regardless, not a pretty picture.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-1853203838400907642013-08-21T03:02:00.001-04:002013-08-21T03:05:54.812-04:00TOIComp Effects, Part 1<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
When I <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/08/2013-toicomp-leaders.html">ran the numbers for TOIComp</a>, I was a little disappointed—but not surprised—that the spread between top and bottom competition (for valuable regulars) was so small. After all, we observe the same thing for Corsi Rel QoC, and <a href="http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/23/the-importance-of-quality-of-competition">differences at the season level in that metric don't appear to appreciably alter players' results</a>. I felt that a similar study on TOIComp would be more work for the same result, but I'll do it anyway (after prompting from <a href="https://twitter.com/garik16">@garik16</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/pcunneen19">@pcunneen19</a>).<br />
<br />
Hopefully, there's something interesting in the data this time.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br />
The simplest way to tackle this problem is to separate players into buckets. We need to develop two bucketing systems: one for individuals, and one for groups of players. (Why? <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_distribution">The spread of group averages will be smaller than the spread for individual observations that form the group.</a>) So first, let's take a look at individuals:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAvOZ3MfSKirKq1aeTPb1tg7zSOPGxdrGKB0FzXu7TE0n5uwZZSc_Z5Opn6LjbrFiFrCcnYSJJ7vLcZ_8ckx7eJ80QO8xc5XUEXgCGlshH3o8tZ1OK86duGdL_VFuxs7gdmQeRBpUFW16B/s1600/toi60+dist.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAvOZ3MfSKirKq1aeTPb1tg7zSOPGxdrGKB0FzXu7TE0n5uwZZSc_Z5Opn6LjbrFiFrCcnYSJJ7vLcZ_8ckx7eJ80QO8xc5XUEXgCGlshH3o8tZ1OK86duGdL_VFuxs7gdmQeRBpUFW16B/s640/toi60+dist.png" width="640" /></a><br />
We have six seasons of data here—about 5300 player-seasons (excluding goalies). When we sort players into buckets, we need to keep this in mind. We want the first bucket to contain the smallest values and the last bucket to contain the biggest values, with all buckets having a decent sample size. (I could aim for equal sample sizes, but I'll go for equal bucket width instead, which makes it easier to sort the players and change the number of buckets, if need be.)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWOg5UW-ucxiGRwZYexdvoW_ycVu1Ha4bm-oTS_KKV5VFEtxdZR1oZuiJFNfNDG45yoqQXrYttit0AlH2DniQqCAF3PM51YUxc4k8skyoGppe1e5A_GQEShlIm_d8F-AiBYvkAzgEwfCEW/s1600/shift+fcomp+freq2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWOg5UW-ucxiGRwZYexdvoW_ycVu1Ha4bm-oTS_KKV5VFEtxdZR1oZuiJFNfNDG45yoqQXrYttit0AlH2DniQqCAF3PM51YUxc4k8skyoGppe1e5A_GQEShlIm_d8F-AiBYvkAzgEwfCEW/s640/shift+fcomp+freq2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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I calculated the F TOIComp for each 5v5 Corsi event and tabulated those values here, and since the totals were getting quite big, I used percentages instead. (I really should have tabulated the F TOIComp based on actual shifts, not Corsi events, but this is just to get an idea of the spread and what bucket sizes I can use. I don't think using ice time would change the results all that much.) <br />
<br />
I decided to separate competition into half-minute buckets, starting from 11 minutes and ending at 22. For even spacing for individuals, I spaced the buckets every two minutes, starting at nine and ending at 21, forwards only. The numbers are not zone start-adjusted, and I intentionally squeezed the scale to focus on the differences in this range (and not the terrible results of low-TOI enforcers against top-six forwards).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj53aSpohTRtn1bXVBboxRKVKiQVXURc7mLyfmplEx7UIx7qngxi_gxcAY7xc6gzkr0gOZogxYUyHiqfNPhysYPyjVJCyIj1hFupQZsAxJ4MDEy2InKWgwoD3Mz8UEfLEG08H90J5dAW_El/s1600/even+smaller+buckets.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj53aSpohTRtn1bXVBboxRKVKiQVXURc7mLyfmplEx7UIx7qngxi_gxcAY7xc6gzkr0gOZogxYUyHiqfNPhysYPyjVJCyIj1hFupQZsAxJ4MDEy2InKWgwoD3Mz8UEfLEG08H90J5dAW_El/s640/even+smaller+buckets.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The graph is a little crazy. Each line is a span of individual TOI/60. There's a clear downward trend—not as clear as with Corsi Rel QoC, obviously, since TOIComp isn't directly based on Corsi like Corsi Rel QoC— with some sample size issues near the ends. As for differences, we're looking at around 56% for top players versus bottom players, and more like 47% for top players against a line of top players. Several other groups of players look like they experience a ~10 percentage point drop from competition of ~12 minutes to competition of ~19 minutes as well.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggM4naRjN3D_5PxbfnVUbkVDbsBTHBLNyGvnWHTys9qnrNUxFJGGjog_Kzqt31gpWgy8YLRXjtLntqzX8bMV5bS0IRV-Leoqk769zfuqZpqljdQGNbhRlJf5ovF_vjDCQQjADiN2L1xIrW/s1600/avg+corsi+ftoicomp.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggM4naRjN3D_5PxbfnVUbkVDbsBTHBLNyGvnWHTys9qnrNUxFJGGjog_Kzqt31gpWgy8YLRXjtLntqzX8bMV5bS0IRV-Leoqk769zfuqZpqljdQGNbhRlJf5ovF_vjDCQQjADiN2L1xIrW/s640/avg+corsi+ftoicomp.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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None of this should be surprising. In general, though, the spread of F TOIComp for an entire season isn't 12 to 19. For forwards with at least 200 minutes played in a season:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQONWFjvpxR0xI4de5uCf8Dl9D35DZ-2AmfOCsSXYBK0fSmk_Gb-x4m7kJ1835X-yGL97hdChcI2RTl0ddLimt4-JcT52yFqByBn5zwZC85mOZSKra29yFVb6grfTU3HJzkEdl9s3ugKeW/s1600/toicomp+freq.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQONWFjvpxR0xI4de5uCf8Dl9D35DZ-2AmfOCsSXYBK0fSmk_Gb-x4m7kJ1835X-yGL97hdChcI2RTl0ddLimt4-JcT52yFqByBn5zwZC85mOZSKra29yFVb6grfTU3HJzkEdl9s3ugKeW/s640/toicomp+freq.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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That spread only goes from ~14 to ~17. In our chart above, that looks like only a two or three percentage point difference in Corsi%, and that's at the extremes.<br />
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To put it visually, let's compare the percentage of ice time spent against each bucket for three 2007 Devils: Jay Pandolfo (who is the one player falling in the 17-17.5 range above), Patrik Elias (who is a little over 16 minutes), and Mike Rupp (who is one of the few players in the 14-14.5 range):<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj22Lbnslj44kG7rekPzRSVTksQRGXIXIW7EuKuEH4-DzXPZhzp-9FV3upyApyVUXEnL0mY0HlG9sYF1EqUlSanOf6NRcCDWzFl71R0_KtIihQnVfbAnQah5NzIeWHwa9sffWSG6a0gl2I7/s1600/toi+prop+elias+rupp+pandolfo.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj22Lbnslj44kG7rekPzRSVTksQRGXIXIW7EuKuEH4-DzXPZhzp-9FV3upyApyVUXEnL0mY0HlG9sYF1EqUlSanOf6NRcCDWzFl71R0_KtIihQnVfbAnQah5NzIeWHwa9sffWSG6a0gl2I7/s640/toi+prop+elias+rupp+pandolfo.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Rupp, an enforcer (unsurprisingly among enforcers in F TOIComp) has a high point at nearly 20% of his ice time coming against sub-11min F TOIComp competition. Pandolfo also has lots of ice time against top-tier opponents. This is pretty much the most extreme chart there will be.<br />
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Here's one with the top-ranking forward in F TOIComp with at least 1000 5v5 minutes played in 2007, John Madden (16.91), versus a middling player from that list (Dustin Brown, 16.03) and the bottom forward of the 68 (Matthew Lombardi, 15.52):<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAXGbKQcIdeg7b32otRLMJYurNlYORdqh_nQ6orabnADoy3rjWJ43NvIPDCx8VuE40J_8ZlAht2DSGxK26BG-ni0xiV5e4LlwuVHhsnW26zzkwSQ4OsZj77s1S_xfuUiHmwnmQJze3CmTT/s1600/brown+madden+lombardi.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAXGbKQcIdeg7b32otRLMJYurNlYORdqh_nQ6orabnADoy3rjWJ43NvIPDCx8VuE40J_8ZlAht2DSGxK26BG-ni0xiV5e4LlwuVHhsnW26zzkwSQ4OsZj77s1S_xfuUiHmwnmQJze3CmTT/s640/brown+madden+lombardi.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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From the link above:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Using the curve for the average player on the first chart, we can
calculate that Nodl’s 95th percentile usage is only harsh enough to bump
an average player’s Corsi down to 49.5%, while Betts’ 13th percentile
usage would be soft enough to allow an average player to post a 50.6%
Corsi.</i></blockquote>
Using our average Corsi% graph, a player can expect a ~52% Corsi against 14-14.5 minute F TOIComp. Regular (i.e. better than 4th-liner) NHLers, at the low end, can expect between 50% and 51% Corsi in their 15-16 F TOIComp. At the high end, a 16-17 minute F TOIComp player can expect to go a little under 50%. It's hard to slap a precise number to describe effect of F TOIComp, but the effect of going from the top to the bottom appears to be in line with what Eric T. found earlier.<br />
<br />
That being said, we haven't looked at D TOIComp like this, and I think we need to check both F TOIComp and D TOIComp against on-ice shooting and save percentages as well. <a href="http://www.mc79hockey.com/">Tyler Dellow</a> has also been examining Corsi% after a faceoff versus in "open play," and it's possible that differences in quality of competition are more important, say, after a faceoff than otherwise. There's also the issue of good players suppressing other good players' numbers, making the effects of quality of competition seem smaller than they actually are. Stay tuned.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-84968893338456949892013-08-12T01:07:00.002-04:002013-08-12T02:27:46.535-04:002013 TOIComp leaders<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Here are the top 30 skaters by TOIComp. I only included the 609 skaters who played at least 36,000 man-minutes versus forwards—at three forwards per second, this is about 200 5v5 minutes. <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am1TRosU-eyAdDhqdmR1NE9TWWhudXJLOTJXUlVBX2c&usp=sharing">You can find the complete lists here,</a> and I posted a preliminary version of the code <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html">here</a>. <br />
<a name='more'></a>Top 30 vs F:<br />
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Player</div>
</td>
<td style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
F TOIComp</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
1</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Phaneuf</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.58</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
2</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Chara</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.47</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Girardi</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.47</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
4</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Z. Michalek</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.41</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
5</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Ladd</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.40</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
6</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Marleau</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.39</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
7</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Zetterberg</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.38</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
8</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
B. Gionta</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.37</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
9</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Little</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.36</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
10</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Kulemin</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.35</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Plekanec</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.35</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
12</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Wheeler</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.33</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Brouwer</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.33</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
14</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Kopecky</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.30</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
15</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Ekman-Larsson</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.29</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Dupuis</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.29</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Fleischmann</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.29</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
18</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Goc</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.28</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
19</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Bogosian</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.27</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Bouwmeester</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.27</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 21;">
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21</div>
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Pominville</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.26</div>
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22</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Stepan</div>
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16.25</div>
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<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Orpik</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.25</div>
</td>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
24</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Carlson</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.24</div>
</td>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Giroux</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.24</div>
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26</div>
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Backstrom</div>
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16.23</div>
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<br /></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Weiss</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.23</div>
</td>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
28</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
McDonagh</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.22</div>
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29</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Datsyuk</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.21</div>
</td>
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<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Couture</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
16.21</div>
</td>
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<br />
The entire spread here is about 20 seconds—not exactly a lot. I'm a little more impressed by the offensive options here, since those guys will get ice time against the low-TOI defensive players when their team is down by a goal, meaning that in their tough minutes, they played an elevated TOIComp. <br />
<br />
If you're surprised to see Backstrom here, <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/08/caps-toicomp.html">given my post the other day</a>, note that he still ranks behind Brouwer and Carlson, and he would have ranked behind Brooks Laich, but Laich didn't make the TOI cutoff.<br />
<br />
And vs D:<br />
<br />
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Rank</div>
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Player</div>
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D TOIComp</div>
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1</div>
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Giroux</div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
21.10</div>
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2</div>
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Pominville</div>
