Ten Years

I was only in third grade. What had happened was alluded to over morning announcements. I think the teachers understood. My teacher told us what happened, but didn't tell us about the number of fatalities, or that the third plane, headed for the Pentagon, may have even flown over us that morning. People started getting taken out of school one-by-one, but I think eventually the principal ordered that no one else leave (a lockdown, effectively). When I went home only then did I learn that thousands had passed away, New York City was a giant cloud of dust, and that there was a fuselage sticking out of the Pentagon.

I don't think that getting rid of Al-Qaeda or whomever is going to fix this problem. It seems to me like the the real issue is that the West (or rather, the more developed world) has taken the "invader" or "imperialist" stance several times towards the Middle East, which some smooth talkers like Osama bin Laden can misconstrue into an attack on Islam or whatever. You have Lawrence of Arabia, the English and French post-World War II, the creation of the state of Israel (and its inevitable backing by the West, even in light of frequent questionable actions), the Gulf War, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and so on. It doesn't help that some of Western culture (clothing and sexuality are the two most obvious examples) goes against Islamic teachings.

A friend of my father's phrased their motivation nicely: "greed for good deeds." In Islam, the ultimate good deed is dying while fighting for Islam--martyrdom. Martyrs are guaranteed heaven. Thing is, there isn't always a martyr-inviting situation ready. So the terrorists fabricated one. In Islam, it is forbidden to kill innocents, and killing a Muslim is explicitly referred to as comparable to having "killed all of humankind." Obviously, they feel like their supposed martyrdom carries more weight than the heavy sins of murder (or maybe they don't even understand what the Qur'an says, Greg Mortensen suggests). If that is what the Qur'an truly means, that's fine. But I have a hard time thinking that this was any sort of "holy war" at all. There is no physical war on Islam, and there hasn't been since the caliphate. Thanks to my basic education in a Western school, I know that. I guess the mountain-billies hiding in caves who've been planning these attacks don't know that.

Killing them is only going to encourage more young boys and girls to join their cause, as they see friends and family die, of whom many are innocent bystanders in the wrong place at the wrong time. Hopefully, given time, the presently-dysfunctional governments all over the Middle East can get these lawless areas under some more control and educate their people.

May God protect us from those loons.

(If you think this is a hateful or bigoted piece, send me an email and I'll explain to you why it most certainly is not)

A Thought on Competition Metrics

There are three available from behindthenet.ca: QualComp, Corsi QoC, and Corsi Rel QoC. All are calculated in the exact same way (the average of opponents' ratings, weighted by ice time), save for the base statistic. With QualComp, that basic statistic is relative plus minus (on-ice plus-minus per 60 less off-ice plus-minus per 60). With Corsi QoC, it's Corsi On (on-ice Corsi per 60). With Corsi Rel QoC, it's relative Corsi (on-ice Corsi per 60 less off-ice Corsi per 60).

I get the feeling that if you want to see who faced top scorers, you use QualComp. QualComp puts "rating" (relative plus-minus) into context, but not so much Corsi. If you want to see who faced the tougher competition, use Corsi QoC. If you want to see who the coach intended to take the toughest competition, use Corsi Rel QoC. The last two match up most of the time, but due to opponents faced differences, not always.

All comparing intra-team, obviously. Inter-team is a whole 'nuther ballgame.

Scouting the Enemy: Atlantic Division

Sorry for any funky format. I'm trying posting via email.

