Semin's (Regular) Inconsistency, Part 1

I looked at these basic numbers for Alexander Semin (courtesy of Hockey Reference) over the regular season. The list of data is here. I made two charts.



This shows 10-game rolling averages over Semin's post-lockout games played. As one would expect, for the most part, Semin was getting more shifts when he was shooting a higher percentage. The penalty minutes line paints a very interesting picture, and perhaps one fans might expect: when Semin's shooting percentage has its peaks, his PIM totals have their nadirs, and when shooting percentage falls sharply, PIM totals rise. I'm not quite sure how definitive of a trend that is, but it certainly does suggest Semin gets frustrated when he cannot convert, but when he is converting, he doesn't take those silly "HHT" penalties.

To normalize (no pun intended) the scales a little, I calculated z-scores for each point and plotted those against one another.



Aside from one point about 1/6th of the way through the graph, we see shift totals and shooting percentage follow each other. It also seems like Semin has lower PIM totals when he has lower shift totals, perhaps because he "gets the message" that he's being partially benched. Similarly, it looks like higher PIM totals are accompanied by higher shift totals, and although more TOI = more PIM, we're talking a couple of minutes here and there for the most part. In short, I give much more credence to the idea that Semin's mental state affects his play on-ice to a pretty significant extent.

Semin: Best a Stopper?

Even if playing Semin in a defensive role sacrifices his even strength offense, he's one of the best two-way players on the team. Reduced offense should, furthermore, lower his cost, which could mean he could stay with the team past 2011-2012 for much less than the $6.7 million hit he'll put on the cap. Moreover, style aside for a moment, using Sergei Fedorov and Nicklas Backstrom as the statistical examples of Semin's ideal linemates, Laich better matches Fedorov's ability to "tilt the ice" (good relative Corsi with not-so-easy minutes) and put up points at 5v5 (a little under 2 pts/60) than Marcus Johansson, who would presumably center Semin if not Laich.

This all made me think of whether Semin is best suited to be a "heavy lifter." Playing him for offense may lead to some issues. For one, playing him on the 2nd line means the team has two lines for offense without enough offensive ice time to go around (one of the two will have to take mediocre or poor zone starts, one of the two will have to take moderately difficult ice time thanks to time-on-ice distribution patterns--opposing poorer, lower-TOI players won't be out there enough for both Ovechkin and Semin's lines) to use their abilities to the fullest. With Laich the next best forward on the team, then, it makes sense to play Laich and Semin together. Since Laich (and any other option to play with Semin) lacks that high offensive production ability, and since Semin's game translates better between offense and defense than for other Caps forwards (except for Backstrom, I'd say), why not play them in a role that forces them to play both offense and defense? And if your third forward is probably going to bring much more defense than offense, why not skew their usage to favor defense? It will also free up the top line to get ice time more like the Sedin twins than like Ryan Kesler.

I'm not sure I'd do it, but that sort of split would definitely be on my radar if I were coaching the team. Then again, if I knew anything about the game I'd be in it.

Laich vs Semin

The Caps' second line wingers this past season were fairly exceptional. Brooks Laich played tough minutes, beat them, and as a result received Selke attention. Meanwhile, Alexander Semin too played tough minutes, and almost came out with the best relative Corsi rating among Caps forwards, trailing Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. While they didn't score as much as in years past, Laich and Semin drove the play in the right direction.

With Brooks Laich looking like he'll be an unrestricted free agent in a few days, and Semin a UFA a year from now, it's critical to know how much credit each deserves for their success at puck possession, considering how often they played together. Did they each share the burden of their heavy lifting? Did Laich benefit from extended periods of dominance from Semin? Did Semin benefit from Laich's attention to defense?

The Tikkanen Conundrum

You, dear Caps fan (or not), have probably thought once "What if Tikkanen made the shot?"

Well, Tikkanen didn't, and I guess to many a Caps fan that means he "choked" at that moment.

What if he put that shot home? Would he be labeled as a "clutch" deadline acquisition who had the guts to deke and got himself an open net in which to score? What if he shot and was stopped by Vernon's aggressive goaltending? Would he be labeled a choker? I think so.

That got me thinking about Alexander Semin's playoff performance.

Write-in Campaign for Alexander Semin?