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21.08</div>
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3</div>
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St. Louis</div>
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21.04</div>
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<br /></div>
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Stamkos</div>
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21.04</div>
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5</div>
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Vanek</div>
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21.01</div>
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6</div>
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Hodgson</div>
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20.99</div>
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7</div>
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Crosby</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.94</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
8</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
H. Sedin</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.90</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
D. Sedin</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.90</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Voracek</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.90</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
11</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Bozak</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.89</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
12</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Ovechkin</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.88</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Moulson</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.88</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
14</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Kessel</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.85</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Malkin</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.85</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
16</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Tavares</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.84</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
17</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
E. Staal</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.83</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Van Riemsdyk</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.83</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
19</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Hartnell</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.82</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Benn</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.82</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 21;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Perry</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.82</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 22;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
22</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Kunitz</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.80</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 23;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
23</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Boyes</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.79</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 24;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
24</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Duchene</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.77</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 25;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
25</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Conacher</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.76</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 26;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Semin</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.76</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 27;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Toews</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.76</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 28;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Burrows</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.76</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 29;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
29</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Timonen</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.75</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 30;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Tlusty</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.75</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 31;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Saad</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.75</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 32; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 37.15pt;" valign="top" width="37"><div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 98.75pt;" valign="top" width="99"><div class="MsoNormal">
Hossa</div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 1.0in;" valign="top" width="72"><div class="MsoNormal">
20.75</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Lots of linemates here—no surprises. The spread is again only about 20 seconds from 1 to 30. A little interesting to see both Crosby and Malkin (I'm guessing that's a result of Malkin taking top opposition with Crosby out). </div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-69894347761601285792013-08-09T01:50:00.003-04:002013-08-09T01:53:19.594-04:00Caps TOIComp 07-10<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In case you missed it, <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/08/caps-toicomp.html">yesterday I broke down TOIComp</a> for the three recent Caps coaches (Boudreau, Hunter, and Oates) to see how they deployed their players. To follow up, I want to look at Glen Hanlon's team in 07-08, followed by Boudreau's habits during the Ovechkin-led Caps' peak.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Just a viewing note: since I'm using Google charts, you're best off viewing these in Chrome or Firefox, so you can hover over bubbles for more details. I've linked to the images of the charts if you can't view them, though.<br />
<br />
First, <a href="http://i.imgur.com/uvgQg7h.png" target="_blank">07-08, Hanlon</a>:<br />
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Pettinger (25p), Clark, and Bradley look like they were used in a checking role (though I don't know who centered them). Ovechkin got top defensemen, Erskine was sheltered from top forwards, and aside from that, nothing looks clear to me. (Keep in mind we're only looking at ~20 games here, so I don't think that ~20sec difference in F TOIComp between Mike Green and Tom Poti is all that significant.)<br />
<br />
I omitted Matt Bradley and Donald Brashear since they were off to the bottom left (at 14.9, 19.3, and 14.5,19.4 respectively) and stretching the scale.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/F1O8GN0.png" target="_blank">Moving on to Boudreau</a>: <br />
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Here we see a familiar picture. For me, the surprising part is how far to the right we see Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn, and (especially) Michael Nylander.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/zTAr8uL.png" target="_blank">08-09</a>:<br />
<br />
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I had to remove quite a few names with low TOI to remove some of the clutter (you'll recall that the Capitals were quite banged up that season). The only notable from that group is Brian Pothier—the rest were marginal NHL or AHL types like Chris Bourque, Alexandre Giroux, and Bryan Helmer. In case you've forgotten some of the <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/WSH/2009.html">player numbers here</a>, 32 is Chris Clark, 87 Donald Brashear, 26 Shaone Morrisonn, 25 Viktor Kozlov, 89 Tyler Sloan, and 23 Milan Jurcina. Behind 91 (Sergei Fedorov) is 55 (Jeff Schultz), 14 (Tomas Fleischmann) is partly covered by 32 (Clark), and 26 (Morrisonn) is all the way at the back, below 89 (Sloan) and above 21 (Laich).<br />
<br />
There's not much new here, <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/08/caps-toicomp.html">if you looked at the 2010-11 TOIComp chart from yesterday</a>—Boudreau ended up running a power-versus-power-ish scheme, perhaps unintentionally since he didn't play matchups meticulously enough to achieve the sort of top-six bottom-six separation that Adam Oates did. I'm not surprised to see Tom Poti off to the right again—come to think of it, his injuries and general decline could have been a significant factor in the Caps' overall decline, too.<br />
<br />
I am a little surprised that Boudreau would match Laich, Steckel, and Bradley to Crosby's line in the playoffs considering that two of the three didn't appear to have <i>that</i> much trust from their coach during the regular season.
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://i.imgur.com/N1X66Xs.png" target="_blank">09-10</a>:<br />
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18 is Eric Belanger, 77 Joe Corvo, 9 Brendan Morrison, 53 Quintin Laing. Ovechkin's 8 partly hides Backstrom's 19, Brian Pothier (2) is behind Karl Alzner (27), Eric Fehr (16) is just below David Steckel (39) and Matt Bradley (10), and Milan Jurcina (23) is partly hiding Alexander Semin (28).<br />
<br />
The clear division here between Ovechkin/Backstrom/Semin/Knuble at the rest of the forwards makes sense to me—the first two and one of the last two were the Caps' most frequent top lines that season, by far, while there was a lot of roster juggling through the rest of the lineup. It's a little sad that Joe Corvo, in his short time here, saw a higher F TOIComp than Green-Schultz. And again, Tom Poti is playing important minutes.<br />
<br />
In sum, matchup-wise, it looks to me like Oates is following in Boudreau's footsteps. Their best forwards see the other team's best (although perhaps for different reasons). Oates looks like pays a little more attention to D-matchups than Boudreau—it looks like the current Anaheim bench boss had a clear preference for one shutdown defenseman or pair and didn't differentiate all that much otherwise (a trend which continued in Anaheim, with Souray-Beauchemin his new Poti or Carlson-Alzner, it looks like), while Oates looked like wanted his top-four facing good players, without a single clear preference in the longer run. </div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-71333797611192046652013-08-08T01:19:00.000-04:002013-08-08T01:28:40.653-04:00Caps TOIComp<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
It took awhile, but I finally got this done. (I'm still tweaking the code, so it'll be a few days before I publish it <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
A few notes:<br />
<br />
a) I calculated TOI/60 by dividing individual 5v5 TOI by team 5v5 TOI (only counting games in which the player played). This differs from Behind the Net's TOI/60, which is 5v5 (and 6v5) TOI per game.<br />
b) The bubble size is total 5v5 TOI this season (well, almost—it's actually the amount of man-seconds played against forwards. Let's just say that this only differs from time on ice when a team does not put three forwards on the ice).<br />
c) Small sample caveats apply to the smaller bubbles, and remember context and line changes and such will play a role.<br />
<br />
Red is forwards, blue are D.
Hover over a bubble for additional information.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<script src="//ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/static/modules/gviz/1.0/chart.js" type="text/javascript"> {"dataSourceUrl":"//docs.google.com/spreadsheet/tq?key=0Am1TRosU-eyAdDVxazNUVkZ1OGlub2EzVHNDQVFhdVE&transpose=0&headers=1&range=C1%3AG29&gid=0&pub=1","options":{"vAxes":[{"title":"Avg D TOI/60","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":19.4,"viewWindowMode":"explicit","viewWindow":{"min":19.4,"max":null},"maxValue":null},{"useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null}],"titleTextStyle":{"bold":true,"color":"#000","fontSize":16},"bubble":{"opacity":"0.6"},"title":"WSH TOICOMP 12-13","booleanRole":"certainty","height":382,"animation":{"duration":500},"colors":["#3366CC","#DC3912","#FF9900","#109618","#990099","#0099C6","#DD4477","#66AA00","#B82E2E","#316395","#994499","#22AA99","#AAAA11","#6633CC","#E67300","#8B0707","#651067","#329262","#5574A6","#3B3EAC","#B77322","#16D620","#B91383","#F4359E","#9C5935","#A9C413","#2A778D","#668D1C","#BEA413","#0C5922","#743411"],"legend":"none","width":714,"hAxis":{"title":"Avg F TOI/60","useFormatFromData":true,"minValue":null,"viewWindow":{"min":null,"max":null},"maxValue":null},"tooltip":{}},"state":{},"view":{"columns":[0,1,2,{"label":"Pos","properties":{"role":"annotation"},"sourceColumn":3},4]},"isDefaultVisualization":true,"chartType":"BubbleChart","chartName":"Chart 1"} </script>
Some observations:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>This isn't straight-up power versus power, but it looks similar. Top-six forwards face other top-six forwards, bottom-six forwards face other bottom-six forwards. </li>
<li>There's a huge difference between Mike Ribeiro (who is behind Martin Erat, a little to the left of Marcus Johansson) and Mathieu Perreault (who is near the bottom to the left of center). I'll be the first to say that Perreault deserves a shot at 2C (unless the Caps pick up Grabovski), but I don't think he'll be a huge success—he scores at a borderline top-line rate in sheltered minutes, and it's not much of a drop-off from borderline top-line (say, ~30 among centers) to middling second line (~45 among centers).</li>
<li>Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich (in small sample) are already all the way to the right. Martin Erat has been there in the past, <a href="http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/16/a-competition-metric-based-on-ice-time" target="_blank">ranking first among forwards in F TOIComp faced in 2011-12</a>. I hope Adam Oates uses them in that role...</li>
<li>...he sure didn't put Joel Ward there, even though Ward has a history of playing defensive minutes. Granted, when your fourth line is sheltered like that (Beagle, Volpatti, and Crabb are the three red circles in the bottom left), I guess you need a solid player like Ward to help them out. This is a change from the Boudreau days, when Gordon, Bradley, Steckel, and company could go out his fourth line against good opponents (see below).</li>
<li>Steve Oleksy was good in sheltered minutes. If the Caps are going to have no one better at 3RD, well, you could do worse. Hopefully Kundratek takes a step forward (or the Caps sign Gilbert on the cheap—he was a 1D in Edmonton and now can't even make any "best UFAs left" lists).</li>
<li>Seeing Erskine face higher F TOIComp and D TOIComp than Green makes me sad.</li>
<li>Also, if Wolski wasn't worthy of being in the lineup, why is he closer to the top-six than the bottom-six?</li>
</ul>
Let's compare this to 11-12, Hunter-era only (removing Joel Rechlicz, who was by himself near the bottom, and Cody Eakin, who is just outside the picture, on an island by himself at the bottom left):
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Karl Alzner is the one being cut off on the right side (I wanted to use the same scale for each chart). Also, notice John Erskine on the left.
Now, 10-11 (removing DJ King, who is far off to the left, and Sean Collins, who was far off to the bottom and left, who were stretching the scale):
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It's tough to see, but Ovechkin is right behind Backstrom and Carlson and Alzner are basically the same circle, unsurprisingly. 44a is Jason Arnott, 44f Brian Fahey.<br />
<br />
Maybe Boudreau ran more power-on-power than I give him credit for (or he just didn't care that much). It's certainly interesting to see how this became trusting the grinders with tough defensive minutes, to trying a (I'd say) power-on-power approach, and something that bears watching into the future—if Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom can post solid ES numbers while playing against top lines or second lines, let's just say that bodes really, really well for the future success of this team.
</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-4207108267448650772013-07-29T01:24:00.002-04:002013-07-29T01:29:30.776-04:00Ideas for a touches app<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
With all the coding I've been doing recently (both for my <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html" target="_blank">NHL code</a> and for real-life projects) I got to thinking about maybe writing a puck-tracking app. I've written something similar for tracking shot locations for basketball, and I thought the only changes I'd have to make would be to track the location of the mouse, not just clicks, and somehow incorporate a clock as well as figure out a way to separate carries from passes and dumps as well as changes of possession. One person could chart the movement of the puck, and someone else, watching later, could match that information up to which players handled the puck. Not only do we quickly consolidate the scoring chance, zone entry, and zone exit projects (the latter two of which are <a href="https://twitter.com/pcunneen19" target="_blank">looking for help</a> for next season), but we add a ton of data on top of that.<br />
<br />
Then, I remembered <a href="http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/3/9/2034922/pass-charting-the-way-of-the-intercepting-tablet" target="_blank">this article from Arctic Ice Hockey</a>. Tracing the path of a puck on a tablet is much faster and more accurate, I'm guessing, than tracing the path on a computer screen. One person could track the movement, and one person the players, as before. Since so many people have iPads, I thought about writing an app, but then I saw it costs $99 to get a developer's license for a year—more than I want to spend for just one app. But it's free (I think) to put up Android apps, a lot of people have Android tablets or phones, and thanks to <a href="http://beta.appinventor.mit.edu/" target="_blank">this tool I discovered from MIT</a>, it might be surprisingly straightforward to get this thing up and tested relatively quickly.<br />
<br />
Before I start, I'd like some feedback.<br />
<br />
a) Do you think it's feasible to track touches for entire games? (It would basically need to be done without looking at the tablet/phone at all.)<br />
<br />
b) How would you design the app?<br />
<br />
Obviously, I think the answer to (a) is "yes." To (b), here's my vision:<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
You open up the app, and it asks for a season and game number.<br />
<br />
The clock starts stopped. You start the clock by double tapping (or maybe hitting a start button...although a phone may not be big enough for that). You drag your finger around the rink to mimic the motion of the puck—maybe the tracker moves one second behind game time—and the app records the (x,y) position every tenth of a second or so. You drag your finger to indicate carries, tap to indicate a single touch (like on a one-time touch or pass). <br />
<br />
I was thinking about different ways to indicate other types of puck movement—passing and uncontrolled puck movement, like dump-ins and chips out of the zone—but I think we can infer passes from successive carries by the same team, and infer turnovers from when a carry by one team leads to a carry by another. (Keep in mind the play-by-play has a lot of information, too, so we need not track something like shots.)<br />
<br />
Stoppages and the running clock might be tricky. To indicate the goalie covering the puck, one could drag the puck to the crease and release, and after some set time delay (maybe three seconds) the app automatically stops the clock and asks you to enter the current time. For a puck out of the playing area, drag your finger quickly out of the rink (which might be slightly smaller than the actual screen) and let go, and again, after some time delay the app asks you to reset the clock. For something else, like a penalty or an offsides, maybe a two-finger press, one in the offensive zone and one in the defensive zone, and again, the app asks for a clock reset. It automatically ends at the end of a period.<br />
<br />
At the end of the game, it exports the data (or finishes exporting it) in some sort of spreadsheet format, which is just an (x,y) every tenth of a second or so.<br />
<br />
Someone watching the game later has to go through this data and indicate which player made each touch. (This wouldn't necessarily even require another app, if the app exports another spreadsheet with just a list of touches and their start and end times. One player per touch. I could write something for a computer to visualize the touches first, though.) That doesn't sound too hard—people who watch their team a lot can probably identify every player on their favorite team without even needing to see the jersey number, and so could use the number pad on a computer to type in numbers. (With a little practice, I could see this second person not even needing to pause the game. Remember, on average there is a faceoff or more a minute, so there's plenty of time to catch up.)<br />
<br />
In sum, one person tracks puck movement for both teams. Another tracks which players got touches, either for one team or both, and, if necessary, another person tracks the player numbers for the other team. At the end of it all, we hopefully have a treasure trove of information.<br />
<br />
So now I'll again ask the questions I posed above. a) Do you think one person could track touches for both team for an entire game in this way? b) If yes, how should a touches app be designed? What revisions (minor or major) would you make to my suggested design above?</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-61546480332913736142013-07-27T16:14:00.003-04:002013-07-27T16:27:56.194-04:00Ribeiro will be missed<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
One thing I've been meaning to do for awhile is look at how good a playmaker Mike Ribeiro is at even strength (along the lines of <a href="http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/17/quantifying-players-impact-on-teammate-shooting-percentage" target="_blank">this post</a> examining other top playmakers, like Sidney Crosby, Henrik Sedin, and Pavel Datsyuk).<br />
<br />
If you look at Ribeiro's <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=MIKERIBEIRO" target="_blank">Behind the Net player card</a>, you'll notice that he consistently has a very good on-ice shooting percentage. That does not mean that he is a good playmaker by itself, though: good players play with other good players, and good scorers can elevate shooting percentage though their own efforts (shooting skill, like Steven Stamkos and Ilya Kovalchuk, or getting to better locations, like Alexander Semin with his little toe-drag before every wrist shot). But Ribeiro in particular doesn't really shoot or score enough to elevate that on-ice shooting percentage himself, and he's usually been a second-line center, so it's likely that he does have some significant playmaking skill that elevates his on-ice shooting percentage to top-line level. The question is, how much, and how much will the Capitals suffer as a result.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
To estimate his playmaking talent without going into shot locations, I first made a list of every skater who has spent at least 200 5v5 minutes with Ribeiro. (I only used players who played a full season on the same NHL team as Ribeiro, to avoid situations like James Neal going to Pittsburgh.) I compared the 5v5 shooting percentages with Ribeiro and without him using the <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=652&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5" target="_blank">tools at Hockey Analysis</a>. (Ideally we look at every player who has taken a shot or missed shot and compare Fenwick shooting percentages, but that's more work than i want to do right now).<br />
<br />
You can check out the full list in the spreadsheet <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am1TRosU-eyAdFlNOGJjMlBmXzU5S3FHbEpSQkdIQ0E&usp=sharing" target="_blank">here</a>. Long story short, only Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green, James Neal, Michael Ryder, Karl Alzner, and Trevor Daley saw their individual shooting percentage fall with Ribeiro on the ice, and only Daley has more than 100 shots both with and without Ribeiro. (One hundred shots still isn't that much.)<br />
<br />
For good measure, approximating this sample of shots as a binomial variable*, we can be pretty confident Ribeiro is a substantially above average playmaker. The players shot 9.2% with Ribeiro on about 1800 shots, compared to 8.2% on about 3000 shots without. A one point bump in shooting percentage is obviously an extra goal per 100 shots. To translate that to possession indicators, that's roughly equivalent to going from 50% Fenwick to 56% Fenwick, or a goal every seven games or so at 14.0 5v5 on-ice shots per game, Ribeiro's rate this past season <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_5.php?sort=34&section=corsi&mingp=40&mintoi=&team=WSH&pos=" target="_blank">per BtN</a>.<br />
<br />
<i>*If you're unfamiliar with the terminology, this means approximating shots on goal as independent events, with each having an equal chance of going in. That's obviously not true, but it's much simpler and faster than the alternatives. The probability I'm using here is the total shooting percentage of Ribeiro's frequent teammates without Ribeiro on the ice.</i><br />
<br />
Because I limited the sample arbitrarily, I probably introduced some biases into the sample. As a group, forwards take more shots per unit ice time than defensemen, so I probably cut off some forwards who would be as relevant to this sample as the defensemen. That means that the average shooting percentage I'm using as the mean in the binomial calculations may be a bit high—after all, forwards shoot for a better percentage than defensemen. But that would only make Ribeiro look even better than he does now.<br />
<br />
For a point of comparison, here are the estimated playmaking bumps from the article linked above (which, it should be noted, using linemates' total shooting percentage, not merely shooting percentage without the player in question):<br />
<br />
H. Sedin: 9.6% to 10.8%<br />
Crosby: 8.5% to 10.6% <br />
Malkin: 9.1% to 10.3%<br />
Ovechkin: 9.1% to 9.9%<br />
Backstrom: 9.4% to 10.1%<br />
<br />
(And in case you were wondering, <a href="http://www.shutdownline.com/hurricanes/statistical-analysis/is-alex-semin-good-enough-to-boost-his-teammate-s-shooting-percentage.html" target="_blank">Alexander Semin looks like a pretty good playmaker</a>, too.) <br />
<br />
Even though those differences look significant, keep in mind that it takes six goals for a marginal win, and these guys are on the ice for only a few hundred 5v5 shots a season. I'd peg Ribeiro's playmaking talent at worth about one win a year.<br />
<br />
And two more to note, Ribeiro's replacements:<br />
<br />
Perreault: 6.0% with (~450 shots), 7.4% without (~2000 shots)<br />
Laich (11-12 only): 8.4% with (275 shots), 6.2% without (~600 shots)<br />
<br />
<i>(The reason I use only 2011-12 for Laich is because that's the only year he played center full-time. For a bigger picture, one could look at shots with Laich on ice without one of the Caps' full-time centers: Backstrom, Fedorov, Morrison, Gordon, Arnott, etc)</i><br />
<br />
There's roughly a 30% chance Perreault looks that bad on luck alone—less than half a standard deviation away from the mean—and about 20% Laich looks that good based on luck alone (again, assuming a bunch of things about individual shots). For a better estimate, you could regress the shooting percentages to league average based on the number of shots. (We should be in the other cases, too, but their samples are so big that—I hope—the difference would be minimal.) With that many on-ice shots, we can't really estimate a significant playmaking impact for either of these players, which means that, they need to be significantly better than Ribeiro possession-wise to adequately replace him at five-aside.<br />
<br />
With this in mind, here's my take on the 2C situation:<br />
<br />
1) <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_4.php?sort=29&section=corsi&mingp=30&mintoi=2&team=ALL&pos=" target="_blank">The (5on4) power play, with Ribeiro on the ice, shot over 25%</a>. That's not sustainable—only Philadelphia has broken 17% shooting at 5-on-4 in a full season since 07-08. With or without Ribeiro, a power play drop off is inevitable.<br />
<br />
2) Ribeiro's value is closely linked to the power play (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20132WSHSASALL&sort=powerPlayPoints&viewName=points" target="_blank">where he scored over half his points</a>). Power play regression = Ribeiro regression. When the power play is worse next year, there will be a lot of unnecessary angst over it, when a substantial part of that is due to worse-than-awesome puck luck.<br />
<br />
3) Ribeiro has been a <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=200813&sit=5v4&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=skaters&minutes=500&disp=1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC" target="_blank">legitimately strong player at 5v4 for years</a>, so losing him will lead to a legitimately worse power play, all else equal. But I don't think value of an elite power play threat is nearly as big as it's made out to be—the estimates I've seen peg special teams talent as around 10-15% of team success moving forward, about a third or a fourth of even strength shot differential. There is no adequate replacement to offset that much puck luck, and it's not worth crediting Ribeiro with that puck luck. Long story short, the Capitals lost one really good power play player, and one player does not a power play make.<br />
<br />
4) Ribeiro isn't a good Fenwick player, so part of his playmaking skills at 5v5 go toward offsetting his negative shot differential. That being said, he's probably not as bad as the numbers indicated this season (-10.3 Corsi Rel) because <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_time_on_ice_stats.php?ds=8&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f5=WSH&c=0+1+3+5+8+9+10+11+12+13+14+15+16+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28" target="_blank">he spent a lot of time</a> with guys who don't "drive possession" (e.g. Brouwer) or weren't "driving possession" at the time (e.g. Ovechkin). Give him good linemates and he'll come close to breaking even possession-wise. That makes him worth one win a year from his even-strength playmaking, and a few extra goals from the power play. But as a 33-year-old, that's as good as it will get, and it could fall off sharply any year.<br />
<br />
5) The Capitals have a potential replacement in Mathieu Perreault who is a far better possession player (<a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1226&withagainst=true&season=2007-12&sit=5v5" target="_blank">career 54.1% Corsi</a>) but hasn't proven himself to be so much better than the possession advantage completely offsets the playmaking advantage. (Again, we're looking for at least 56% Corsi or Fenwick if Ribeiro can break even in Corsi with reasonably good linemates, and plus, Perreault has played more sheltered minutes.) That being said, Perreault also helps his own cause with personal shooting percentage more than Ribeiro (although he doesn't shoot more on a per-minute basis: at 5v5, <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1226" target="_blank">5.3 shots/60 for Perreault</a>, <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=652" target="_blank">5.8 for Ribeiro</a>). <br />
<br />
6) A player like Perreault moving up the lineup creates a hole in the bottom six. Move someone else to 3C (like Laich) and you've created another hole. Eventually you get to the point where Ribeiro is better than a replacement, so the Caps could be a worse team today than they were in April. Not much worse—and we haven't even considered better health from Brooks Laich and a full season from Martin Erat, which could more than compensate for Ribeiro's loss—but as much as I bang the "Ribeiro is overrated" drum, I don't think the team is better off at even strength without him, all else equal. In other words, this isn't addition by subtraction.<br />
<br />
7) Grabovski, who is decent on the power play and quite good at even strength, was the best solution at 2C on July 5, and still is today. Go get him, GMGM.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-68114052114414528892013-07-22T12:53:00.001-04:002013-07-22T18:53:46.047-04:00Picking the European contenders<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
To follow up from my post over the weekend <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/07/pretending-to-be-olympic-gm.html" target="_blank">picking USA and Canada,</a> I continue by picking Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Admittedly I'm not familiar with the talent in the SHL, SM Liiga, and KHL, so I'll leave some roster spots open. In Vancouver, Sweden brought one G, one D, and two F that were not playing in the NHL (and one of them was Peter Forsberg), and Finland brought one G, one D, and three F, so I'll leave one roster spot open at each position for the the two top Scandinavian teams. Russia, on the other hand, brought nine KHL players—three D and six F—but four were in the NHL the previous season (Dmitri Kalinin, Sergei Fedorov, Viktor Kozlov, Alexander Radulov). I'll just leave at least three forward and two defense spots open, maybe more.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>Sweden</b><br />
<br />
12F: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Nicklas Backstrom, Loui Eriksson, Carl Hagelin, Patrik Berglund, Patric Hornqvist, Gabriel Landeskog, Alexander Steen<br />
<br />
Most of these players are locks. Steen, Zetterberg, Backstrom, Landeskog, and Eriksson are all strong two-way players, and there's plenty of scoring. The ridiculously fast Hagelin consistently posts a great Corsi Rel, and his size will be less of an issue on international ice, where (I'm guessing) cycling isn't as important.<br />
<br />
7D: Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Victor Hedman, Tobias Enstrom, Alexander Edler, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Niklas Kronwall<br />
<br />
Karlsson, Ekman-Larsson, Hedman, and Kronwall should be locks. Hjalmarsson should be after the reaction to his strong playoff performance was "he's been doing this all season." Edler brings too much puck-moving ability to ignore. The last spot came down to Enstrom vs Tallinder, and I went with the guy I feel is a better puck mover—the team already has three (maybe four) defensemen who are rocks in their own end.<br />
<br />
2G: Henrik Lundqvist, Robin Lehner<br />
<br />
Lundqvist is an easy choice. Normally I see people picking Gustavsson, Fasth, Markstrom, or Lindback as a second goalie. I'd rather pick a high-upside small-sample goalie than a big-sample below-average one, and Lehner actually has a stellar .925 in 22 starts in his NHL career, besting Fasth (.921) and Markstrom (.905).<br />
<br />
<b>Finland</b><br />
<br />
12F: Mikko Koivu, Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne, Jussi Jokinen, Olli Jokinen, Valtteri Filppula, Mikael Granlund, Niklas Hagman, Lauri Korpikoski, Aleksander Barkov, Toni Rajala, Joel Armia<br />
<br />
There simply weren't that many good Finnish players in the league this year, so I had to reach into the prospect pile to grab Barkov, Rajala (who tore up the AHL this season, but is a little small), and Armia (who should be joining the AHL this season after being productinve in Finland). Teuvo Teravainen I'm guessing will be one of the European-league Finns to make the team.<br />
<br />
6D: Kimmo Timonen, Sami Salo, Toni Lydman, Sami Vatanen, Joni Pitkanen, Rasmus Ristolainen<br />
<br />
I had trouble finding enough D, too. Vatanen was really good in the AHL, and Ristolainen from what I've read was trusted with a lot of ice time against men in Finland, so I assume Buffalo will want him over at first opportunity.<br />
<br />
2G: Antti Niemi, Tuukka Rask<br />
<br />
If Finland takes another NHL goalie—and it should—Pekka Rinne and Kari Lehtonen are options.<br />
<br />
<b>Russia</b><br />
<br />
7F: Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Pavel Datsyuk, Evgeni Malkin, Nail Yakupov, Artem Anisimov, Vladimir Tarasenko<br />
<br />
From the KHL, Ilya Kovalchuk and Alexander Radulov are locks, and after his strong season playing with Malkin, Sergei Mozyakin I think is a good bet, too. So is Evgeny Kuznetsov. If it were up to me, I'd also have Nikolai Kulemin, too, as a strong two-way player, but I had to leave spots open.<br />
<br />
6D: Andrei Markov, Sergei Gonchar, Slava Voynov, Fedor Tyutin, Dmitri Kulikov, Nikita Nikitin<br />
<br />
I wanted Alexei Emelin, too, but I left spots open for the KHL to audition its own players. (I anticipate Nikitin will lose a spot, too, either in favor of a KHLer or Anton Volchenkov.) Nikitin isn't a popular choice, but he and Tyutin make a really good pairing for Columbus, and Russia needs every little edge (like familiarity) it can get defensively. <br />
<br />
3G: Ilya Bryzgalov, Anton Khudobin, Sergei Bobrovsky<br />
<br />
I didn't like leaving off Varlamov, but his performance has suffered in Colorado. Bryz still has upside it's hard to ignore (see his performance in Phoenix), and Bob obviously just won the Vezina Trophy.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-40568468875817603342013-07-20T14:50:00.003-04:002013-07-22T11:52:26.022-04:00Pretending to be an Olympic GM<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Since <a href="http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/07/21/drafting-a-canadian-olympic-hockey-team/" target="_blank">everyone</a> <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-on-hockey/22820063/olympics-team-usa-roster-projection-revised" target="_blank">has</a> <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/columnist/allen/2013/07/20/team-usa-olympic-hockey-team-projections/2571391/" target="_blank">been</a> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/olympic-teams-revisited-team-usa-sochi-151317145.html" target="_blank">doing</a> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/olympic-teams-revisited-team-canada-sochi-140401738.html" target="_blank">these</a> now that an agreement for NHLers to go to the 2014 Olympics has been reached, I figured I'd have a go, too.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><b>Canada</b><br />
<br />
13 F: Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Patrice Bergeron, Claude Giroux, Taylor Hall, Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, Jordan Staal, Corey Perry, Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau, Rick Nash, Matt Duchene<br />
<br />
Skill isn't an issue. I wanted speed, which is why Marleau and Duchene are here over Ryan Getzlaf, and I wanted Jordan Staal's superior two-way ability instead of Eric Staal (thereby freeing up Toews for offense). I also considered Mike Richards and Jeff Carter, but decided there are better players. I also think Joe Thornton took a step back this season (couldn't play power on power and come out ahead anymore), so I took his teammate Couture instead.<br />
<br />
<i>Edit: <a href="https://twitter.com/b1rky" target="_blank">@b1rky</a> points out</i> <i>that I forgot John Tavares. Whoops. Get rid of Duchene (who is not as good) or Corey Perry (who shares the skating issues), I guess.</i> <br />
<br />
8D: Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Weber, Kris Letang, P.K. Subban, Duncan Keith, Jay Bouwmeester, Dan Hamhuis <br />
<br />
Most of these guys are easy choices. I added Bouwmeester and Hamhuis as lefties (leaving off Seabrook). I considered leaving off Letang because he's not that big, but his agility gives him the edge over, say Mike Green (who is not as fast as he once was).<br />
<br />
3G: Roberto Luongo, Carey Price, Cam Ward<br />
<br />
For once, Canada is a little weak in net (relatively speaking). But Ward I think is <i>slighty</i> better than Marc-Andre Fleury, and Price is the only other goalie (aside from Luongo) who has had a stellar season recently.<br />
<br />
<i>Edit: I should have James Reimer there instead of Ward. Ward is probably an average starter; Reimer is average or a little better on over 3000 shots against, even though a decent chunk of those came after he rushed back from a concussion. Plus, the dude doesn't get nearly enough credit for <strike>recognition</strike> what<strike></strike> he did this season.</i><br />
<br />
<b>USA</b><br />
<br />
13F: Zach Parise, Bobby Ryan, Ryan Kesler, Joe Pavelski, T.J. Oshie, Phil Kessel, Patrick Kane, Derek Stepan, Blake Wheeler, Max Pacioretty, Ryan Callahan, David Backes, Dustin Brown<b> </b><br />
<br />
Stepan and Wheeler have developed really nicely into top-line forwards. The rest of the choices shouldn't be controversial. The team will really be banking on Kessel, Kane, Ryan, and Parise to provide the Canada-level scoring, but there's plenty of depth in case that doesn't work out.<br />
<br />
8D: Ryan Suter, Ryan McDonagh, Matt Carle, John Carlson, Brooks Orpik, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dustin Byfuglien, Paul Martin<br />
<br />
Carle should be a lock—he's a very solid even-strength defenseman. (In Philly, he wasn't as good as Kimmo Timonen, but more than held his own while having to carry 6/7/8 D types with him.) I considered leaving off Brooks Orpik, but he and Martin were an effective pairing this year in Pittsburgh, so I left him on (even though Orpik was a disaster with anyone else).<br />
<br />
I wanted Tom Gilbert, who is another solid ES D, but instead I picked Carlson (who I think is better) and two guys who, unlike the rest of the blueliners, can help the power play in Shattenkirk and Byfuglien. Byfuglien can also add size up front if need be, and <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2011&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=D&handed=&c1stat=shots&c1comp=gt&c1val=500&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=shots" target="_blank">is really able to get shots through from the point.</a> He and Shattenkirk are also right shots on a blueline that figures to have lefties Suter, McDonagh, Martin, and Carle be lineup staples. (That's why I left off the lefty Yandle.)<br />
<br />
By the way, I'm not comfortable with <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=JACKJOHNSON" target="_blank">this guy</a> being on the team, and I'm not too confident in <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=ERIKJOHNSON" target="_blank">this guy</a>. I also considered Ryan Whitney, who had developed nicely into a 1D in Edmonton, but he's lost a lot of skating ability after ankle injuries.<br />
<br />
3G: Cory Schneider, Jimmy Howard, Jonathan Quick <br />
<br />
Easy. <b> </b></div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-27826704318436971092013-07-20T01:07:00.001-04:002013-07-20T01:31:24.020-04:00Division D is rough<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHY_AtxtgdTJkcApPZ-Uu8a6wW3O9TYQ2JcPt6QHvhgnHQf0BeR1fXFFq9BF9zPm6FvjBGAzQ5po8LQy8lb6efxAn6o9ktIFQ-FuKvWNKPkxeLwlWV-_eUmtP-9dwMeUaTuBb-Ci_vbRWy/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-07-20+at+12.54.08+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHY_AtxtgdTJkcApPZ-Uu8a6wW3O9TYQ2JcPt6QHvhgnHQf0BeR1fXFFq9BF9zPm6FvjBGAzQ5po8LQy8lb6efxAn6o9ktIFQ-FuKvWNKPkxeLwlWV-_eUmtP-9dwMeUaTuBb-Ci_vbRWy/s640/Screen+Shot+2013-07-20+at+12.54.08+AM.png" width="608" /></a></div>
<br />
Some of the yellow ones could have gone either way, and I might have been a bit generous with the greens. It's also worth noting that it's tough to judge the West teams moving east because there was no interconference play. (If you follow the people that I do on Twitter, you know that quite a few fans of Western Conference teams thought the West was much better than the East this year. Not sure I believe that, especially with the emergence of Montreal as a strong possession team.) That being said, certainly looks like the Capitals got stuck in the tougher conference—the one with better team quality and more teams competing for the same eight playoff spots—and perhaps in the toughest division as well.<br />
<br />
Unless George McPhee makes a major upgrade to the team between now and October (hint: <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/07/free-agency-targets-claim-mikhail.html" target="_blank">signing Grabovski</a> would do the trick), the Capitals don't stand out from the many second-tier teams in the East. (The first tier would be Detroit, Boston, Montreal, Pittsburgh, and <i>maybe</i> Ottawa.) That means that there's a realistic shot Washington misses the playoffs. The same goes for every other second-tier team.<br />
<br />
I really hope this is somehow all worth it in the end for Caps land.<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Boston—lost Seguin, Peverley, and Ference, added Iginla and Eriksson. Not sure they covered their losses, exactly, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt: they have young D that could step in.</li>
<li>Montreal—did the Canadiens do anything?</li>
<li>Tampa Bay—added Filppula, lost Lecavalier. Meh.</li>
<li>Florida—lost Weiss, but he was hurt most of the year, anyway. Young team, but I'm not convinced their youth will lead to rapid improvement immediately.</li>
<li>Detroit—lost Filppula, added Weiss and Alfredsson. Sounds like a win.</li>
<li>Buffalo—Re-acquired Tallinder.</li>
<li>Ottawa—lost Alfredsson, but signed MacArthur and should have Erik Karlsson healthy again.</li>
<li>Toronto—net loss of talent up front, but Randy Carlyle will actually play Clarkson more than he did Grabovski and MacArthur (who couldn't do much good on the bench or in the bottom six).</li>
<li>Columbus—added Horton, get a full year of Gaborik.</li>
<li>Washington—full year of Erat and Laich, no slow start again (probably)</li>
<li>New Jersey—lost Kovalchuk and Clarkson, got Clowe, who doesn't replace either of them. Old team, too.</li>
<li>Philadelphia—added Lecavalier and Streit. Still need to dump a contract, but even if it's Coburn, I'm calling this a net win.</li>
<li>Carolina—nothing to note here. Skinner should bounce back, and I anticipate better possession numbers from Eric Staal and Alexander Semin, but I'm not certain.</li>
<li>N.Y. Islanders—young team got better as the year went along, but lost Streit and Boyes.</li>
<li>Pittsburgh—will have more health from Crosby and Letang.</li>
<li>N.Y. Rangers—new coach...dunno what will happen here.</li>
<li>Colorado—MacKinnon is one of those guys I think will be a game-changer right from the start. Also, more from Ryan O'Reilly.</li>
<li>Chicago—nothing much to note here. Don't like Handzus staying in the lineup, but they ditched Bolland (who wasn't as good last season as he was a few years ago) and have young players ready to step in.</li>
<li>St. Louis—young team that replaced Perron with Paajarvi and added Roy, who may or may not be an impact player (he used to be, but he's been hurt a lot recently)</li>
<li>Winnipeg—Yawn.</li>
<li>Nashville—Added Seth Jones and a bunch of bottom-six forwards. Okay...</li>
<li>Dallas—I like adding Seguin for Eriksson. Throw in Gonchar, Peverley, and Horcoff, and this team is better.</li>
<li>Minnesota—Lots and lots of good youth here.</li>
<li>Vancouver—Lost Roy, but he was hurt a lot.</li>
<li>Phoenix—lost Gordon, got Ribeiro. Net possession negative.</li>
<li>Anaheim—Yawn.</li>
<li>Calgary—Already bad team, lost Iginla and Bouwmeester via trade, and not enough youth to compensate.</li>
<li>Los Angeles—<a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/blog/eye-on-hockey/22800149/how-the-los-angeles-kings-corsid-their-way-to-the-nhls-elite" target="_blank">sometimes they seem like they build with Corsi</a>, sometimes they trade for Robyn Regehr and sign him to extensions while letting Rob Scuderi walk.</li>
<li>Edmonton—lots of really good youth (i.e. first-overall picks). Also may not have a single AHL-level D playing in the NHL this year, which is a departure from recent history.</li>
<li>San Jose—Yawn. </li>
</ul>
</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-88296743178318499812013-07-04T12:38:00.002-04:002013-07-06T23:16:00.621-04:00Free agency targets--Sign Grabovski!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
My take on <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/ufa-finder/?position_id=-1" target="_blank">notable UFAs</a> and trade targets, and whether they may be a fit in Washington:<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/null" name="more"></a>First, the UFAs. I don't think this team is looking at right-handed wingers too hard, since they've already got a solid--and expensive--group of four in Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr, and Joel Ward. So let's just look at centers, lefty wingers, and defensemen. First, the forwards:<br />
<br />
<strike><b>Stephen Weiss, C, 30</b></strike> <i>Update: signed with Detroit</i><br />
<br />
Weiss' age scares me a little from giving him term, but he's scored like a high-end 2nd line forward for years and is good defensively as well. <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=STEPHENWEISS" target="_blank">His last two seasons scare me a little</a>, but I think the potential reward is worth the risk. I'd offer him $5m for sure, but I don't know that going up to $6m in a cap world is a good idea.<br />
<br />
<strike><b>Vincent Lecavalier, C, 33</b></strike> <i>Update: signed with Philadelphia</i><br />
<br />
Lecavalier is a pretty good player, better at 5v5 than Ribeiro and more of a scorer. His contract with Philadelphia is surprisingly not too bad. It's a little annoying seeing a team like Philadelphia being able to somehow snap up free agents even when their cap situation suggests otherwise, while teams that could actually accommodate those FAs without making a significant trade/buyout or two lose out. Oh well.<br />
<br />
<b><strike>Mike Ribeiro, C, 33</strike> </b><i>Update: signed with Phoenix</i><br />
<br />
Chances are, if you're reading this, that you know Ribeiro isn't even close to "the answer" at 2C. Lest you need reminding, though...<br />
<br />
In economics, "costs" don't merely include paying for materials, power, etc--they also include the opportunity cost, or the best alternative. (e.g. If you invest in the market with a 1% inflation-adjusted rate of return, yes, you're making money, but why do that when you can stuff it in a bank at 2%?) Applying this to hockey makes sense, especially in a salary cap world. You can't just be spending money to make your team better--you have to make sure there's no more efficient way to spend the money.
Ribeiro had himself a productive season, but did a lot of his scoring on the PP, when basically every player sees their scoring rate go up. The next best alternative, Mathieu Perreault, could probably replace almost all of Ribeiro's ES scoring given exactly the same minutes, and probably a good deal of the power play scoring, too. Brooks Laich at 2C wouldn't provide as much offense, but would be better defensively and should break even (unlike Ribeiro). Are the few extra assists on the power play (and the ripple-down effect of putting Laich on the wing and Perreault at 3C, roles in which they're both quite good) really worth ~$5m over 5 yrs to a guy who is already 33?<br />
<br />
The other way to think about this is that <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_5.php?sort=22&section=goals&mingp=30&mintoi=&team=WSH&pos=F" target="_blank">Ribeiro was outscored at 5v5 by his opponents</a>. I'm sorry, no second-line cornerstone on a Cup contender should be getting outscored by his opponents at fives. It's embarrassing, and at his age, it's not going to get any better.<br />
<br />
I think the only real fit for him on a good team is where he can center two very good wings who play both ends of the ice (like Chicago--Sharp and either Kane or Hossa usually play on the second line--except with cap room to sign him with term).<br />
<br />
<strike><b>Patrik Elias, LW, 37</b></strike><b> </b><i>Update: signed with New Jersey</i><br />
<br />
I like Elias a lot. <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=PATRIKELIAS" target="_blank">He has a long history of good results at 5v5</a>, and for the Caps specifically, a left-handed playmaker like him would be valuable taking Ribeiro's spot on PP1 and feeding pucks to Ovechkin at ES. especially since he's a left-handed playmaker that Oates already has experience getting the most out of. But he's a career Devil, and having already won a Cup, I don't think he's leaving New Jersey.<br />
<br />
<b>Jaromir Jagr, RW, 41</b><br />
<br />
Jagr, a lefty, would have to move to LW under Oates, I assume, but he could also fill Ribeiro's spot on the PP. (As a bonus, he's much more trigger-happy than Ribeiro, and I think the extra shooting threat would help the power play.) Given that how many teams he's played for, though, and his age, I assume he'll choose a team he hasn't played for yet, and one that also has a good chance at a title. I don't think the Capitals fit either criterion.<br />
<br />
<b>Vinny Prospal, LW, 38</b><br />
<br />
Prospal is an interesting target. He's a left-handed playmaker (exactly two assists per goal in his NHL career) who has won a Cup. He's produced at least 0.6 points per game four years in a row, spending all four on poor offensive teams (the first two years with the Rangers and the last two with the Blue Jackets). His relative shot differentials and plus-minus <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=VACLAVPROSPAL%20VINNYPROSPAL" target="_blank">are consistently good</a>, and this team could use that reliable 9%+ on-ice shooting percentage. He's also a little more trigger-happy than Ribeiro, even at just ~2 shots a game. (Seriously, Ribeiro only took 63 shots in 48 games. That's not good at all.)<br />
<br />
Coming off consecutive and identical <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/player/887" target="_blank">one-year deals which each paid him $2.5m</a>, I'd be willing to take a look. He has said, though, that <a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nhl/695/vaclav-prospal" target="_blank">he wants to stay with the Blue Jackets</a>.<br />
<br />
<b><strike>Tyler Bozak, C, 27</strike> </b><i>Update: signed with Toronto</i><br />
<br />
Just no. Randy Carlyle seems to love him, but he drags down Phil Kessel and really everyone else he plays with. He's fine as a 3C, but some team will want him as a 2C or even 1C when <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=TYLERBOZAK" target="_blank">he just doesn't have the offensive acumen or defensive dominance for it.</a> (If you're not convinced, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?sitesearch=theleafsnation.com&q=bozak&commit=Search" target="_blank">there's been plenty written on the subject</a>.)<br />
<br />
<b>Derek Roy, C, 30</b><br />
<br />
Roy is a risky option. He gets injured regularly. <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=DEREKROY" target="_blank">He did have a decent season for himself this year</a>, though...depends on term. I wouldn't want to commit too much.<br />
<br />
<b><strike>Saku Koivu, C, 38</strike> </b><i>Update: signed with Anaheim</i><br />
<br />
Old. Pass. <br />
<br />
<strike><b>Matt Cullen, C, 36</b></strike><i> Update: signed with Nashville</i><br />
<br />
Getting up there in years. A one-year stopgap who doesn't drastically improve the team doesn't interest me--all a player like that effectively does is drop the Caps' draft position a couple of spots. Pass. <br />
<br />
<b>Brenden Morrow, LW, 34 </b><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=BRENDENMORROW" target="_blank">He's not the player he once was</a>. Pass. <br />
<br />
<b><strike>Viktor Stalberg, LW, 27</strike> </b><i>Update: signed with Nashville</i><br />
<br />
Jason Chimera with slightly better hands, but with (possibly) a cap hit twice as big. Pass. <br />
<br />
<strike><b>Benoit Pouloit, LW, 26</b></strike><b> </b><i>Update: signed with NYR</i><br />
<br />
Like Wojtek Wolski, Pouliot bounces around a lot, I guess due to off-ice issues, mostly. <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=BENOITPOULIOT" target="_blank">On the ice, he scores like a top-six forward</a>. Good bargain potential here. <br />
<br />
<strike><b>Clarke MacArthur, LW, 28</b></strike><b> </b><i>Update: signed with Ottawa</i><br />
<br />
He had great chemistry with Grabovski and <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=CLARKEMACARTHUR" target="_blank">puts up very good possession numbers</a>. He seems like a guy who would be a great LW on one of the top two lines, or really, whichever line could use his gritty game. I'd take him, but he may not come cheap. <br />
<br />
<strike><b>Ryane Clowe, LW, 30</b></strike><b> </b><i>Update: signed with New Jersey</i><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2013/6/9/4411564/according-to-reports-ryane-clowe-suffered-three-concussions-this" target="_blank">The three concussions this year</a> and the fact that Fear the Fin--SBNation's stats-inclined Sharks blog--wasn't sad to see him ago makes me want to pass.<br />
<br />
<b>Nik Antropov, C, 33</b><br />
<br />
He would have been a better pickup a few years ago--his play has trailed off a little over the last couple of seasons. (And it's not like he's playing with nobodies--he had the chance to play with Evander Kane on Winnipeg's second line, if he was good.) <br />
<br />
<strike><b>Danny Briere, C, 35</b></strike><i> Edit: Briere to Montreal.</i><br />
<i> </i>
<br />
He's like Ribeiro--a lot of powerplay scoring, not that great at ES anymore. (He might be slightly better, though.) He's had some recent injury issues. As for his playoff scoring, a) again, he's doing a lot of it on the power play, where it's easier to score, and b) he's at an age where he could, unexpectedly yet unsurprisingly, go into rapid decline at any moment. Pass.<br />
<br />
<b>Kyle Wellwood, C, 30</b><br />
<br />
Although oft-maligned for fitness issues, <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=KYLEWELLWOOD" target="_blank">he has a track record</a> of posting decent Corsi numbers and scoring rates when given the chance. Could do worse, and he won't be expensive.<b> </b><br />
<br />
<b>Scott Gomez, C, 33</b><br />
<br />
Gomez is still competent in all three zones and is left-handed. He's probably more suited to a depth role if you want to build a strong team (he was a 3C or 4C in San Jose), but his speed and playmaking should make for a decent enough 3C who, playing with Laich and Ward, can play against top lines and do alright.<b> </b><br />
<br />
<strike><b>Boyd Gordon, C, 29</b></strike><b> </b><i>Update: signed with Edmonton</i><br />
<br />
Gordon would be a great addition as a <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20132PHXSASALL&sort=avgTOIPerGame&viewName=timeOnIce" target="_blank">(relatively) big-minutes</a>, <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20132PHXSASALL&sort=avgShortHandedTOIPerGame&viewName=timeOnIce" target="_blank">penalty-killing 3C</a> who <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_5.php?sort=10&section=goals&mingp=30&mintoi=&team=PHX&pos=F" target="_blank">plays top competition</a> with <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_5.php?sort=60&section=zonestart&mingp=30&mintoi=&team=PHX&pos=F" target="_blank">hard zone starts</a>, <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?gameType=2&position=S&season=20122013&sort=faceOffWinPctg&status=A&viewName=faceOffPercentage" target="_blank">wins faceoffs like few others</a>, and <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/2012/new_5_on_5.php?sort=26&section=corsi&mingp=30&mintoi=&team=PHX&pos=F" target="_blank">comes out ahead</a>. In the midst of the decline of the Caps' top-six, it's easy to forget that under Boudreau, <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-caps-decline-in-puck-possession.html" target="_blank">the third and fourth lines tended to be pretty strong as well</a>. Gordon reverses some of that if you put him in a Malhotra-type role and let him do what he does best.<br />
<br />
<b>Dustin Penner, LW, 30</b><br />
<br />
He was pretty good in Edmonton, but hasn't been the same player in Los Angeles (granted, he's not relied upon as much, either). Might command more salary and term than he should get. Pass. <br />
<br />
There are slim pickings on the blueline. Tom Gilbert is easily the best of the bunch, and even though he's a righty, he's probably the one righty actually worth signing. Even though the righty would probably end up on the third pair--behind Mike Green and John Carlson on the depth chart, of course--Gilbert is good enough to carry Jack Hillen, Dmitry Orlov, or John Erskine in the occasional shift against good players. (I mean, when you think about it, John Carlson carried Erskine this entire season against either top lines or second lines. It's not impossible, and Gilbert has done it before.) No Caps pairing will need to be aggressively protected, and five of the six D will be able to skate with the puck (maybe six, if Orlov is able to supplant Erskine in the lineup), which would be really nice. (I realize Gilbert had a tough time in Minnesota, but <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/1/16/2712532/oilers-adjusted-scoring-chances-by-quality-of-competition" target="_blank">he was very good in Edmonton</a>, and I'm not going to fault him too much for struggling in a big mess in Minnesota.)<br />
<br />
Anyway, here are the left-handed, more-mobile-than-Erskine, UFA D that could I could see replacing Erskine in the top-four: Andrew Ference (34), Ron Hainsey (32), Rob Scuderi (34), Filip Kuba (36), Wade Redden (36), Toni Lydman (35), Keith Ballard (30), and Carlo Colaiacovo (30). I think Lydman and Hainsey are guys that have flown under the radar for some time and wouldn't be too expensive.<br />
<br />
Finally, trade chatter I've seen:<br />
<br />
<b>Edmonton: RW Ales Hemsky (29) <strike>and C Shawn Horcoff (34)</strike></b><i> Edit: Horcoff to Dallas.</i><br />
<i> </i>
<br />
<a href="http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=424887" target="_blank">Craig MacTavish said he'd be willing to move Hemsky and Horcoff</a>. Horcoff is a pretty good 3C (or big-minutes shutdown 2C, which are rare nowadays but which Anaheim used to win a Cup in 2007) with a $5.5m cap hit for the next two seasons, so I'd pass on him. Although I didn't list any UFA RWs, I do think Hemsky is worth mentioning (...<a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2010/11/possible-trade-target-ales-hemsky.html" target="_blank">yet</a> <a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/06/stuff-to-watch-for.html" target="_blank">again</a>) because, unlike the UFAs, he's a potential buy-low candidate, is signed for only one season, and is both old enough to be a proven dynamic offensive player while young enough that his skills aren't at risk of going into major decline anytime soon. The issue with Hemsky is, of course, injuries. If the injury risk and Edmonton's depth at wing don't substantially lower the asking price, though, I'm not interested.<br />
<br />
<b>Philadelphia: D Braydon Coburn (28)</b><br />
<br />
Philadelphia is over next year's salary cap with Vinny Lecavalier now in the fold, so someone needs to go. <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/28/4475622/braydon-coburn-trade-flyers-rumors" target="_blank">It seems like Braydon Coburn is one name being shopped</a>. (I don't understand why Philadelphia is shopping its second-best D when it needs more help on the blueline, but whatever.) Coburn can skate and shoots left. I don't know what the potential return would be, but Coburn is still under 30, has a contract for a $4.5m cap hit for three more seasons, and <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=BRAYDONCOBURN" target="_blank">can beat tough minutes in the right situation</a>.<br />
<br />
I'm honestly not too worried about the division aspect of it. The Capitals and Flyers will meet either four or five times a year in the new division, which isn't really different from the four required meetings under the previous divisional alignment. They could meet in the playoffs, but while Philadelphia's starting goalie is <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2010&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=G&handed=&c1stat=games_goalie&c1comp=gt&c1val=150&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=save_pct" target="_blank"><i>Steve Mason</i></a>, I'm not worried about the Flyers beating the Capitals.<br />
<br />
<b>Boston: <strike>someone</strike></b><i> Edit: Uh, I guess sending Seguin and Peverley to Dallas for Eriksson solves this problem.</i><br />
<i> </i>
<br />
With 12 forwards, 7 D, and no goalies signed for <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/bruins/" target="_blank">next season, Boston has ~$5m in cap room</a>. Tuukka Rask's new deal is rumored to be in the $7m range per year. Add in Marc Savard's LTIR relief, and Boston can add ~$2m in salary, needing a backup goalie and another forward. I'm guessing Boston is willing to trade. (Supposedly Tyler Seguin's name was in play at the draft, but the asking price would be substantial to acquire him. Probably starting with something worth a lottery pick, and then some.)<br />
<br />
<b>Vancouver: D Alex Edler (27)</b><br />
<br />
I'm not sure exactly why Vancouver is shopping one of their top-4, but <a href="http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/canucks-hockey/Botchford+Canucks+still+shopping+Edler+around/8608634/story.html" target="_blank">apparently it's been happening</a>. Vancouver is not in dire need of cap room--they have nine forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies signed with over $7m in cap room. (One F and one D are RFAs, too.) Maybe the Canucks want to chase a top UFA and are willing to push Chris Tanev into a top-four role? Maybe they want to get rid of the left-side logjam? (Hamhuis, Garrison, and Edler are all LDs, <a href="http://canucksarmy.com/2013/7/3/should-the-canucks-sign-jonathan-blum" target="_blank">according to this</a>.)<br />
<br />
Edler is signed for six more seasons at $5m per season. He is at a pretty good age and will top 40 points when healthy and when getting good power play time. <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=ALEXANDEREDLER" target="_blank">He isn't a guy who puts up monster Corsi</a>, but his situation in Vancouver was a little awkward, so I'm willing to cut him a little slack.<br />
<br />
If he were on a one-year deal, I might be interested in seeing what he could do. But six years is an awful lot of risk for taking on a D that isn't a dominant presence. That being said, he's definitely an upgrade on Erskine, and he pushes Orlov and others onto the third pair for the foreseeable future, which makes the blueline a big strength for this team.<br />
<br />
<strike>Toronto: (speculation) C Mikhail Grabovski</strike> <b>Grabovski (29)</b> has been bought out and is a UFA.<br />
<br />
I'm dead serious when I write that <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=MIKHAILGRABOVSKI" target="_blank">he is the best player</a> (whose name is bolded) on this entire page. He can score at a near top-line level and he's good enough to carry a line (for the time being). If McPhee is able to acquire Grabovski for something somewhat reasonable--and coming off a down year offensively, he shouldn't cost <i>that</i> much--I will be really happy. And also actually pencil this team in as a Cup dark horse next season, and change that from "dark horse" to "contender" if Kuznetsov comes over and is good.<br />
<br />
This is the legit 2C you've been looking for. He has all the possession skills of Fedorov, but is better offensively. (And, in case you're wondering, work ethic isn't an issue with him.) Want.<br />
<br />
<b>Actually, GMGM, just claim him. Please.</b> Before he hits UFA. Claim him off waivers. He's worth his contract ($5.5m a year, four more years).<br />
<br /></div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-87561479212305381132013-07-01T01:24:00.003-04:002013-07-01T01:58:54.571-04:00Thoughts on the draft<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I only had the stamina to sit through the first round and most of the second, but luckily that's when most of the interesting stuff happened.<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<a name='more'></a><b>Cory Schneider to N.J for 9th overall pick (Bo Horvat)</b> <br />
<br />
TSN was saying that Edmonton made a much better offer to Vancouver for G Cory Schneider than the Devils made (9th overall pick). Supposedly, it was something along the lines of the 7th overall pick, a second-rounder, and a good prospect (or maybe that's what Vancouver was asking for; at any rate, Edmonton must have offered at least the 7th overall). I don't think I understand why Mike Gillis chose New Jersey's offer--is the prospect of improving a division rival (which already has a starting-caliber netminder, mind you, in Devan Dubnyk, meaning that the upgrade in net wouldn't be as significant as it would be for, say, the Islanders) really that much of a turn-off?<br />
<br />
Actually, come to think of it, maybe this is the new playoff format at work. <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=660138" target="_blank">From NHL.com</a>:<i> </i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The top three teams in each division will make up the first 12 teams
in the playoffs. The remaining four spots will be filled by the next two
highest-placed finishers in each conference, based on regular-season
points and regardless of division...</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>
</i><i>The seeding of the wild-card teams within each divisional playoff
will be determined on the basis of regular-season points. The division
winner with the most points in the conference will be matched against
the wild-card team with the fewest points; the division winner with the
second-most points in the conference will play the wild-card team with
the second fewest points.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>
</i><i>The teams finishing second and third in each division will play in
the first round of the playoffs. The winners of each series will play
for berths in the conference championship series.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>
</i><i>The winners of the conference championships advance to the Stanley Cup Final.</i></blockquote>
Vancouver will be in Division A, along with Calgary, Edmonton, Anaheim, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Jose. The other division in the "western" conference has Chicago, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Colorado, St. Louis, Nashville, and Dallas. I'm sure that Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Jose, Chicago, and St. Louis make the playoffs by virtue of top-three seedings in their divisions, but there's a real chance Vancouver (high seed) draws Edmonton (wild card). Although it's unlikely Schneider would steal a series against the Canucks--really, any goalie is a longshot to steal a given series--the Canucks organization would be thoroughly embarrassed if he did.<br />
<br />
That being said, for a team with as thin a prospect pool as Vancouver--the only projected top-six forwards are Jordan Schroeder and Nicklas Jensen, to my understanding--I was surprised to see it pick a guy like Horvat <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/18/4431126/bo-horvat-draft-comparables" target="_blank">who doesn't look like he'll be a difference-maker offensively</a> (unlike, say, Max Domi, Hunter Shinkaruk, or Valeri Nichushkin, who were all available for Vancouver to pick).<br />
<br />
I'm also a little surprised Schneider was the one traded. I thought that his contract was the more tradeable one, but pretty much every reputable source was saying Luongo would be the one leaving (at least, until a couple of days ago).<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
All in all, I think we can agree Roberto Luongo is the Michael Jordan of not being traded.<br />
— Bruce Arthur (@bruce_arthur) <a href="https://twitter.com/bruce_arthur/statuses/351441939490541569">June 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<b>Calgary and Philadelphia go off the board</b><br />
<br />
For the Flames' second first-round pick (22):<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Uh, Poirier probably would have been around at 28, you know that right CGY?<br />
— Kent Wilson (@Kent_Wilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kent_Wilson/statuses/351450024078614529">June 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
And their third-round pick (67):
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Flames picked a 6'5" goonish defenseman in the third round. Good god.<br />
— Kent Wilson (@Kent_Wilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kent_Wilson/statuses/351484870742118401">June 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Kanzig was ranked 194th amongst NA skaters by CSS. Holy crap.<br />
— Kent Wilson (@Kent_Wilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kent_Wilson/statuses/351492763247853571">July 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Philadelphia reached a little, picking Samuel Morin at 11, but I'm really focused on the third-round pick. From <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/30/4481012/tyrell-goulbourne-flyers-nhl-draft-2013" target="_blank">BSH</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph2">
<i>In that ISS guide, it summed up Goulbourne pretty clearly:</i></div>
<ul>
<li><i>Gritty hard working forward</i></li>
<li><i>Good Skater</i></li>
<li><i>Willing to go through the wall</i></li>
<li><i>Works hard up and down the ice</i></li>
<li><i>Teammates love him</i></li>
<li><i>Willingness to block shots</i></li>
<li><i>Great character leader</i></li>
<li><i>Warrior</i></li>
<li><i>Tough and respected</i></li>
</ul>
<div class="pgh-paragraph" id="paragraph3">
<i>The Flyers just used a third-round pick on another <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/players/79442/zac-rinaldo">Zac Rinaldo</a>, basically. Or, perhaps worse, another <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/players/55038/garrett-klotz">Garrett Klotz</a>, who they selected with their third-round pick in 2007. Klotz is now an ECHL regular at age 24. </i></div>
</blockquote>
No one thinks Calgary is a good organization, but I'm a little surprised the Flyers reached so much. <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/28/4407392/the-flyers-sad-history-of-developing-defensemen" target="_blank">Maybe I shouldn't have been</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Cal Clutterbuck for Nino Niederreiter</b><br />
<br />
I like a lot of what Garth Snow has done as GM of the Islanders, finding lots of scrap heap players who can still be useful. That being said, surely there was a GM out there willing to offer more for a 2010 top-five pick than a third liner.<br />
<br />
<b>Edmonton trading down </b><br />
<br />
New GM Craig MacTavish has said a lot of things to make the Oilogosphere optimistic, especially relating to how he wants the team to play. (Puck possession; you'll recall that the Oilogosphere is what popularized Corsi among hockey fans.) Then he annoys them by valuing pick quantity over quality.<b> </b><br />
<br />
<b>Capitals go for mobility</b><br />
<br />
From one of my favorite follows, <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman" target="_blank">scout Corey Pronman</a>:
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
WSH takes Andre Burakowsky. So much upside. Came into the year as potential top 10, slide a little but has top line if not better tools.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351450967197224961">June 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
WSH selects Bowey. Was Canada's <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%231D&src=hash">#1D</a> at the U18s. A lot of talent. Really good skater, puck play and physical projection. Decisions an issue.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351477179877564416">June 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
WSH picks Sanford from the EJHL. Forward with size, speed and skill. Still a guy whose raw and could use his frame better.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351482550000173056">June 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
WSH selects Heinrich. Like his upside. D with quality speed, hands, and vision. Plays tough too.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351504009972023296">July 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
WSH select Pinho. Two way forward. Good skater, works hard, kills penalties. Little to no offensive upside.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351510409481695234">July 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
WSH selects Lewington. Physical defender who can skate. Just ok with the puck.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351519375687299073">July 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
I guess skating isn't an issue for any of the Caps' picks, and for their first two--Andre Burakovsky and Madison Bowey--it's a real strength, and projected to be even at higher levels. Fast guys can always make the NHL as long as they're not super-awful in other parts of the game, and are invaluable for moving pucks up the ice (see: Marcus Johansson, Jason Chimera), which, in turn, is really important for an effective possession (or, rather, zone time) game.<br />
<br />
Frankly, it's always a little underwhelming for me to hear about the projections and current performance for guys outside the top of the draft--these two probably project to second-line wing and second-pair D, although I understand there's enough uncertainty surrounding Burakovsky that he could end up a top-line player--but hopefully these<b> </b>guys put together strong draft+1 and draft+2 years, like Evgeny Kuznetsov (maybe not the best prospect in hockey anymore, but certainly still top-seven or so), Tom Wilson, and, going back earlier, John Carlson. I don't really know how to judge their performance so far.<br />
<br />
I guess, in short, I like the drafting philosophy here, I just have no idea whether I should be more or less excited than normal with these particular picks.<br />
<br />
<b>Anthony Louis sounds familiar</b>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
CHI selects Louis. Really skilled little guy. Great puck skills, good hockey sense. Competes at a level you want in a small forward.<br />
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) <a href="https://twitter.com/coreypronman/statuses/351514679568384001">July 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><b>
Legends of the game </b><br />
<br />
I hadn't noticed in previous years how many were making picks for their teams. This year, I saw Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy making picks for Colorado, Ron Francis for Carolina, Mike Modano for Dallas, and Steve Yzerman for Tampa Bay. I guess a lot of top players like staying around the game, and their franchises put them in the spotlight as much as possible because they're the recognizable faces.<br />
<br />
<b>Dave Bolland and Michal Frolik out of Chicago; Bickell re-signed</b><br />
<br />
Bolland had a tough 2013, but he had been a solid 3C for some time before that, and is definitely an upgrade on Tyler Bozak. (Even bringing more pts/60, despite being on a third line and definitely not playing with Phil Kessel.)<br />
<b> </b><br />
I like Frolik's game a lot. He's become a dependable defensive player since his offense dried up (after back-to-back 40-pt seasons in Florida). I think he was decent value for Chicago, but they do have a deep prospect pool. Winnipeg I think is better off after the trade (sending back a 3rd and a 5th).<br />
<br />
But for a team that needs cap room, and for a team <a href="http://www.capgeek.com/blackhawks/" target="_blank">that has its two most gifted offensive players due for substantial raises in two years</a>, re-signing Bryan Bickell for $4m cap hit a year for four years seems excessive. Bickell is definitely a second-line wing, and <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=BRYANBICKELL" target="_blank">he took his game to top-line level this season</a>, but that's just one (abbreviated) year. He might be worth it, he may not. Either way, the Hawks will continue to need bargain-basement bottom-sixes, and as good as that organization has been at drafting and roster assembling, I'm skeptical they'll be able to pull it off again.<br />
<br />
<b>Lecavalier</b><br />
<br />
I saw that Lecavalier had met with the Capitals, as well as a slew of other teams. That's due diligence by McPhee--Lecavalier is one of the best players available in UFA. That being said, I'm not sure how much better he is than Mike Ribeiro.<br />
<br />
Remember that coming into the 2013 season, <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=MIKERIBEIRO" target="_blank">Ribeiro was an okay ES player</a> who broke even in shots or got slightly outshot. Lecavalier is the same age as Ribeiro, didn't have a great 2013 season, and if his 2011-12 is an anomaly, <a href="http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=1&f1=2007_s+2008_s+2009_s+2010_s+2011_s+2012_s&f2=5v5&c=1+3+5+7+8+10+13+15+17+18+20+23+37+24+38+29+30+32+33+34+63+67&f3=VINCENTLECAVALIER" target="_blank">doesn't look like a great ES player, either</a>.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, since Steven Stamkos emerged in 2009-2010, Lecavalier has become a second-liner, <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=242&withagainst=true&season=2009-13&sit=5v5" target="_blank">playing with many different players...except Tampa's best</a>. Unlike Ribeiro, who got to play with legitimately good wings in Dallas, Lecavalier has had to carry his line. It's possible that with better linemates--playmaking, pass-first wing Erat looks like a natural fit--he'll be a very solid player and make this good team into a very good one. I don't know which line of thinking is more accurate, but it's worth remembering that, like with Ribeiro, his age is a concern and his point totals may overestimate his actual effectiveness.<br />
<br />
That being said, Oates seems to think he'd be a good fit, and the guy (Oates, not Lecavalier) seems like he understands what's going on really well, so I'll just trust him. </div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-28648087672371628662013-06-30T21:36:00.002-04:002013-06-30T21:36:28.075-04:00Play-by-play since 2007<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
If you know or are learning some coding, this might be helpful. It's really annoying to parse through the HTML. Hopefully this helps, and you can be on your way analyzing some nice tab-separated text file spreadsheets instead of those error-filled monsters.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html" target="_blank">Post and some instructions.</a></div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-32894639674574729932013-06-29T11:47:00.000-04:002013-06-29T11:47:04.869-04:00Stuff to watch for<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
With the draft up tomorrow and free agency opening up right after the holiday (Independence Day), here are the stories I'm watching.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>What happens to Kris Letang? The Pens, for the time being, are better off with him. So would any team. In the long run, though, they may be worse for paying him $7m+ a year, especially since he already gets hurt annually, and as he gets older his injury problems could become more prominent.</li>
<li>Who does Colorado trade away? So far, Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy have tried to deny that they'll trade away anyone--the report was that they'd move Ryan O'Reilly to wing to make space for Nathan MacKinnon at center, and I guess that puts Paul Stastny at 3C (remember that Matt Duchene has one center spot locked up). But Stastny only has a year left on his contract, with a cap hit of $6.6m. That's a lot of money for a 3C. But maybe they'll want to keep him and, instead, trade O'Reilly on the one-year anniversary of the offer sheet from Calgary. The other option would be to trade the #1 overall pick:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Starting to hear a little chatter from a few people that first pick may be in play for trade. Buckle up, could be a wild day<br />
— adater (@adater) <a href="https://twitter.com/adater/statuses/350995700915511296">June 29, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</li>
<li>Which player falls at the draft this year? In 2010, it was Cam Fowler, Brandon Gormley, Brandon Saad, and three of the top four Russians, Vladimir Tarasenko, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Kirill Kabanov. In 2011, it was Sean Couturier. Last year, it was Filip Forsberg and Mikhail Grigorenko.</li>
<li>Who makes the big first-round reach? Scott Reynolds has been doing a <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/tag/2013-nhl-draft/scope/community/filter/article">nice production comparables series</a>, but it's not too kind to guys like Bo Horvat and Curtis Lazar (guys with tools but whose offense thus far is underwhelming for potential top-15 picks). </li>
<li>How much do Vincent Lecavalier, Derek Roy, Stephen Weiss, and Mike Ribeiro--the 2Cs in this year's FA class--sign for, and where?</li>
<li>Who wins the first trade between Colorado and Tampa Bay? Sakic vs Yzerman and all that.</li>
<li>Where does Ales Hemsky go? Although very injury-prone, he's a highly skilled right-handed playmaker who, when healthy, can help most teams. GM Craig MacTavish has said he'd like to move Hemsky and defensive center Shawn Horcoff. (In my fantasy, the Caps land him as well as LW Magnus Paajarvi for a package involving Joel Ward and Troy Brouwer, plus Marcus Johansson and maybe a pick. The asking price for Hemsky shouldn't be that high, and Paajarvi is the victim of a number's game--he'll never be a top-three wing on that team, since Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Nail Yakupov exist.)</li>
<li>Does James Reimer move? Otherwise, I don't see why Toronto GM Dave Nonis went out and got Jonathan Bernier from Los Angeles.</li>
<li>What moves do the Flyers make? Annual hilarity.</li>
<li>What do the Capitals do at the draft? In 2008, they traded up to grab Anton Gustafsson (ugh). In 2009, they traded Sami Lepisto for a fifth-round pick. In 2010, they didn't do anything. In 2011, they traded their first-round pick for Troy Brouwer. In 2012, they acquired Mike Ribeiro for a second-round pick and center prospect Cody Eakin. I don't know whether the shorter time limit for draft selections this year--three minutes instead of five--will make GMs agree to trades more quickly, or whether they'll play it safe more often than not and say no.</li>
<li>Does Patrik Elias stay in New Jersey? He's linked to the Devils, like Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne to Anaheim--it's unthinkable that they'd leave. But it seems like that's what it may come to.</li>
<li>Where does Jaromir Jagr go? He can still play.</li>
<li>How much money do RFAs Tuukka Rask, Alex Pietrangelo, Sam Gagner, Sergei Bobrovsky, Ryan McDonagh, and Karl Alzner get?</li>
<li>Where does Roberto Luongo go, and what's the return? (If memory serves, Bob McKenzie said about a week ago that Luongo wouldn't be with Vancouver in ten days.)</li>
<li>Where does Ryan Malone go? Overpaid and oft-injured, but still a half-decent wing.</li>
<li>Who do the Caps sign in UFA? Hint: since they already have a full roster signed (if you add in the RFAs, who are almost certainly going to sign), no one.</li>
</ul>
What are you looking out for? <br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
</ul>
</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-69256789279105967632013-06-26T07:00:00.000-04:002013-06-26T07:00:15.268-04:00Moving up<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="480" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/aPDUS8E8xqQ" width="640"></iframe>
It's a little hard to believe, but it's now been nine years (to the day) since the Capitals drafted <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=&year_max=&season_start=1&season_end=8&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=points&c1comp=gt&c1val=500&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals" target="_blank">Alex Ovechkin</a> first overall in 2004. Among Caps players, Ovechkin only has the second-longest tenure with this organization<span class="st">—Brooks Laich came on board during the 2003-04 season (and Jeff Schultz and Mike Green are only minutes behind Ovechkin at third and fourth, respectively.) While the Capitals haven't had as exciting a player to watch develop as young Ovechkin, they have had some real difference makers race through the pipeline: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Mike Green, John Carlson, and, most recently, Braden Holtby and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Filip Forsberg might have become another, but for the time being there's no one else on the radar.</span><br />
<span class="st"><br /></span>
<span class="st">I felt that during this season, the Caps sort of came to a crossroads. Early in the year, when the team was near the bottom of the standings, I thought the team should sell and reload for next season. It could have traded Mike Ribeiro for a first-round pick and more, maybe acquired and re-signed Stephen Weiss</span><span class="st">—who, luckily, wouldn't be able to contribute until next season, thanks to injury</span><span class="st">—kept Filip Forsberg, used the season as practice time for Oates to develop his players further (e.g. playing Backstrom and Ovechkin power versus power), and, finally, drafted Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, Seth Jones, or Aleksander Barkov (all four of whom should be able to step into the NHL within a year and have all-star potential) with their own first-round pick.</span><br />
<span class="st"><br /></span>
<span class="st">Instead, they decided to gun for the playoffs, and thanks to a hot run at the end of the year, made it, falling in the first round to the New York Rangers. They traded Forsberg for Martin Erat</span><span class="st">—a trade I don't mind for a team that's looking to bolster an already formidable lineup. (Erat is a top-line, two-way player. Forsberg's upside, from what I've read, is similar in terms of impact, but Forsberg is a little more of a scorer. As it is, he won't reach his potential for at least six years, if at all.) They also kept Ribeiro on board, even though the playoffs were still a longshot at the deadline and the Erat trade meant it would be tough to find cap room to keep Ribeiro. They wanted results this year, and that's okay.</span><br />
<span class="st"><br /></span>
<span class="st">But it's tough to trade for top-end talent you need year after year. (Brouwer, Ribeiro, Erat.) If you want impact players without giving up important roster players, you have to trade from a limited draft pick pool and, for the Caps, a thin prospect pool.</span><span class="st"> Moreover, these players are getting added to a team that could be getting worse and worse. </span><br />
<br />
<span class="st">Recall that in 2009-10, George McPhee added Joe Corvo, Scott Walker, and Eric Belanger to a team that was already headed for a comfortable President's Trophy win. </span><br />
<br />
<span class="st">In 2010-11, he added Jason Arnott and Marco Sturm for a team that had not yet wrapped up the division, but probably would have taken it along with a top-two seed in the conference. </span><br />
<br />
<span class="st">Now, you're adding players to a team that some people will no doubt predict to miss the playoffs next season. (The question is: how much do you trust the larger sample of games over which the Capitals' Corsi was brutal, and how much do you trust the smaller sample later in the year over which the Capitals' Corsi was almost playoff-level? If the former, you predict them to miss the postseason, probably.)</span><br />
<span class="st"><br /></span>
<span class="st">At some point, this team will need to boost its "baseline talent level"</span><span class="st">—how good it is before trade deadline additions come in</span>. You do that with young players, since they're the ones most likely to improve a lot while with the team. Marcus Johansson, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner are halfway or more to developing into the players they'll be at their best, I think, so we can't look for huge improvement there. Dmitri Orlov will still improve a lot, probably, but into a reliable second-pair D at best. While Braden Holtby is still pretty young, he already looks like an above-average starter, and it's hard to expect him to improve much more, if at all. Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson could provide that improvement, but Wilson probably won't be a dynamic offensive presence (which every scoring line needs) and there's still uncertainty about Kuznetsov's future plans (<a href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2013/05/06/evgeny-kuznetsov-re-emphasizes-he-will-play-for-capitals-in-2014-15/" target="_blank">although he said he's coming to the NHL after next season</a>). With Filip Forsberg now with Nashville, the team has to bank on a permanent return to ES dominance from Ovechkin and Backstrom, or for Kuznetsov to pan out in a big way (<a href="http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1367" target="_blank">i.e. "perennial All-Star"</a>).<br />
<span class="st"></span><br />
Even if Kuznetsov does pan out, though, without the addition of another top prospect, the team will really be looking at him and Wilson to offset other players' declines (which will be especially difficult if Ovechkin and Backstrom don't age as well as, say, Datsyuk and Zetterberg). That's a lot to ask for.<br />
<br />
Assuming a lot of things, here's what the lineup might look like in April 2018, along with ages:<br />
<br />
Kuznetsov (25) - Backstrom (30) - Ovechkin (32)<br />
Laich (35) - Johansson (27) - Wilson (24)<br />
TBA - Perreault (30) - Galiev (26)<br />
TBA - TBA - Brouwer (32)<br />
<br />
Alzner (29) - Green (32)<br />
Orlov (26) - Carlson (28)<br />
TBA - Kundratek (28)<br />
<br />
Holtby (28)<br />
<br />
And if the team continues to trade young (picks/prospects) for old, this lineup will be even older. And there will still be three full seasons left on Ovechkin's contract. This may be a formula to be a pretty good team for some time, but I don't see a way to hit that next level without some pretty good prospects, which the team has had some success drafting late in the first round...but hit a dry spell and there will be some serious issues. (Remember Tampa Bay when they had to trade Brad Richards and Dan Boyle?)<br />
<br />
All of this is basically saying that the team isn't on a dramatic rise,
nor does it have the assets or prospects to go on a quick rise at the
moment. The solution is to get a good young player with high upside, and the almost surefire way to get that guy is by picking near the top of the draft. A player picked in this year's draft will be 22 or 23 in April 2018, still improving but likely already one of the best players on the team.<br />
<br />
It might cost too much to move into the top four in this year's draft, but the 5-7 range (Carolina, Calgary, Edmonton) might be more realistic<span class="st">—</span>Carolina and Edmonton are both teams that need to improve sooner rather than later, and both need D, which the Capitals have an excess of. If the #5 team is lucky, one of MacKinnon/Drouin/Jones/Barkov drops; if not, there's still Nichushkin, <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/6/4403262/sean-monahan-draft-comparables" target="_blank">Monahan</a>, and Lindholm, all of whom project as second liners at the lower end, with top-line upside. If you wait until next year's draft, the guy will be 21 in 2018, still taking huge strides every year and ready to be The Guy once Ovechkin's contract is up.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/6/9/1508196/who-is-the-best-player-available" target="_blank">The 4-7 spot in the draft is far from a sure bet</a> as far as forwards are concerned, but if management believes the top of this draft is strong<span class="st">—</span>and it seems like everyone who has something to say only praises it at the top, so I have trouble believing that McPhee disagrees<span class="st">—</span>then you're looking at the 4-7 guys in this draft being 2-3 guys in other drafts: near-locks.<br />
<br />
The next question is how much it would cost to trade up. According to <a href="http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up" target="_blank">this study by Broad Street Hockey</a>, it looks like the Caps have half of what they need already with their own first-round pick (23rd overall). Add the second-rounder (46th) and you're three-fourths of the way there. Substitute Orlov or Johansson for that second-rounder and maybe you've got enough to hook Edmonton or Carolina. You might be able to grab Elias Lindholm<span class="st">—</span><a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/6/4401998/elias-lindholm-draft-comparables">a guy who compares favorably to Nicklas Backstrom on the scoresheet</a><span class="st">—</span>or Valeri Nichushkin, <a href="http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/6/5/4397856/valeri-nichushkin-comparables" target="_blank">whose production hasn't come along but boasts a variety of high-end tools, including great skating</a>.<br />
<br />
Yes, five years is a long time from now, and I don't think a drastic cupboard-restocking is something that <i>needs</i> to happen this year. But while we can infer management's short-term plans (Backstrom-Ovechkin-Erat, depth on D) and medium-term plans (hope Ovechkin and Backstrom stay good, Kuznetsov and Wilson), I don't see a long-term plan in place. (A team like the Flyers has done alright while thinking short-term and figuring things out on the fly, but I think everyone saw their recent troubles coming.) It can't be "Ovechkin-Backstrom age really well or bust." You have to really buckle down and make a draft pick on the level of Kuznetsov, Claude Giroux, or Mike Green, a star with one of your picks in the 20s that can give you that strong push to the next level, or you can trade up, spend the equivalent of an early 20s draft pick in addition to that original 20s pick in order to be sure your pick will be good. (<a href="http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2013/06/25/why-the-caps-should-trade-their-first-round-pick/" target="_blank">You could also go for quantity of picks over quality</a>, but I think this team needs high-level talent sooner rather than later, and the higher picks will be more impactful individually while coming along a year or two sooner.) It's probably against the odds that this team wins a Cup with Ovechkin at this point<span class="st">—</span>time is getting a little short. With a smart trade<span class="st">—dealing someone who can be adequately replaced in UFA</span><span class="st">—that lands a</span> good pick, you could bolster your chances of winning a title every season for the remainder of Ovechkin's contract and beyond.<br />
<br />
Just something to think about.</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-70721406479810476852013-06-25T01:52:00.002-04:002013-06-25T01:52:28.834-04:00SCF pick review<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://redlinestation.blogspot.com/2013/06/stanley-cup-finals-pick.html" target="_blank">Here's what I wrote earlier</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>I do like Chicago in this, though--too much depth.</i>
<i><br />
It may sound like a double standard considering that I liked Boston to
shut down Pittsburgh, but I don't think Pittsburgh had as much depth as
people thought--those third and fourth lines won't provide much--while
Chicago can throw out guys like speedy Stalberg and future top-six
center Kruger in the bottom-six. Chicago also can throw out many
different combinations up front, which may prove helpful--if Toews-Kane
isn't working, Toews-Hossa might, etc.</i>
<i><br />
I also like the Hawks' blueline better than Pittsburgh's, or Boston's
for that matter--I feel like they're better equipped to hold their own,
since most of those guys have value at both ends of the ice (whereas
aside from Krug, Chara, and Hamilton, Boston's D is mostly valuable only
on the defensive end).</i>
<i><br />
In goal, Crawford has played well. Rask has been much better, but I
think he'll come back to Earth somewhat. As it is, Chicago eventually
did solve Jimmy Howard, and broke Jonathan Quick. How much harder could
it be to solve Rask? </i>
<i><br /></i>
<i>Blackhawks in 6.</i></blockquote>
The Blackhawks got off to a bit of a slow start in this series, but <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/06/19/systems-analyst-how-the-chicago-blackhawks-can-cut-through-the-boston-bruins-layers/" target="_blank">they found their groove</a> after Hossa got back into the lineup and Kane and Toews were reunited. I guess I sorta got the depth part wrong--Boston's depth did plenty of scoring, while in these last two Hawks wins it's been the top players, mainly (with a cameo from Bolland on the series winner). But they still played well. Corey Crawford held the Hawks in it through the rough times (losing Toews in Game 5, first period of Game 6) and IMO should have won the Conn Smythe, but I guess that's all in the past now.<br />
<br />
Final record: 12-3 (Missed on both Senators series and on Kings-Blackhawks; nailed two series: this one and Kings-Blues in the first round)</div>
Red Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.com0