Either the Atlantic or the underrated Central will be the best division next
> season.
>
> In reverse predicted order of finish:
>
> New York Islanders
> Notable additions: Brian Rolston via trade
> Notable losses: Trent Hunter via trade
> Outlook: borderline playoff team
>
> The Islanders are a young team on the rise. They have had bad luck with
> injuries year after year, but look to be in good shape for next season. Mark
> Streit may not be the Norris caliber defenseman he was two years ago, but
> he's a legit 1D. Macdonald and Hamonic make a strong second pair, and
> combined with the Nielsen-Grabner-Okposo line they can outscore any top line
> in the league. Tavares also has an outside shot at 40 goals.
>
> Season series gameplan: Work hard. The Islanders always play the Caps well
> because they work hard, like the Caps under Hanlon. But there is still a big
> gulf in terms of talent.
>
> Playoff series gameplan: same. And push the pace against their inexperienced
> blueline.
>
> New Jersey Devils
> Notable additions: none
> Notable losses: none
> Outlook: playoff team
>
> The Devils had a crazy last season. I think they are closer to the Lemaire
> team than the Maclean team, though. They were a 51% Fenwick team under
> Maclean and about 55% under Lemaire, but of course had much better puck luck
> the second half of the season. We cannot expect Brodeur to play below
> replacement level for forty games again, and along with the return of Zach
> Parise I see this team as a low playoff team.
>
> Season series gameplan: push the pace and attack. The Devils have a young
> blueline that, aside from Volchenkov, Tallinder, and Greene, is very
> unproven.
>
> Playoff series gameplan: same. I would also slot Brouwer on the top line to
> hit Volchenkov, who is not especially durable.
>
> Philadelphia Flyers
> Notable additions: Jakub Voracek via trade, Brayden Schenn via trade, Wayne
> Simmonds via trade, Jaromir Jagr, Ilya Bryzgalov
> Notable losses: Jeff Carter via trade, Mike Richards via trade, Brian
> Boucher
> Outlook: playoff team
>
> Much has already been written about the Flyers' offseason makeover. I'd just
> like to add that now at least one of Schenn, Briere, or Voracek will need to
> play toughs. The first may be too inexperienced, the latter two not ideal.
> Giroux is still good enough to stabilize the forward corps, but not enough
> to make them elite, I think: he did have Carter on his wing, after all.
>
> Season series gameplan: attention to line matching. Philadelphia probably
> doesn't have the forward depth to handle two strong scoring lines.
>
> Playoff series gameplan: that plus playing very physically on Pronger and
> Timonen to wear them down.
>
> New York Rangers
> Notable additions: Brad Richards, Tim Erixon via trade
> Notable losses: none
> Outlook: playoff team
>
> The Rangers were already decent. They've added the best UFA and one of the
> two best defensemen in the world not already in the NHL (along with fellow
> Swede David Rundbland), and coupled with growth from Artem Anisimov, Mike
> Sauer, and Ryan McDonagh, the Rangers should win plenty of games and
> challenge for home ice.
>
> Season series gameplan: offense versus offense. Richards and Gaborik should
> be the most vulnerable line defensively. Furthermore, given how sound the
> Rangers defensemen are in their zone--I'd take their top five defensemen
> over all save Philly's for pure defense--I think the Capitals defensemen
> need to be aggressive in joining the rush. With Green, Wideman, Carlson, and
> Hamrlik all better puck movers than any Ranger D, therein lies the Caps'
> biggest personnel edge. Offense from defense.
>
> Playoff series gameplan: same.
>
> Pittsburgh Penguins
> Notable additions: none
> Notable losses: none
> Outlook: Cup Contender
>
> There are still question marks surrounding this team. How will Malkin fare
> coming off a serious knee injury, one which typically sets a player at
> reduced effectiveness for a year or two? When will Crosby come back, and
> will he feel like Eric Lindros, who said that after the Stevens hit he
> actually had to think about what he was doing with the puck? Will Fleury
> build off his strong last season, or will he regress to his prior, league
> average self? Will James Neal figure it all out?
>
> Nonetheless, this is the best possession team since Bylsma took over, and I
> expect that strong play to lead them to a division title. Only their strong
> division prevents me from penciling them in as the East top seed.
>
> Season series gameplan: slow the game down. Prevent the Penguins from
> getting their forecheck going.
>
> Playoff series gameplan: any strategy I can think of is a mixed bag. Just
> win. If I had to choose I'd like to see the Capitals open it up, move the
> puck up the ice quickly, and exert a physical toll on the Pens top four,
> upon which Bylsma will rely upon heavily. I don't necessarily want run and
> gun, but this Capitals team thrives off the rush--did they even score five
> goals in the playoffs off an in-zone possession?--and playing a neutral zone
> game neutralizes the Caps transition game and puck moving blueline
> advantage.

The 11-12 Caps, like the 11-12 Flyers

The shower is really a great place to come up with ideas for posts.

Semin: Best a Stopper?

Even if playing Semin in a defensive role sacrifices his even strength offense, he's one of the best two-way players on the team. Reduced offense should, furthermore, lower his cost, which could mean he could stay with the team past 2011-2012 for much less than the $6.7 million hit he'll put on the cap. Moreover, style aside for a moment, using Sergei Fedorov and Nicklas Backstrom as the statistical examples of Semin's ideal linemates, Laich better matches Fedorov's ability to "tilt the ice" (good relative Corsi with not-so-easy minutes) and put up points at 5v5 (a little under 2 pts/60) than Marcus Johansson, who would presumably center Semin if not Laich.

This all made me think of whether Semin is best suited to be a "heavy lifter." Playing him for offense may lead to some issues. For one, playing him on the 2nd line means the team has two lines for offense without enough offensive ice time to go around (one of the two will have to take mediocre or poor zone starts, one of the two will have to take moderately difficult ice time thanks to time-on-ice distribution patterns--opposing poorer, lower-TOI players won't be out there enough for both Ovechkin and Semin's lines) to use their abilities to the fullest. With Laich the next best forward on the team, then, it makes sense to play Laich and Semin together. Since Laich (and any other option to play with Semin) lacks that high offensive production ability, and since Semin's game translates better between offense and defense than for other Caps forwards (except for Backstrom, I'd say), why not play them in a role that forces them to play both offense and defense? And if your third forward is probably going to bring much more defense than offense, why not skew their usage to favor defense? It will also free up the top line to get ice time more like the Sedin twins than like Ryan Kesler.

I'm not sure I'd do it, but that sort of split would definitely be on my radar if I were coaching the team. Then again, if I knew anything about the game I'd be in it.

Goal Scorers Are Not Created Equal

Goal scorers are not all the same. Many fans I've come across don't realize this (what I see as obvious) fact.

Wednesday Ramblings

Just a few musings as I do my best Elliotte Friedman-impression:

1. I've seen people want Ovechkin down low on the power play. After thinking about it, I think that would require the Caps to change their power play scheme. Ovechkin isn't a great passer--while his accuracy is nice, his passes tend to be too hard, and he doesn't do a good job "looking off" the defensemen--and putting him to the goalie's right, on the goal line, takes away the backdoor play to the pinching D Green, Wideman, or Carlson. In 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, Viktor Kozlov was the great passer there, and the Caps ran that backdoor to Green all day. Since he left, the Caps haven't been able to run that play. Is that because they lack that passer there, or because teams wisened up? Is it because the Caps' PP runs more and more frequently through Backstrom, on the opposite side?

I don't really mind the current scheme. Have Green, Carlson, or Wideman as the single D on PP1, with Ovechkin and Backstrom creating the top of the umbrella, Semin down low on Ovechkin's side, and Laich/Knuble/Fehr in front of the net. I just want Ovechkin to participate a little more in board play and puck retrieval, since he's difficult to knock off the puck. On PP2, use the other two righty-D to replace Ovechkin and Green, Johansson instead of Backstrom, and the other two net-crashers.

If Ovechkin is down low, then there's a slower, less powerful skater playing D (if it's a forward, like Arnott). I'm not sure I like that. Of course, AO could be replaced by a defenseman, but then Semin or the net-presence gets kicked off PP1. I'd rather keep things mostly the way they are. The Caps' PP generates plenty of shots and chances. Even if they haven't been going in, going forward, that's the way to play (quantity over quality).

2. The Chicago-Vancouver series was very, very fast. The Caps-Rangers series was pretty slow. I wonder how the Caps will hold up against a faster team.

I commented the other day on how Detroit's possession game differed from Chicago's and Vancouver's. Chicago, Vancouver, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh play a much more up-tempo, aggressive forecheck game with the score tied, and are not afraid to just throw the puck at the net from anywhere in the offensive zone. Detroit is slower and much more methodical, preferring to keep the puck in lieu of trying a low percentage play. Detroit executes to perfection, and Chicago last year executed to perfection.

Given that the Caps have players like Jeff Schultz, Jason Arnott, Mike Knuble, and John Erskine, who aren't exactly fleet-of-foot, I'm not sure if the Caps can play that up-tempo game anymore. Moreover, in my opinion, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, Eric Fehr, and Scott Hannan aren't fast enough to play like Chicago or Vancouver. If they try to play at that way, I think they'll get burned pretty badly.

The Capitals will need to make responsible decisions with the puck and play more like Detroit. Puck possession is simultaneously the best offense and the best defense. Barry Svrluga writing about Jason Arnott (definitely a must-read):

In his very first game with the Capitals, at home against the lowly New York Islanders, Arnott was surprised at what he saw from such a talented group. Irresponsible decision-making, a lack of attention to detail — the failures of teams that can’t win in the playoffs. So in between the second and third periods, with the Capitals down 1-0, Arnott surprised even himself by speaking up.
“I just thought, ‘We’re not going anywhere playing like this,’ ” he said. “I thought: ‘You know what? I got to say something.’ I figured hell, I’ll throw it out there and see how they respond.”
Such a brash response from someone who had played just 40 minutes with his new club?
“Veteran guys, they know where they stand,” Capitals forward Eric Fehr said. “He knows that what he has to say is more valuable than a lot of other players.”
“He’s said some pretty key things here that have helped with a lot of things,” forward Jason Chimera said. “It means the world.”

The Capitals will have to pay very good attention to detail in order to beat a more aggressive team. This time around, they're not the deepest team up front, but they still have plenty of skill. That skill will need to slow the game down to counteract any speed from the other team. Then the Caps' size--for the last four years, they've been the biggest team in the league in terms of height--can take over on offense.

Speed from the other team is also the only way to bruise the Caps' D. If the puck gets in deep, but the opposing forwards don't get to the puck quickly, the Caps' D--not all of the puck movers, but all good enough to make that first pass, once Wideman gets back--will simply play the puck out.

If Tom Poti gets healthy and up to game speed, he could help here and supplant Jeff Schultz, if Schultz isn't playing well. Six good skaters who can make that first pass makes it tough to generate any sort of forecheck. It's how Vancouver, Detroit, and Chicago operate.

3. Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin need to play at the same speed. Right now, in terms of speed, Backstrom is better suited to center Arnott and Semin, with Johansson and Chimera best suited to play up-tempo with Ovechkin. Either Ovi needs to slow down, or Backstrom needs to speed up (in my opinion, the latter).

4. Both Chicago and Vancouver had the 3rd forward collapse into the strong-side slot in the defensive zone. If their team got the puck, the forward is well positioned to be an outlet pass recipient; if the puck goes back to the point, the player can chase; if the puck stays down low, the player is covering the weak-side D pinch. The Capitals I think could do a bit more of that and be more aggressive in puck pursuit in the defensive zone. Instead of letting the other team pass it around to the outside (i.e. "protect net" in EA terms, which isn't bad, mind you, except for possibly sacrificing some time that could be spent in the offensive zone), control where they can pass it as well by using that 5th player effectively (i.e. "contain puck").

5. The Capitals aren't that much better than any team remaining in the East, or West (if they are better at all). The Caps forwards need to employ the same strategy as they did against New York--dump the puck in and be physical with the opposing defensemen to wear them down. The longer the series, the more it favors Washington's superior defensive depth and young offensive core, I think.

6. One thing to look out for is how Marcus Johansson plays without Brooks Laich on his line. Laich was the only solid possession forward on that line (save for Eric Fehr when he's at his best), and so that line is the one, if any, opponents will be looking to exploit. Johansson and Chimera need to play a pure speed game to move the puck up the ice.

7. I don't really care who the Caps play. The Caps should beat any of Montreal, Pittsburgh, or Tampa Bay. I think a series with Pittsburgh is likeliest to end in a win, but will also be the most physically taxing and longest (I'm thinking plenty of overtimes). Montreal is small and not all that deep, but the best of the three as it stands (i.e. no Crosby) and has the best goalie. Tampa is feast-or-famine, and as long as their power play and goaltending don't both get hot, the Caps should be fine.