From NHL.com, the guys who'll be on the all-star ballot in a couple of days:

TEAM	PLAYERS (100)
	Selanne, Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan (4)
	Byfuglien, Enstrom (2)
	Thomas, Chara, Bergeron, Krejci (4)
	Miller, Roy, Vanek (3)
	Kiprusoff, Bouwmeester, Iginla (3)
	Ward, Pitkanen, Staal (3)
	Campbell, Seabrook, Keith, Kane, Toews, Hossa (6)
	Anderson, Stastny, Hejduk (3)
	Nash, Umberger (2)
	Richards B., Morrow, Robidas (3)
	Rafalski, Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen (5)
	Khabibulin, Hemsky (2)
	Vokoun, McCabe, Booth (3)
	Quick, Smyth, Doughty, Kopitar (4)
	Backstrom, Koivu M., Zidlicky (3)
	Markov, Cammalleri, Gionta (3)
	Rinne, Suter, Weber (3)
	Brodeur, Parise, Kovalchuk (3)
	Streit, Tavares (2)
	Lundqvist, Gaborik, Staal M. (3)
	Alfredsson, Gonchar, Spezza (3)
	Pronger, Timonen, Richards M., Carter, Briere (5)
	Bryzgalov, Doan, Jovanovski (3)
	Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, Martin (4)
	Niemi, Boyle, Thornton, Marleau, Heatley (5)
	Halak, Oshie (2)
	Stamkos, Lecavalier, St. Louis (3)
	Giguere, Phaneuf, Kaberle, Kessel (4)
	Luongo, Sedin D., Sedin H., Hamhuis (4)
	Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green (3)

Fun with Timeonice

Thanks to Vic Ferrari's awesome playershot scripts...

Last season, with the score tied, Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom together were a 54.3% Fenwick duo (link).

With the Capitals trailing, 8-19 were a 66.7% Fenwick (link). Throw in Semin and that becomes 68.1% (link). Have Knuble instead of Semin and it's a 70.7% (link).

Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews together, with the score tied, were 59.6% (link). They were 68.6% when trailing (link).

Meanwhile, as a team, the Capitals were 59.9% while trailing. The Hawks were 66.8%, and actually right around 59% with the game tied.

I'd wager the Capitals can ramp it up more if they're trailing because a rush-centered offense coupled with a conservative defense by the other team generates lots of shots without allowing many, but with the game tied, the Hawks play a better two-way style. Model yourselves after the Hawks, boys.

30 Caps in 30 Days: Alexander Semin

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Teammates are those listed at 10% or greater and at even strength (though the percentage includes all manpower situations). Today, Alexander Semin)

Alexander Semin: age 26, 6'2", 205 pounds, shoots right.
Contract: $6 million, UFA in 2011, per Capgeek.
2009-2010 linemates: 21% Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, 18% Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich, 10% Brendan Morrison and Brooks Laich
2010 playoff linemates: 19% Brooks Laich and Brendan Morrison, 16% Eric Belanger and Tomas Fleischmann, 10% Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 73 GP, 40-44-84, +36, 278 shots, 66 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 0-2-2, +0, 44 shots, 4 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 6th in Corsi QoC, 2nd in Corsi Rel QoC, 4th in Corsi QoT and in Corsi Rel QoT. Zonestart 54.0% offensive zone (seventh) with Zonefinish 52.6% offensive zone (sixth). Corsi Rel 4.9, 6th on team.
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 4th in Corsi QoC and in Corsi Rel QoC, 7th in Corsi QoT, and 6th in Corsi Rel QoT.

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Complete Semin WOWY

Just for sake of completeness I'll do the Semin WOWY including Eric Belanger and the Caps' defensemen: Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Joe Corvo, Brian Pothier, Shaone Morrisonn, Milan Jurcina, John Erskine, Tom Poti, Tyler Sloan, and John Carlson.

Note that the first player's column in the second chart is Semin himself.

Delta1 is how much better the player's Corsi% is with Semin than without Semin. Delta2 is how much better Semin's Corsi% is with the player than without the player.

I made a mistake calculating Delta1 and Delta2 for the forwards, so I've included that data again as well. I threw in Belanger to the far right, though I wouldn't put too much stock into his numbers because of how much he was shuffled around.

How Good is Alexander Semin?

This upcoming season, George McPhee has a big decision to make regarding the future of Alexander Semin--to either keep him and sign him to an extension, keep him and let him go, or trade him. To sign Semin means to invest a lot of money in a guy who at best is the second best winger on his team, a guy probably "doomed" to be a second liner in Washington (admittedly not too bad). To keep him and let him walk on July 1 means to hope that Alexander Semin takes a hot streak into the playoffs and stays healthy, immediately taking the Capitals from dangerous to very dangerous, and to trade him means to take a good return to help build for the future and/or be more set at center or defense (or wing, but that wouldn't make much sense) for the playoffs. Obviously, there are pros and cons to each situation. It will be best if McPhee knows exactly how much Semin is worth and extracts that much value from him, if not more.

One way to look at how good a player is is by looking at Corsi: specifically, how well a player does with and without his regular linemates, to try and estimate how much success can be attributed to the player in question. It's called with-you-without-you analysis (WOWY for short). Some examples are these on Alex Ovechkin, Shawn Horcoff, Frans Nielsen, Ilya Kovalchuk, Paul Martin, Travis Zajac, Ales Hemsky, Jason Strudwick, and Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky.