Varlavirth Should be Starting the Playoffs

...not Braden Holtby.

If you've been in the comments section on Japers' Rink, you've seen me say this in bits and pieces, but I want to reiterate again.

No Need For a Veteran in Net

Why do people say teams need veteran presence in the playoffs, especially in net?

1. Fans see some inexperienced goalies falter, mistakes that are magnified in the small sample that is a playoff series, leading to confirmation bias of the cliche that you need veterans.
2. Goalies collapse under playoff pressure.

To the first, I say this: whether or not a goalie is on a hot or cold streak, his expected level of performance in his next game is his true talent level, adjusted for shot and shooter quality. That is, pretty much his save percentage over about the last thousand shots or so (unless the goalie has really improved, like Ward and Fleury this season).

Regardless, some goalies do go on hot streaks. Inexperienced goalies don't have enough of a sample of shots faced to tell us their true talent level, so whenever a coach finds one (Reimer, for example, or Varlamov 2009), he runs with him. The dude usually ends up being nothing special. The playoff letdown, then, is nothing other than an end to the hot streak. And keep in mind that goalie hot streaks can extend over an entire season.

To the second, every player nowadays is plenty experienced--peewee championships in all likelihood, and for most notables, world junior championships too. The WJC < Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that international stage is pretty huge nonetheless. It's a very rare guy that collapses or excels (more than normal) under pressure, and for goalies, at least, it's not like we can tell the difference.

Have confidence in Varlavirthby. They're one of three reasons I can still be hopeful for these playoffs.

Is Semyon Varlamov Elite?

Well, let's take a look. I ran 100,000 trials of Varlamov's career to date, assuming a .915 talent total and .920 at even strength (approximately NHL average).

Varlamov thus far has been .930 at ES and .918 total (he had a brutal PK sv% last season, about 80%, only better than Vesa Toskala).

Results:

          0.904    0.909    0.914    0.919     0.924     0.929     0.934    0.939    0.944    1.000
ES      2472    6380     14007    22662    24754    17897    8691    2629     451       57
Total   1969    5982     16916   24357     25097    18152    5889    1485     143       10

The numbers denote the number of times I got a save percentage less than or equal to the one heading the column, but greater than the one heading the previous column (so first column is save percentage under .904, second is .904 to .909, etc).

So there's still roughly a 11% chance Varlamov is simply average and overperforming at even strength. That's not all that big. It's tougher to say where Varlamov lies overall.

Looks to me like George McPhee has a 22-year old stud on his hands.

Code is after the jump. I think it's fairly straightforward should you ever want to edit it. If you aren't familiar with Java and want standard deviation and mean coded in, shoot me an email and I'll send you a revised program.

Quality Starts

Evaluating goaltending is difficult. Wins are a BS stat, GAA relies heavily on how many shots your defense actually gives up, save percentage is strong affected by special teams (especially the essentially-random PK sv%), and even strength save percentage requires a big sample to sort through the goalies. And so on.

A better metric may be quality starts. To get a "quality start," a goalie has to either:

a) Stop an above average number of shots (.912 this season)
OR
b) Allow 2 goals or less with a save percentage greater than .880

Teams on average win about 75% of their goalies' quality starts, and win about 25% without a quality start. If the goalie stops less than 85% of shots against, we'll call it a really bad start.

So how are the Caps and their opponents doing in terms of quality starts?

30 Caps in 30 Days: Semyon Varlamov

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--from today on, forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night, and linemates are those listed at even strength at 10% or greater. Today, my final edition--Semyon Varlamov)

Semyon Varlamov: age 22, 6'1", 183 pounds, catches left.
Contract: entry-level, $62.5k in AHL, $765k in NHL with $822k cap hit, RFA in 2011, per Capgeek.

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 26 GP, 15-4-6, 2.55 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO
Playoffs: 6 GP, 3-3, 2.41 GAA, .908 SV%, 0 SO
AHL: 3 GP, 3-0-0, 1.95 GAA, .933 SV%, 0 SO



(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)