I'm afraid of teams that have won all year in spite of goaltending, but Roloson by now must be wearing down. I'm afraid of legitimately good teams, but Pittsburgh has anemic special teams and spends lots of time at 5on4 and 4on5 (draw and take lots of penalties) and Montreal is beat up after their series against Boston. I think it's push. I'm predicting Caps in 6 no matter the opponent...I just want the next round to start.

That being said, not to tempt fate by looking ahead, but it would be nice to have a non-bruising series with Montreal and face the winner of a tough, nasty Pittsburgh-Philadelphia series, wouldn't it?

8. San Jose-Detroit should be all sorts of fun. Neither team is especially physical, and both prefer that slightly more conservative possession style. I also expect Vancouver to have all sorts of trouble with Nashville. I'm not sold on the psychological makeup of that Canucks team. The bottom of their lineup will have to battle a'plenty and best the deep Nashville forward group, and Suter-Weber should stop the Sedins (again). If Rinne plays like he did during the latter half of the regular season, this is an upset, or at least another seven game series, before Vancouver faces what I think is kryptonite to their style--methodical, responsible puck possession by mobile defensemen and speedy, skilled forwards.

The Lucky Underdog

As humans, we like to attach narrative to everything, especially sports. Sometimes, those narratives don't exist.

Teams like the 2010-2011 New York Rangers, the 2010-2011 Anaheim Ducks, the 2009-2010 Colorado Avalanche, and even the 2009-2010 Washington Capitals, we like to say are or were pretty good, despite getting dominated territorially (or, at least, significantly underperforming their goal differential with respect to Corsi). When you get lucky defensively over and over, that gives this feeling of invincibility.

I felt it watching Game 1 last night. Even though I firmly believe Semyon Varlamov is better than Michal Neuvirth, I feel like had Varlamov played, the Capitals would have inevitably lost, thanks to some crazy carom. Varlamov has had plenty of bad luck all season, especially with regards to the goal support he gets (compared to Neuvirth).

From a Rangers fan perspective, I might feel like my team played pretty well, despite getting out-Fenwick'd and outchanced by a significant margin and stifled on the whole. My team weathered the initial Capitals storm during the first period, and afterwards settled in. They weathered the storm, just like with any other game. If your team is pretty good, though, they shouldn't have to weather storms so frequently. Right? Unfortunately, this reasoning doesn't fit the narrative of the hard-working disciplined team overcoming adversity to win. And if the hard-working team didn't lose, well, they'll get 'em next time. Supposedly.

If your team is pretty good (2007-2009 Washington Capitals), then putting the other team through such "storms" is the norm, not the exception. So when the passing clinic breaks down for a while, the team looks terrible. Selective memory, unfortunately, remembers the breakdowns, not the constant successful aggressive play the majority of the time, to fit the narrative of the unclutch, undisciplined, "soft" skill team.

Obviously, people with a better eye for the game (or people who watch with a "chances-eye") will be better prepared to see past the ebbs and flows of the game and recognize what truly happened. But that doesn't describe most people.

So as the playoffs keep going, make sure you're watching hockey with a "chances-eye." Recognize that the team that got the better of the play was almost certainly the better team. The Capitals were the better team in Game 1, no doubt about it. But the Rangers gave the Capitals some trouble, especially when they went up after Gilroy's goal in the third. The Capitals need to work on their defensive zone rotation when the opponent works the puck below the goal lines--I saw three Caps chasing two forwards, meaning the weak-side pinching defenseman, like Gilroy, will be left open--but on the whole, the Caps were better.

To quote Japers' Rink: "Win one game. Do it sixteen fifteen times."

Varlavirth Should be Starting the Playoffs

...not Braden Holtby.

If you've been in the comments section on Japers' Rink, you've seen me say this in bits and pieces, but I want to reiterate again.

No Need For a Veteran in Net

Why do people say teams need veteran presence in the playoffs, especially in net?

1. Fans see some inexperienced goalies falter, mistakes that are magnified in the small sample that is a playoff series, leading to confirmation bias of the cliche that you need veterans.
2. Goalies collapse under playoff pressure.

To the first, I say this: whether or not a goalie is on a hot or cold streak, his expected level of performance in his next game is his true talent level, adjusted for shot and shooter quality. That is, pretty much his save percentage over about the last thousand shots or so (unless the goalie has really improved, like Ward and Fleury this season).

Regardless, some goalies do go on hot streaks. Inexperienced goalies don't have enough of a sample of shots faced to tell us their true talent level, so whenever a coach finds one (Reimer, for example, or Varlamov 2009), he runs with him. The dude usually ends up being nothing special. The playoff letdown, then, is nothing other than an end to the hot streak. And keep in mind that goalie hot streaks can extend over an entire season.

To the second, every player nowadays is plenty experienced--peewee championships in all likelihood, and for most notables, world junior championships too. The WJC < Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that international stage is pretty huge nonetheless. It's a very rare guy that collapses or excels (more than normal) under pressure, and for goalies, at least, it's not like we can tell the difference.

Have confidence in Varlavirthby. They're one of three reasons I can still be hopeful for these playoffs.

Winning the Division: High Risk, High Reward

Contenders for top seed: Philadelphia, Boston
Contenders for 3-6: Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Montreal
Contenders for 7-8: New York Rangers, Buffalo, Carolina, Toronto, Atlanta, New Jersey*

*I included New Jersey since the Devils are legitimately much better than any team currently lower than 6th in the East, even though they're a-ways out from the 8th spot, and the Thrashers since they're still in front of the Devils.

So I think the standings may look like this:
1. Philadelphia/Boston
2. Boston/Philadelphia
3. Washington
4. Tampa Bay/Pittsburgh
5. Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay
6. Montreal
7. New York Rangers
8. Buffalo

That terrifies me.

A Trade Deadline Wish List

Here's a quick list of players I'd like from teams I think could be selling. I tried to keep these targets realistic, and limited my look to two players a team, maximum.

My targets are pretty much all tough minutes or tough-minutes-capable players. All salary information according to Capgeek.

Anaheim: No one.

Dallas: C Tom Wandell and D Nicklas Grossman. Both are pretty young. Grossman,26, should slot nicely as Green's partner and is signed for next year at $1.625 million (UFA). Wandell, 24, is dirt-cheap and signed for next year at $775k (RFA). Sweet.

Los Angeles: LW Alexei Ponikarovsky. He's a UFA at the end of this year, cap hit $3.2 million. He plays tough minutes with bad teammates, unimpressive zonestart, and comes out ahead, with a +1 in penalty differential per 60 to boot. Personally, I'd try to ship Los Angeles Semin and get back Poni and a good pick or prospect (maybe one of their D prospects like Teubert or Voynov). I see the potential here for opposing GM Dean Lombardi to overrate Semin and vastly underrate Ponikarovsky.

Phoenix: LW Lee Stempniak and C Vernon Fiddler catch my eye, and I'd love C Martin Hanzal the most from anyone on this roster, easily. I'm not liking 'em enough (or willing to pay the price, in Hanzal's case) to try and go after them, if I'm GMGM.

San Jose: Pass. C Joe Pavelski, D Dan Boyle, C/W Logan Couture, C Joe Thornton, and C/W Patrick Marleau aren't realistic.

Edmonton: D Ladislav Smid and RW Ales Hemsky. I've written about Hemsky before, and you can read more about Smid here. Smid is an RFA at the end of this season.

Calgary: RW Curtis Glencross. He's a UFA after this season, cap hit $1.2 million, and doesn't get murdered by kind-of-hard minutes with below-average teammates. If the Capitals can re-sign him, he'll be able to play in the top-6 for sure, and given power play time could hit 50 points. And he's only 28.

Vancouver: RW Jannik Hansen. He's RFA after this season, only 24 years old, cap hit $815k. He plays the toughs in Vancouver along with Manny Malhotra and Raffi Torres. His zone start isn't as drastically low as those two's, but neither is his relative Corsi. He looks like he could post 40 points in more favorable conditions, or at least in the 20s to 30s playing toughs. That being said, I doubt Vancouver is selling.

Colorado: C Paul Stastny or C Jay McClement. Both players can play the toughs and come out ahead. McClement is an elite defensive forward, making a little under $1.5 million for this season and next. Stastny is a nearly-point-per-game 1C making $6.6 million for this season and the three seasons thereafter. Stastny could take a king's ransom, but I'd pay it (anyone outside of Carlzner, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Varlavirth, and Kuznetsov). McClement I feel could be had for a steal (if he's available), and there's little doubt he'll be great value on his contract next season.

Minnesota: D Greg Zanon or RW Cal Clutterbuck. Both play moderately hard minutes with below average teammates and ~35% zone starts. Clutterbuck comes out ahead, draws more penalties than he takes, and, more qualitatively, plays with a lot of energy (think "good" Mathieu Perreault), generating plenty of hits despite his size. Zanon is 30 and has a $1.933 million cap hit next season, while Clutterbuck is 23 and carries a $1.4 million cap hit for the two seasons in addition to this one.

Detroit: No one is both attractive and realistic, if you ask me.

Chicago: I'd only ask about Bryan Bickell and Viktor Stalberg, but they both are getting laced with hard zonestarts and tough competition. It's tough to judge how good they are, so I'll pass.

St. Louis: Ehh, maybe Roman Polak, who's RFA after this season and one of their heavy lifters. Because of health issues, though, let's pass on St. Louis.

Nashville: Everyone with desirable contract length (that is, not UFA after this year) is either untouchable or overpaid, pretty much. Pass.

Columbus: This is fugly. All the good players have terrible Corsis or face really easy competition, so I have no idea how to judge their players. Pass.

Boston: I don't think they're selling.

Montreal: I like some of their D, but they're thin already. Pass.

Buffalo: LW Jochen Hecht. Follow the McClement link above--the 33-year-old Hecht is one of the names there, too. He'll carry a $3.525 million cap hit next season, after which he's UFA. He should be able to score 40 points or more playing 2nd-toughs if not 1st-toughs outright, given PP time of course. And maybe Buffalo wants Mathieu Perreault as someone who can see eye-to-eye with Tyler Ennis. Oh, and Philipp Grubauer needs a German buddy.

Toronto: Clarke MacArthur, Nikolai Kulemin, and Mikhail Grabovski are attractive but will no doubt be overpriced, and I like C Tim Brent too but there's little need right now for another Boyd Gordon, especially as a rental.

Ottawa: D Chris Phillips. He's on the decline but is still a legitimate shut-down defenseman. I really want Phillips more for the chance to sign him to his next contract (he'll be UFA in July), so he can bridge the team to, say, Orlov, so I wouldn't give up much. GM Brian Murray would probably want plenty, though.

Philadelphia: I wanted RW Nik Zherdev for free (he was on waivers), but too late for that. Pass.

Pittsburgh: Just stay away from Shero GMGM, stay away...

New Jersey: C Travis Zajac and D Henrik Tallinder probably aren't available, but both are pretty strong players, beating tough minutes (though Tallinder is 32 and is declining).

New York Rangers: I love me some Ryan Callahan, Marc Staal, Brandon Dubinsky, but who am I kidding? They did trade for C/W Wojtek Wolski though. He's likely off the table for that reason but would have been a nice pick-up.

New York Islanders: C Frans Nielsen or C Josh Bailey. Both are defensive studs. Nielsen in particular is a complete steal at $525k for this year and next (UFA after that). Imagine if one of 'em were centering Brooks Laich and Alexander Semin? Bailey is young (still on his ELC) and may very well be off the table, but for a good package I feel Nielsen could be had. (Sidenote: that kid Travis Hamonic, whom the Sportscentre guy mentions in the TSN 2010 WJC highlights as sitting out? Future Norris candidate, book it)

Atlanta: they honestly don't have very good players, at least among the forwards. Pass.

Florida: Stephen Weiss. See the McClement link above, again.

Tampa Bay: Pass. I'd like Lundin or Brewer, but both are UFA after this year, and the latter has a NTC.

Carolina: ...Joe Corvo doesn't look half bad.

GMGM Do's and Do Not's

As we near the trade deadline (only a few days away now!) and hence the "stretch run," George McPhee is focused on what to do and what not to do. What he does (or does not) will likely play a big role in the outcome of the season for the Capitals. Here's my advice to him and the Capitals' coaches.


Do: hear trade offers for Alexander Semin. See which teams might be interested. And see if you can acquire Ales Hemsky and trade Semin, essentially a lateral move in terms of talent but one which adds $2.5 million in cap room next season.


Do: trade for a second-line center. Marcus Johansson is good, but he's not out-dueling his opposition in all zones of the ice. Mathieu Perreault has...I don't even know what to make of him. I think he'll be a winger in the NHL, not a center. At any rate a line centered by Perreault needs sheltered minutes, leaving none for Johansson.

Do: inquire about a "veteran backup." Not because I fear Neuvirth and Varlamov can't handle the pressure, but because if they both get hurt again (they've both been hurt/unwell at the same time twice already this season) then the Caps are toast, in all likelihood. Jose Theodore is on a 1-year, $1.1 million contract, and could be a good third goalie. By all accounts he was a great teammate. Even if Theodore is simply a replacement-level NHL goalie, that's better than Holtby at this point, I'd say.

Do not: put Johansson and Chimera on the same line. This is all you need to see. At the very least, not without Fehr or Laich there too.

Do not: run Varlamov. Make sure he's healthy for the playoffs. He's the Caps' best goalie, but also the most fragile.

Do not: trade Brooks Laich. He's been great.

Do: look into trading John Erskine and David Steckel. Their contracts will hurt from next season onward, even if only in the short term. Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, and cheap FA defensemen can be rostered for less with minimal loss in contribution.

Do not: be afraid to trade a winger. Andrew Gordon is ready for the NHL.

Do: look into acquiring a top-pair, more defensive-minded defenseman. Well, the one such guy, Chris Phillips. With Poti's health far from guaranteed, pushing everyone save Green down a spot on the depth chart (Hannan to extra #1) would provide some extra insurance against injury. Moreover, Phillips looks like an ideal partner for Green, in the mold of a more mature Alzner, with good skating, puck moving, defensive instincts, and physical play. More ideal than Schultz or Hannan, anyways.

Do not: bench Nicklas Backstrom. Unless he's actually injured. Don't want to ruin his rhythm or his ironman streak.

Do: try and poach someone from the Devils. Not that they have lots of good players that could be had for less than a huge ransom, I guess.

Do not: trade Eric Fehr. Unless the return is really good. He's a legitimate possession forward who gets nowhere near as much credit or attention as he deserves...which means he's a good bet to sign for less than he's worth and outperform his contract(s) in the coming years.

Do not: trade for Brad Richards, unless the deal is highway robbery. Richards only produces like a 1C in Dallas because he gets the easiest minutes. He's not the player he was in Tampa Bay (decent 1C production despite tough matchups). And now he's having concussion issues. I'll pass.

Do not: trade Evgeny Kuznetsov. He's the only top-notch forward in the system at the moment.

Quick Thoughts on the Recent Trades

Blues get: D Kevin Shattenkirk, F Chris Stewart, 2nd round pick
Avalanche get: C Jay McClement, D Erik Johnson, 1st round pick

I think the Avalanche might have ripped off St. Louis. A young defenseman who has plenty of time to grow and an elite defensive forward for a in-his-prime (23 yrs old) power forward who gets easy zone starts and middling competition (with below-average teammates), but isn't break-even in Corsi, and a young D who was clearly "sold high" thanks to his hot 14pts-in-14gms start this season. The ages of Shattenkirk and Stewart, though, may make this deal a wash in overall impact. Over the next two years, though, no question Colorado wins.

Avalanche get: G Brian Elliott
Senators get: G Craig Anderson

I don't get this trade from an Avalanche perspective. They could have gotten something better than Elliott for Anderson: at the very least, a Ty Wishart-type defenseman.

Bruins get: D Tomas Kaberle
Maple Leafs get: 1st round pick, conditional second round pick, C Joe Colborne

I like this trade for both teams. Colborne is 21 and could reasonably become a bottom-six forward, and the Leafs also get picks to help themselves rebuild. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed some more top-end talent on the blueline. While Kaberle does need soft minutes, Zdeno Chara is already there to take the toughs, and guys like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are perfectly capable of playing top lines effectively as well.

Bruins get: C Rich Peverley, D Boris Valabik
Thrashers get: F Blake Wheeler, D Mark Stuart

Looks okay for both teams. One young power forward goes one way, a good 20-goal scorer the other, and a somewhat-young-defenseman swap.

Blackhawks get: F Michael Frolik, G Alexander Salak
Panthers get: F Jack Skille, F Hugh Jessiman, F David Pacan

Easily a win for Chicago--tough minutes top-6 forward, good goalie prospect, for a "project" power forward (think along the lines of Eric Fehr in 07-08, perhaps), a notable draft bust, and a longshot (6th round)-but-only-19 prospect forward.

Lightning get: D Eric Brewer
Blues get: 3rd round pick, F Brock Beukeboom

I don't understand what the Blues are doing. They are a top-5 team by Corsi, yet are trading away D. I understand they have tons of injuries, but they are young enough to be able to wait until next year. As for Brewer specifically, he is one of St. Louis' heavy lifters. Why trade him?

Sharks get: D Ian White
Hurricanes get: 2012 2nd round pick

Seems pretty fair.

Bruins get: C Chris Kelley
Senators get: 2nd round pick

Flyers get: F Kris Versteeg
Maple Leafs get: 1st round pick, 3rd round pick

Versteeg is a legitimate top-6 forward locked up for a couple of more years at a reasonable price. He gives the Flyers some more cap certainty. I do think they overpaid, though--a 2nd and 3rd, or 1st and 5th, may have done the trick as well.

Predators get: C Mike Fisher
Senators get: 1st round pick, conditional 2012 pick

The worst move I've ever seen GM David Poile make. There is little chance Fisher performs enough to warrant his cap hit, let alone overperform. And he's locked up for another two years after this one.

Ducks get: D Francois Beauchemin
Maple Leafs get: F Joffrey Lupul, D Jake Gardiner

Good move for the Ducks, getting a legitimate top-4 D to shore up their shoddy defense. I don't think, however, they should've made this trade--I expect them to fall out of the playoff picture, anyways. Gardiner per Hockey's Future is the Leafs' second-best prospect now (behind Nazem Kadri), so the Ducks gave up a ton of value for Beauchemin.

Just a Quick Thought

My best received post was the one earlier this year focusing on the fact that without Alex Ovechkin on the ice, the Caps' Corsi was essentially zero.

Unfortunately, the same is still true. Considering that Brooks Laich tends to play separately from Ovechkin, though, and that Laich has a pretty solid "Corsi On," I think it's safe to conclude that it is the Caps' bottom two forward lines that are dragging the team down: specifically, Jay Beagle, Marcus Johansson, David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, and Jason Chimera, along with Tyler Sloan, John Erskine, and Jeff Schultz.

Schultz is inexcusable--high quality teammates and decent zonestart, yet few results. Johansson (sorry, Marcus) is inexcusable too, with a 60% zonestart (even with tough competition and average teammates, that's a high zonestart, and considering his zonefinish is only 46%, he needs more sheltered minutes). We know the stories on Beagle, Sloan, and Erskine. Steckel and Gordon face tough competition with tough zonestart and no help. Chimera frequently starts in the defensive zone with below-average teammates and above-average competition.

How do we remedy the situation quickly? Here's my idea: find a 3C who moves the puck up the ice and doesn't need sheltered minutes. Move Johansson to that guy's wing or maybe 2LW. Sacrifice most of that 60% zonestart to give to Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, like they've had in prior years (sidenote: and Fedorov had a low zonestart too??? Shite). And find an upgrade on defense, since this season Schultz, Erskine, and Sloan haven't been good enough to be put together in any combination, and it's risky to pair them with someone else lest they drag that guy down too.

I'm firmly a believer that this team isn't that far away, contrary to what people and Corsi say (Corsi also says a similar roster was elite for two years, 5-6% better in tied Fenwick than now). I estimate getting better minutes out of Johansson's spot in the lineup will take this team to a 53% Fenwick (right now it's about 50-51%). While that's still not elite, it's as good as, say Boston, or Philadelphia last year. It gives this team a fighting chance to make the Stanley Cup Finals.

All that then needs to happen is for someone to knock off Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Considering teams like Florida, Montreal, and the New York Rangers are hanging around the bottom of the playoff picture, one--or both--of them getting upset in the first round is a very real possibility.

Season of the Goalies?

Is it just me, or have goalies been tearing up the league this season much more than usual?



(GVT from Behind the Net)

So in a quick and dirty look I'd say the good goalies are playing better than in years past, especially at even strength.

Which makes the Caps' inability to score all the more difficult to overcome.

In Defense of the Devils

(I wish I'd finished this post before the Devils caught fire)

The NHL's most disappointing team thus far this season has to be the New Jersey Devils.

After winning their division in 2010 and then adding Anton Volchenkov, Henrik Tallinder, and Jason Arnott, while losing a good defenseman in Paul Martin (who hardly played anyways, due to injury), they were probably penciled in by most as a solid playoff team, behind Pittsburgh (thanks to Shero's aggressive July 1 which landed Pittsburgh Zbynek Michalek and Martin) and Philadelphia (the defending Eastern Conference Champions, who solidified their third pair and added Nikolai Zherdev, losing Simon Gagne who'd missed 20+ games with injury).

With the Devils now sitting in lottery position, most people would say they are a terrible team. Hopefully after reading on, you won't be one of those people anymore.

The Tikkanen Conundrum

You, dear Caps fan (or not), have probably thought once "What if Tikkanen made the shot?"

Well, Tikkanen didn't, and I guess to many a Caps fan that means he "choked" at that moment.

What if he put that shot home? Would he be labeled as a "clutch" deadline acquisition who had the guts to deke and got himself an open net in which to score? What if he shot and was stopped by Vernon's aggressive goaltending? Would he be labeled a choker? I think so.

That got me thinking about Alexander Semin's playoff performance.

Love to Hate

A few days ago, I got finished playing possibly the best basketball game of my life. I relish the physical play. Even though I'm not too tall (5'8" according to the doctor, though I think I'm almost 5'10") I end up having to play power forward since I'm the second tallest student at school. I was scared going into the game, though, since every starter on the other team was taller than me and one was taller than our tallest player. Yikes.

I figure that if I can't beat the guys I have to defend and/or attack physically, I try and beat them mentally. I don't think I was Sean Avery, but I could definitely feel the Dustin Brown or David Backes. When I realized the ref wasn't calling many fouls, I started fouling when playing defense, and got away with a lot of them too. I pushed a lot, boxed out before shots came (putting my elbow in others' stomachs), blocked people's paths to the net, got in the way as they were driving, and jumped and made contact as they were shooting. I made sure to give each defender a shove to let him know I was there when trying to get around the guy. I pick-and-rolled to intentionally block the defender's path, too, and luckily the refs weren't calling moving pick fouls on me.

I don't consider myself dirty. I certainly don't try to hurt (too much). But borderline? Sure. Whatever gets the other guys off their games.

The other day, it worked pretty well. I could tell I was frustrating a few of those guys, who tried to push me back instead of continuing to battle for position under the net. On defense, they'd try and get on the opposite side of the half-court so as to avoid me (I hope). On offense, I'd get focused on--ironic, since I'm a terrible ball handler and panic when shooting in a game situation--and that would leave our star players open right next to me. If nothing else, I helped distract the other team's big guys from their defensive assignments. As such, while I only got around 9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals (actually, a great game for me), the person playing center (right next to me) for most of the game got around 35 points and 15 rebounds, I reckon.

I can't help but wonder if the Caps could use such a player, the type of player who other teams' fans will call various derogatory nicknames (laced with expletives) but whose own fans will, while admitting he may cross the line, still love him.

The very best of the "agitators" or semi-agitators will draw lots of penalties, take some unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, frustrate opposing stars, play with a lot of energy on the forecheck, and just overall make a nuisance of themselves. Matt Cooke was a great player in this mold that McPhee picked up at the 2008 deadline, but the organization has been lacking such a player since. Jason Chimera and Matt Hendricks are gritty forwards, but not the sort I might like to see. Stefan Della Rovere is one prospect who might be such a player in the future, but McPhee traded him over the summer for now-useless DJ King (remind me again why McPhee didn't simply keep Della Rovere and sign Zenon Konopka? Not as if GMGM was doing anything else on July 1...). In terms of GVT or Corsi I don't think agitators show up well, but they're a rare breed who, I think, can influence "luck" to turn in your team's favor more often than not, and seeing as they generally can actually play decent hockey, they won't be giving it back at their own end.

I'm certainly not advocating that the Capitals go out of their way to try and trade for a Steve Ott or David Backes-type of player. There aren't many good agitators who are good people off the ice as well (not-Sean-Averys), and they come a bit expensive. But I do want the Capitals to play with much more of an edge. And that starts with the captain, Александр Михайлович Овечкин.

Why It's Okay to "Carry" Your Partner

Carlson leads his Washington team with a +12 +/- rating.  Washington has been using John Carlson and Karl Alzner as their number one shutdown defensive line.  It is Carlson that is carrying the load on this line.  Alzner has spent the last two seasons splitting his time between the AHL and NHL and has not shown the same NHL skillset as Carlson. 

John Carlson is playing a significant defensive role and he is doing it very well.  He is carrying a lesser defence partner as he does this.  He is also putting up a respectable offensive showing.  This makes John Carlson the leading rookie this season.  He should be considered the Calder Trophy leader at this point, but his lack of a high point total has largely left him overlooked.

--The Puck Stops Here, Kuklas Korner.

There are two things being said here: one, that John Carlson is a stud (but we already knew that). The other is that perhaps Karl Alzner is a bit in over his head at this point. That's what Corsi indicates: before being paired with Alzner (this season), Carlson was still handling the toughs and had a Corsi Rel close to ten. Since being paired with Alzner, Carlson's Corsi Rel has fallen into the neighborhood of five, and Alzner has been hovering around zero or in low positives all along. And that's when Alzner has been getting the better teammates by Corsi Rel QoC (or at least better-performing teammates). It certainly seems like Puck Stops Here was right.

But that's okay.