I was bored last night, so I tried my hand at running the numbers. I think most of these are correct. Note that these are shots, just goals and SOG. Realized only after finishing that I'd forgotten to include misses and blocks.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Thinking about top teams
I was really excited for this season. Adam Oates was preaching a style I liked, and I thought it would be a good fit for this team with its good D corps. Green, Alzner, Carlson, Orlov, and Hamrlik are all capable of passing the puck, which is really important in a high-pressure system--get the puck to the forwards as quickly as possible.
But Orlov has been hurt, Hamrlik a healthy scratch, and Green gets hurt every couple of days, it seems. The D isn't a strength, and the forwards certainly aren't. The roster clearly needs some changes.
Looking at the teams that have been consistently near the top of the standings, I feel like loading up on forwards is the way to go.
Look at Pittsburgh. They had the three center model, now two centers and a wing. They supported them with nice role players--Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, Tyler Kennedy, etc. Their possession game is all about getting the puck out of their zone and up the ice as quickly as possible.
Look at Chicago. That team, since its Cup run, has still been very, very good. (The 2010 team was ridiculous.) The Hawks are built around Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa up front, and Keith and Seabrook on the blueline. Sure, there are other guys in there, too--the speedy Stalberg, Bolland who is sometimes a Malhotra-lite (lots of defensive faceoffs and tough matchups), and some nice young players for depth. But it's still a team built around its star power--a dynamic duo on the first and second lines, and one D that can carry a weaker partner on each of the top two pairs.
Look at Detroit. Lidstrom was their only, truly, great two-way D for a few years. But he could take the tough matchups, and both Datsyuk and Zetterberg can each carry a line. Up front, Filppula, Franzen, and a few others provided some nice support. This team cycles really well, reducing the burden on its D.
Look at Boston. Chara is a great D, Seidenberg is solid, but the rest of their blueline is mediocre-to-bad. But up front, the Bruins are two top lines deep: Lucic-Krejci-Horton and Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand. And Bergeron can handle the tough matchups, meaning easy jobs for the rest of Boston's forwards.
Look at Los Angeles. Kopitar, Brown, and Williams make a good power-versus-power top line, Richards and Carter can be top liners on other teams, and so on. Their D, meanwhile, is good, but really, the standout is Doughty. The rest of the top four--Scuderi, Voynov, Mitchell, perhaps--are 2nd pair guys who have had to move up. Not like Vancouver, which is four top pair D deep.
And the team that LA beat to win the Cup, New Jersey, doesn't exactly have a great blueline either. Zidlicky, Greene, Fayne, Volchenkov, Salvador, and company aren't exactly big names. But they all have their skillsets and they're competent. Throw in the Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk line and the veteran Elias anchoring the second, along with some nice depth players, and you've got a team that, again, is build around forwards with competent, but not outstanding, personnel on the blueline.
To be sure, there are counterexamples. Tampa Bay had a strong top six and crappy D last year and was awful. (Although, considering their blueline is much better this year while the team is not, I'd say issues are more systemic than roster-related.) Philadelphia has been falling off as Timonen ages, Carle left, and Pronger has been out, despite great forward depth. The aforementioned Canucks have great depth at every position thanks to good cap management and coaches and management being on the same page.
But I think in short, the easiest, most reliable way to construct a great possession team--which the Caps haven't been since 08-09, and they haven't even been good since the early part of 11-12, either--is through some star power up front. That will probably require some big trades (e.g. M. Richards, Carter, Neal, Horton) or free agent signings (Hossa) but it can be done.
Round out the blueline with decent defensemen that fit the system, making sure that there's at least one unit that can beat the other team's top line--with Ryan O'Reilly off the market for the next year, this is where Paul Stastny could come in handy, playing with Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson--and you should have what Leonsis planned when he signed Ovechkin to the monster contract: a team that is very good every year, and occasionally elite.
But Orlov has been hurt, Hamrlik a healthy scratch, and Green gets hurt every couple of days, it seems. The D isn't a strength, and the forwards certainly aren't. The roster clearly needs some changes.
Looking at the teams that have been consistently near the top of the standings, I feel like loading up on forwards is the way to go.
Look at Pittsburgh. They had the three center model, now two centers and a wing. They supported them with nice role players--Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, Tyler Kennedy, etc. Their possession game is all about getting the puck out of their zone and up the ice as quickly as possible.
Look at Chicago. That team, since its Cup run, has still been very, very good. (The 2010 team was ridiculous.) The Hawks are built around Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa up front, and Keith and Seabrook on the blueline. Sure, there are other guys in there, too--the speedy Stalberg, Bolland who is sometimes a Malhotra-lite (lots of defensive faceoffs and tough matchups), and some nice young players for depth. But it's still a team built around its star power--a dynamic duo on the first and second lines, and one D that can carry a weaker partner on each of the top two pairs.
Look at Detroit. Lidstrom was their only, truly, great two-way D for a few years. But he could take the tough matchups, and both Datsyuk and Zetterberg can each carry a line. Up front, Filppula, Franzen, and a few others provided some nice support. This team cycles really well, reducing the burden on its D.
Look at Boston. Chara is a great D, Seidenberg is solid, but the rest of their blueline is mediocre-to-bad. But up front, the Bruins are two top lines deep: Lucic-Krejci-Horton and Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand. And Bergeron can handle the tough matchups, meaning easy jobs for the rest of Boston's forwards.
Look at Los Angeles. Kopitar, Brown, and Williams make a good power-versus-power top line, Richards and Carter can be top liners on other teams, and so on. Their D, meanwhile, is good, but really, the standout is Doughty. The rest of the top four--Scuderi, Voynov, Mitchell, perhaps--are 2nd pair guys who have had to move up. Not like Vancouver, which is four top pair D deep.
And the team that LA beat to win the Cup, New Jersey, doesn't exactly have a great blueline either. Zidlicky, Greene, Fayne, Volchenkov, Salvador, and company aren't exactly big names. But they all have their skillsets and they're competent. Throw in the Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk line and the veteran Elias anchoring the second, along with some nice depth players, and you've got a team that, again, is build around forwards with competent, but not outstanding, personnel on the blueline.
To be sure, there are counterexamples. Tampa Bay had a strong top six and crappy D last year and was awful. (Although, considering their blueline is much better this year while the team is not, I'd say issues are more systemic than roster-related.) Philadelphia has been falling off as Timonen ages, Carle left, and Pronger has been out, despite great forward depth. The aforementioned Canucks have great depth at every position thanks to good cap management and coaches and management being on the same page.
But I think in short, the easiest, most reliable way to construct a great possession team--which the Caps haven't been since 08-09, and they haven't even been good since the early part of 11-12, either--is through some star power up front. That will probably require some big trades (e.g. M. Richards, Carter, Neal, Horton) or free agent signings (Hossa) but it can be done.
Round out the blueline with decent defensemen that fit the system, making sure that there's at least one unit that can beat the other team's top line--with Ryan O'Reilly off the market for the next year, this is where Paul Stastny could come in handy, playing with Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson--and you should have what Leonsis planned when he signed Ovechkin to the monster contract: a team that is very good every year, and occasionally elite.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Tanking...meh
I'm unsure about this tanking idea for the Caps.
It makes pretty intuitive sense. They have a slim shot at the playoffs, needing to play at a 100-110 pt pace the rest of the way (probably), and given that they've only had about six weeks with this system and are still working on it, well, I'm not super optimistic they'll play like a top seed from here on out.
Even if they do make the playoffs, if they don't win the division--Carolina is pretty good, after all--they'll end up as a 6/7/8 seed. I see two legit contenders in the East, Pittsburgh and Boston. So the reward for that run to the postseason, last playoffs notwithstanding, is a likely first-round exit.
Edit: after the win over Carolina, a division title is a little more likely. Regardless, though, I doubt the team will be this far down the standings with less than 30 games to go regularly. The circumstances necessary for a good team to even consider tanking don't come around all the time. This season, they have.
So why not tank for a draft pick? Grab one of the top six--Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin appear to be the best prospects since John Tavares, while Elias Lindholm, projected in the 4-6 range, is putting up Backstrom-level numbers in the SEL--and it seems like you've added someone who can step into the lineup within two years and be a top-six forward or top-four D, with elite upside.
So say the Capitals opt for that path and try to tank. What has to happen?
Well, they've been playing better lately. That needs to stop. So do we ask the team to just stop learning the system and freelance or trap like it's in style? That is, ask the players to play bad hockey on purpose. That defeats the purpose of tanking--the draft pick would help for the future, but erasing the progress of the last six weeks does not.
Do we get rid of talent? The idea is to make a roster so bad that even if it executes its system well, it simply can't match up to NHL teams. Ribeiro is an easy trade option and should be able to fetch a first-round pick. After that...you're not trading Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich, Carlson, Alzner, Orlov, or Holtby. Aside from maybe Johansson, Neuvirth, and Brouwer, no one else is going to fetch anything worthwhile on their own. I think this roster, minus Ribeiro, still is good enough to end up in 9th or 10th, maybe just two or three points back of where it would be with Ribeiro.
You could package the depth together and trade it away en masse, but that's a bad idea. The 3rd and 4th lines and the 3rd pair (when the D is healthy) are real strong suits on this team. Trading away guys from those lines means you have to rebuild them this summer, probably with overpriced UFAs. It's not worth it.
The only other option I can think of is to hope players get injured and place them on IR for the rest of the season. That could work. Start with Green the next time he gets hurt, let Laich and Orlov stay out, and if both goalies get hurt, fantastic. But that's a longshot, I think. As long as Ovechkin, Backstrom, one goalie, and Carlzner are healthy, I don't see injuries being enough of an issue to keep this team at the bottom of the standings.
As currently constructed, I'd say the team is very likely to end the season around the playoff border, either just in or just out. Just out means poor draft position, just in means that and getting destroyed by one the two true contenders in the East (Pittsburgh and Boston...I'm not a believer in NJ and NYR), unless Washington takes the division.
I think the best course of action is to accumulate picks for this season. Quantity over quality. Get a first for Ribeiro, see what you can get for Neuvirth, Johansson, Hamrlik, and Schultz, as well as others who you don't see fitting Oates' system. Four or five picks in the first two rounds gives McPhee some nice assets to use at the draft.
And make a hard push for Ryan O'Reilly--he's a better player than everyone on this team save Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Carlson if his head is in the game. (Carlson's contract is a huge plus in his favor, too, compared to O'Reilly, who's asking for closer to market price.) Trade for him, give him what he wants, and suddenly you have the best 1-2 punch down the middle outside of Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. Maybe you have something like this (via Capgeek):
FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.500m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Cheap and skilled, a la Wolski / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Filip Forsberg ($1.492m)
Fast, gritty 4LW / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Fast, gritty 4RW
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.500m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.800m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m) / Cameron Schilling ($1.775m)
John Erskine ($1.963m)
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $60,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,934,295; BONUSES: $1,710,000
CAP SPACE (18-man roster): $6,775,705
-->traded Laich and Johansson (plus picks, maybe) for rights to O'Reilly.
It makes pretty intuitive sense. They have a slim shot at the playoffs, needing to play at a 100-110 pt pace the rest of the way (probably), and given that they've only had about six weeks with this system and are still working on it, well, I'm not super optimistic they'll play like a top seed from here on out.
Even if they do make the playoffs, if they don't win the division--Carolina is pretty good, after all--they'll end up as a 6/7/8 seed. I see two legit contenders in the East, Pittsburgh and Boston. So the reward for that run to the postseason, last playoffs notwithstanding, is a likely first-round exit.
Edit: after the win over Carolina, a division title is a little more likely. Regardless, though, I doubt the team will be this far down the standings with less than 30 games to go regularly. The circumstances necessary for a good team to even consider tanking don't come around all the time. This season, they have.
So why not tank for a draft pick? Grab one of the top six--Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin appear to be the best prospects since John Tavares, while Elias Lindholm, projected in the 4-6 range, is putting up Backstrom-level numbers in the SEL--and it seems like you've added someone who can step into the lineup within two years and be a top-six forward or top-four D, with elite upside.
So say the Capitals opt for that path and try to tank. What has to happen?
Well, they've been playing better lately. That needs to stop. So do we ask the team to just stop learning the system and freelance or trap like it's in style? That is, ask the players to play bad hockey on purpose. That defeats the purpose of tanking--the draft pick would help for the future, but erasing the progress of the last six weeks does not.
Do we get rid of talent? The idea is to make a roster so bad that even if it executes its system well, it simply can't match up to NHL teams. Ribeiro is an easy trade option and should be able to fetch a first-round pick. After that...you're not trading Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich, Carlson, Alzner, Orlov, or Holtby. Aside from maybe Johansson, Neuvirth, and Brouwer, no one else is going to fetch anything worthwhile on their own. I think this roster, minus Ribeiro, still is good enough to end up in 9th or 10th, maybe just two or three points back of where it would be with Ribeiro.
You could package the depth together and trade it away en masse, but that's a bad idea. The 3rd and 4th lines and the 3rd pair (when the D is healthy) are real strong suits on this team. Trading away guys from those lines means you have to rebuild them this summer, probably with overpriced UFAs. It's not worth it.
The only other option I can think of is to hope players get injured and place them on IR for the rest of the season. That could work. Start with Green the next time he gets hurt, let Laich and Orlov stay out, and if both goalies get hurt, fantastic. But that's a longshot, I think. As long as Ovechkin, Backstrom, one goalie, and Carlzner are healthy, I don't see injuries being enough of an issue to keep this team at the bottom of the standings.
As currently constructed, I'd say the team is very likely to end the season around the playoff border, either just in or just out. Just out means poor draft position, just in means that and getting destroyed by one the two true contenders in the East (Pittsburgh and Boston...I'm not a believer in NJ and NYR), unless Washington takes the division.
I think the best course of action is to accumulate picks for this season. Quantity over quality. Get a first for Ribeiro, see what you can get for Neuvirth, Johansson, Hamrlik, and Schultz, as well as others who you don't see fitting Oates' system. Four or five picks in the first two rounds gives McPhee some nice assets to use at the draft.
And make a hard push for Ryan O'Reilly--he's a better player than everyone on this team save Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Carlson if his head is in the game. (Carlson's contract is a huge plus in his favor, too, compared to O'Reilly, who's asking for closer to market price.) Trade for him, give him what he wants, and suddenly you have the best 1-2 punch down the middle outside of Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. Maybe you have something like this (via Capgeek):
FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.500m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Cheap and skilled, a la Wolski / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Filip Forsberg ($1.492m)
Fast, gritty 4LW / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Fast, gritty 4RW
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.500m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.800m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m) / Cameron Schilling ($1.775m)
John Erskine ($1.963m)
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $60,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,934,295; BONUSES: $1,710,000
CAP SPACE (18-man roster): $6,775,705
-->traded Laich and Johansson (plus picks, maybe) for rights to O'Reilly.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Thoughts on the first weekend
Two days' worth of games in the books.
- The Rangers did not look good against Boston (and I'm guessing they didn't look good against Pittsburgh, either). Of course, they looked like a good team, but for a team laced with Stanley Cup expectations, they spent too much time chasing the puck. I still felt like John Tortorella was holding them back. There's no point in bringing in creative players like Brad Richards and Rick Nash if they have to play within a system everywhere they go on the ice. And that defensive zone strategy...I think they'd be better served to be more aggressive and try to win the possession battle. They still struck me as a team that is reactive rather than proactive (like New Jersey, Los Angeles, or St. Louis), and I don't think that's going to get it done.
- Every team needs to copy Philadelphia's strategy to play against Pittsburgh. Rivalry aside, there's more that the Flyers do to get Pittsburgh off its game. They forecheck aggressively and force the Penguins' defensemen to make quick choices. Since only Letang is capable of making good, quick choices, it works. I guess Shero and Bylsma have tried to cover up that flaw by exclusively icing defensemen that are pretty mobile, but Philly has got a pretty up-tempo forward corps, so I guess that's their effective counter. (Also, crashing the net and matching Giroux to Crosby seems helpful.)
- It seems like if you don't play the Blues exactly the right way, they dominate. It was stunning to see them dominate the shot clock like they did against Detroit, though, because, well, the Red Wings are known for possession as well. (St. Louis also did that against Washington last season.)
- It's nice to see the Sharks and Blackhawks get off on the right foot. I think they were both pretty underrated heading into the year (San Jose more than Chicago).
- When did Cory Schneider become the starter for Vancouver? If memory serves, he started one game in the playoffs last year, and over the summer (when Vancouver didn't make any goalie changes) he somehow supplants Roberto Luongo? I'm not referring here to Alain Vigneault's choice to start Schneider against Anaheim, but at the media's willingness to play along. Schneider is as much a starter as Holtby is.
- Washington should not really be in 50/50 games with Tampa Bay. It's one thing when you play a little better than your opponent and sometimes lose because the shots don't go in or the other goalie plays well. It's another when your caliber of play fluctuates as well. I didn't like what I saw of that game, especially from the top line. It wasn't awful, but I expected better. Hopefully the next game follows the expected script a little better.
- How soon will Tomas Kundratek get a call-up?
Sunday, January 13, 2013
30 Expectations for the 2013 season
1. At least one postseason "lock" (Chicago, Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Jose, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Boston) will miss the playoffs.
2. Evgeni Malkin will not be a Hart finalist. Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby will be.
3. Dan Bylsma starts Tomas Vokoun at least 25 times between the regular season and playoffs, helping the Penguins to win the President's Trophy.
4. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom both finish over a point-per-game and Braden Holtby wins the starting goalie job as the Capitals win the Southeast, which is the East's best division.
5. None of the mainstream rookies (Jonathan Huberdeau, Nail Yakupov, Vladimir Tarasenko, Mikael Granlund, Justin Schultz) win the Calder Trophy.
2. Evgeni Malkin will not be a Hart finalist. Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby will be.
3. Dan Bylsma starts Tomas Vokoun at least 25 times between the regular season and playoffs, helping the Penguins to win the President's Trophy.
4. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom both finish over a point-per-game and Braden Holtby wins the starting goalie job as the Capitals win the Southeast, which is the East's best division.
5. None of the mainstream rookies (Jonathan Huberdeau, Nail Yakupov, Vladimir Tarasenko, Mikael Granlund, Justin Schultz) win the Calder Trophy.
Monday, August 27, 2012
More summer thoughts
Calder race
The Calder race should be interesting. While NY scrutiny probably has led to Chris Kreider becoming the preseason favorite, I think he's one of the longer shots among players "on the radar." I'm guessing it'll take more than 20 goals and 50 points to win it. Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and Ryan Callahan I'm sure will hit that mark (if healthy), and Derek Stepan seems like a decent bet. Six 20-50 players is an awful lot. Don't think Kreider makes it.
So which other forwards are out there?
The Calder race should be interesting. While NY scrutiny probably has led to Chris Kreider becoming the preseason favorite, I think he's one of the longer shots among players "on the radar." I'm guessing it'll take more than 20 goals and 50 points to win it. Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and Ryan Callahan I'm sure will hit that mark (if healthy), and Derek Stepan seems like a decent bet. Six 20-50 players is an awful lot. Don't think Kreider makes it.
So which other forwards are out there?
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Monday, August 6, 2012
An Island of Misfit Toys
I haven't seen anyone actually try to create Marc Crawford's idea of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
I'm considering the guys criticized for intangibles and consistency, of course, but also those who are massively undervalued (often because being overpaid is equated with being flat-out bad). I'll admit there's plenty of guesswork since I'm not exactly dialed into what GMs think, so I'll go off what I hear in the media and around the internet.
I'll also include guys who are still FA (except Shane Doan).
I'm considering the guys criticized for intangibles and consistency, of course, but also those who are massively undervalued (often because being overpaid is equated with being flat-out bad). I'll admit there's plenty of guesswork since I'm not exactly dialed into what GMs think, so I'll go off what I hear in the media and around the internet.
I'll also include guys who are still FA (except Shane Doan).
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Summer thoughts
Dominic Moore. I think the optimal line combinations for this team have Laich on Ribeiro's wing. Ribeiro doesn't put up giant relative plus-minus ratings, which means that for all the offense he gets you, well, he gives a lot of it back at the other end. I think a huge reason why Laich looked so good in 10-11 was being able to do what he does best--play defense, get the puck, and then speed into the play--and leave the possession game over the rest of the ice to Semin and Carlzner.
I don't think Ribeiro is as good a 5v5 complement to Laich as Semin was in 10-11 (or good at fives, period, for that matter), but Ribeiro and a guy like Wolski and Chimera plus the D support could easily be better support than Semin, the possession zero 2C of the day, and young Carlzner. But without Laich, I think that line could be dangerously close to being a liability on the ice, scoring a lot but being outscored themselves. Ribeiro is not getting any younger, after all.
That's where Dominic Moore can help. He can play the same role Laich did last year (taking a little less ice time in all situations, though). He can push Laich up the depth chart, into a role where he's the only defensive specialist and not the only capable forward offensively (like he was with Ward and Chimera).
You could do worse than Brooks Laich at 3C. But I think overall, Moore at 3C and Laich at 2LW is better than, say, Chimera at 2LW and Laich at 3C.
I don't think McPhee is looking to add a forward, given that the team has 13 already and has largely been adding depth. But if you add Moore and trade a fourth-liner for something like "future considerations," well, I'd call that a net win.
I don't think Ribeiro is as good a 5v5 complement to Laich as Semin was in 10-11 (or good at fives, period, for that matter), but Ribeiro and a guy like Wolski and Chimera plus the D support could easily be better support than Semin, the possession zero 2C of the day, and young Carlzner. But without Laich, I think that line could be dangerously close to being a liability on the ice, scoring a lot but being outscored themselves. Ribeiro is not getting any younger, after all.
That's where Dominic Moore can help. He can play the same role Laich did last year (taking a little less ice time in all situations, though). He can push Laich up the depth chart, into a role where he's the only defensive specialist and not the only capable forward offensively (like he was with Ward and Chimera).
You could do worse than Brooks Laich at 3C. But I think overall, Moore at 3C and Laich at 2LW is better than, say, Chimera at 2LW and Laich at 3C.
I don't think McPhee is looking to add a forward, given that the team has 13 already and has largely been adding depth. But if you add Moore and trade a fourth-liner for something like "future considerations," well, I'd call that a net win.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Alex Ovechkin's assists
Ovechkin's assist totals: 54, 26, 47, 54, 59, 53, 27. At ES, 23, 25, 32, 27, 36, 36, 17. Over the last five years in ES primary assists/60, that goes .97, .81, 1.30, 1.08, 0.39. I'm skeptical Ovechkin took such a big step backward in his play that he "deserved" to lose about half of his ES assists. In other words, I think 27 assists is a severe underestimate of his "true talent" for the 2011-2012 season.
Given that differences from ~league average in on-ice shooting percentage, outside of the exceptional cases, stem from a player's individual shot location, not the shot location of his linemates, and given Ovechkin shot 10.9% at fives himself but as a team he got 8.75% on-ice shooting, it might be worthwhile to see just how well his support was converting, and whether that rate is egregiously low or high.
Given that differences from ~league average in on-ice shooting percentage, outside of the exceptional cases, stem from a player's individual shot location, not the shot location of his linemates, and given Ovechkin shot 10.9% at fives himself but as a team he got 8.75% on-ice shooting, it might be worthwhile to see just how well his support was converting, and whether that rate is egregiously low or high.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Thoughts on Ribeiro
It'll be interesting to see how the Capitals do with a center who can put up some solid offensive numbers.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Snepsts Caps projections
Rob Vollman released the Snepsts projections for next season. Snepsts uses era-adjusted statistics (including GVT) to find close comparables to the player in question and uses those comparables' performance to set the bar for the current player. It's along the same lines as Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA (which is the hockey version of baseball's PECOTA), but sacrifices sample size for accuracy.
Here's what it projects for next season. All figures are rounded. The information after the goals-assists-points totals are Snepsts' closest comparable found and the year of that comparable performance.
Ovechkin: 31-37-68 (Heatley 2009)
Backstrom: 21-49-70 (Juneau 1994)
Laich: 16-24-41 (Bourne 1984)
Johansson: 12-20-33 (Zanussi 1980)
Perreault: 18-20-38 (Lacroix 1997)
Chimera: 12-14-26 (Zamuner 2001)
Hendricks: 6-14-20 (Podein 1999)
Ward: 9-16-25 (Cooke 2008)
Brouwer: 17-18-35 (Lindgren 2000)
Beagle: 3-5-8 (Boll 2011)
Green: 8-19-26 (B. Stuart 2007)
Carlson: 9-27-36 (B. Stuart 2003)
Alzner: 3-10-13 (Doak 1972)
Hamrlik: 4-14-18 (Lumme 2002)
Erskine: 2-6-18 (Huscroft 1997)
Schultz: 3-10-13 (Houda 1990)
Crosby: 51-76-127
Malkin: 36-48-84
Stamkos: 43-49-93
The total of the 10 forwards and six defensemen comes out to 174 goals. That's barely 2 goals a game. Luckily, I think there are some underestimates here:
Green--each "comparable" has a "sim" score, which denotes how close the match is (smaller is better). While most players had a match with a sim score in single digits, Green did not. I think it's fair to think he produces at least a handful more goals than the eight here.
Ovechkin--I'm optimistic. I think he hits 35 regardless of coach, thanks to an improved power play, and with a good coach hits 40. There's another handful or so. Ovechkin was another player who didn't exactly have a close comparable, like Green. Given that coaching likely deflated Ovechkin's numbers, I think the search registered worse comparables than he deserved (which is saying something, considering the comparables include Heatley, Kariya, Robataille, Hawerchuk, Nilsson, and Tkachuk).
Johansson--the kid has shown so much scoring ability already, and he's not even strong.
I suppose I should also mention what I think are overestimates (excluding players in the single digits):
Perreault--he won't shoot over 20% again.
Luckily, that's it.
Add that up and we have 180-185 or so. Short of adding two 30-goal scorers, this picture makes the team's offense next season seem destined to crave mediocrity. I think it's fair to guess this team adds ~30 goals scored from free agency (speaking of raw production, not GVT here: that's three third liners). That brings us up to 215, which would have ranked 15th this season, three fewer than the real Caps scored (that seems better when you consider Semin isn't counted here).
McPhee had better hit a home run with this new coach. If the coach can be worth 30 goals or so, suddenly you're looking at 240 goals and a top-5 offense. It doesn't have to just come at even strength--take the Caps from 26th to 8th in power play goals for and you've improved the offense by nine goals, vaulting it into the top ten. Throw in a couple of shorthanded goals and ten more even strength goals and you're almost into the top-5. Small improvements in multiple facets of the game should do the trick.
If the goalies hold up their end of the bargain and there are no Green- or Backstrom-esque injuries again, this team looks to be in decent shape for next year. Yes, there are significant roster holes to fill, there is no coach, and the pipeline will not produce another impact NHL talent for a couple of years minimum (unless Grigorenko falls all the way to 11th). But before being great, teams generally have to hit the "good" threshold, and McPhee should be able to do that pretty easily. That won't satisfy me, but it will keep me watching since a "good" team can be a single (albeit major) move away from becoming elite.
Here's what it projects for next season. All figures are rounded. The information after the goals-assists-points totals are Snepsts' closest comparable found and the year of that comparable performance.
Ovechkin: 31-37-68 (Heatley 2009)
Backstrom: 21-49-70 (Juneau 1994)
Laich: 16-24-41 (Bourne 1984)
Johansson: 12-20-33 (Zanussi 1980)
Perreault: 18-20-38 (Lacroix 1997)
Chimera: 12-14-26 (Zamuner 2001)
Hendricks: 6-14-20 (Podein 1999)
Ward: 9-16-25 (Cooke 2008)
Brouwer: 17-18-35 (Lindgren 2000)
Beagle: 3-5-8 (Boll 2011)
Green: 8-19-26 (B. Stuart 2007)
Carlson: 9-27-36 (B. Stuart 2003)
Alzner: 3-10-13 (Doak 1972)
Hamrlik: 4-14-18 (Lumme 2002)
Erskine: 2-6-18 (Huscroft 1997)
Schultz: 3-10-13 (Houda 1990)
Crosby: 51-76-127
Malkin: 36-48-84
Stamkos: 43-49-93
The total of the 10 forwards and six defensemen comes out to 174 goals. That's barely 2 goals a game. Luckily, I think there are some underestimates here:
Green--each "comparable" has a "sim" score, which denotes how close the match is (smaller is better). While most players had a match with a sim score in single digits, Green did not. I think it's fair to think he produces at least a handful more goals than the eight here.
Ovechkin--I'm optimistic. I think he hits 35 regardless of coach, thanks to an improved power play, and with a good coach hits 40. There's another handful or so. Ovechkin was another player who didn't exactly have a close comparable, like Green. Given that coaching likely deflated Ovechkin's numbers, I think the search registered worse comparables than he deserved (which is saying something, considering the comparables include Heatley, Kariya, Robataille, Hawerchuk, Nilsson, and Tkachuk).
Johansson--the kid has shown so much scoring ability already, and he's not even strong.
I suppose I should also mention what I think are overestimates (excluding players in the single digits):
Perreault--he won't shoot over 20% again.
Luckily, that's it.
Add that up and we have 180-185 or so. Short of adding two 30-goal scorers, this picture makes the team's offense next season seem destined to crave mediocrity. I think it's fair to guess this team adds ~30 goals scored from free agency (speaking of raw production, not GVT here: that's three third liners). That brings us up to 215, which would have ranked 15th this season, three fewer than the real Caps scored (that seems better when you consider Semin isn't counted here).
McPhee had better hit a home run with this new coach. If the coach can be worth 30 goals or so, suddenly you're looking at 240 goals and a top-5 offense. It doesn't have to just come at even strength--take the Caps from 26th to 8th in power play goals for and you've improved the offense by nine goals, vaulting it into the top ten. Throw in a couple of shorthanded goals and ten more even strength goals and you're almost into the top-5. Small improvements in multiple facets of the game should do the trick.
If the goalies hold up their end of the bargain and there are no Green- or Backstrom-esque injuries again, this team looks to be in decent shape for next year. Yes, there are significant roster holes to fill, there is no coach, and the pipeline will not produce another impact NHL talent for a couple of years minimum (unless Grigorenko falls all the way to 11th). But before being great, teams generally have to hit the "good" threshold, and McPhee should be able to do that pretty easily. That won't satisfy me, but it will keep me watching since a "good" team can be a single (albeit major) move away from becoming elite.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Stanley Cup Final prediction
New Jersey Devils vs Los Angeles Kings
Possession. The Devils in the playoffs have been great against mediocre possession teams. The Kings have been decent against two great and one mediocre team. With Zajac looking better with each game and Kovalchuk apparently recovered from his injury in the first round, and with Richards and Carter still a little cold possession-wise (as they have been all season), this series could actually be close in this regard.
Brodeur. He's looked solid. I don't buy that he is. However, anything can happen in seven games, and with Quick looking more beatable than he was in the first two rounds, it's conceivable that Brodeur outplays Quick enough for this to be a long series.
Special teams. The Devils' PK had a net goal differential around -1 every eight games during the regular season, which is ridiculous. It's -15 in 18 playoff games. Meanwhile, the Kings PP is only +6. Which dam will break? In the same vein, the Kings PK is even in the playoffs (5 SHGF, 5 PPGA) while the Devils PP is +10. Something will give.
Elias. If he can win his matchup, the Devils have a great chance. I'm not sure who Pete DeBoer wants to match Parise with, but if Elias can win or even just break even against Richards or Kopitar, suddenly an upset doesn't look too unlikely. He hasn't scored much in the playoffs, and Quick is a hard goalie to score on, but you never know.
Prediction: I think the Kings possession game is simply too much. I think Quick has started a bit of a funk (nothing too bad, though) while Brodeur has been hot, so there's an even playing field there, but I think the Devils D will simply be overwhelmed more often than not. Kings in 6.
Possession. The Devils in the playoffs have been great against mediocre possession teams. The Kings have been decent against two great and one mediocre team. With Zajac looking better with each game and Kovalchuk apparently recovered from his injury in the first round, and with Richards and Carter still a little cold possession-wise (as they have been all season), this series could actually be close in this regard.
Brodeur. He's looked solid. I don't buy that he is. However, anything can happen in seven games, and with Quick looking more beatable than he was in the first two rounds, it's conceivable that Brodeur outplays Quick enough for this to be a long series.
Special teams. The Devils' PK had a net goal differential around -1 every eight games during the regular season, which is ridiculous. It's -15 in 18 playoff games. Meanwhile, the Kings PP is only +6. Which dam will break? In the same vein, the Kings PK is even in the playoffs (5 SHGF, 5 PPGA) while the Devils PP is +10. Something will give.
Elias. If he can win his matchup, the Devils have a great chance. I'm not sure who Pete DeBoer wants to match Parise with, but if Elias can win or even just break even against Richards or Kopitar, suddenly an upset doesn't look too unlikely. He hasn't scored much in the playoffs, and Quick is a hard goalie to score on, but you never know.
Prediction: I think the Kings possession game is simply too much. I think Quick has started a bit of a funk (nothing too bad, though) while Brodeur has been hot, so there's an even playing field there, but I think the Devils D will simply be overwhelmed more often than not. Kings in 6.
Friday, May 18, 2012
Offseason choices
The Capitals are probably in their most precarious state as a franchise since...well, it's been awhile, and I may have not even been a fan at the time. The team overall was flat in a Game 7 for the third time (I'm not sure the performances against either Boston or New York in 2009 were ideal, so add two halves and call it one) in five tries, there is no coach after the most recent coach tried to completely overhaul the team's philosophy, the team's prized prospect apparently will stay abroad for at least two more years...I could go on.
Here's the checklist I would make as the team's GM.
Who will be the new coach? There are many possibilities out there. Ideally you find the coach before free agency to try and nab players who will fit his system, but at least one Canadian outlet has reported McPhee may wait until August to name Hunter's successor.
Possession. If you don't find a coach, best bet is to find players who will keep the puck in the offensive zone, regardless of system. Nicklas Backstrom and Joel Ward are two easy examples of players who were able to move the puck up the ice under both Boudreau and Hunter.
As far as UFA names go, the following players scored at a top six rate (top-180 among F, min 40 GP, which was Derek Roy's 1.58) and had a positive on-ice Corsi: Alexander Semin, Zach Parise, Jaromir Jagr, Ray Whitney, Jiri Hudler, Jamie Langenbrunner, Chris Kelly, Lee Stempniak, Steve Sullivan, PA Parenteau, Kyle Wellwood, Petr Sykora. Limit it to top liners (top-90 in points per 60, Ilya Kovalchuk's 2.00) and you have Kelly, Sykora, Wellwood, Parise, Hudler, Parenteau, and Semin.
While that is a fairly long list of names, it'll get shorter since some will re-sign with their current teams over the next six weeks, and so you'll have 30 teams looking at maybe five or six top-six forwards.
A better bet might be looking to add top-end depth via trade but adding real punch to the bottom of the lineup in free agency. That opens up more options--in addition to the aforementioned names, guys like Alexei Ponikarovsky, Scott Gomez (if Montreal buys him out), Brandon Prust, Blair Betts (if he can play and was not merely LTIR'd indefinitely for cap and roster space), Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Winnik, Ruslan Fedotenko, Jay McClement, Marco Sturm, Paul Gaustad, Jochen Hecht, Dustin Penner, Jarret Stoll, Jason Blake, Daymond Langkow, Kristian Huselius, and David Moss pop up after a quick look as guys who can do a decent job keeping the puck on the attack (several of whom are trusted to take heavy defensive zone start ratios as well, like Betts, McClement, and Stoll).
We're up to around one UFA forward per team, and landing even one of these players should add punch to third and (especially) fourth lines that looked helpless at times during the postseason (the fourth line for all but the ends of both series, the third during the Rangers series). I don't know how versatile all of these players are--that's up to management and scouting--but I'm sure there are several fits. There are definitely the components of a top-end checking line that will score about as much as most top lines, and throw in outscoring from Backstrom's line and the fourth line and I think the team is in a pretty good spot.
Go hard after undervalued players. This is related to the previous section, but also encompasses some possibilities of its own. Take Paul Martin. No one criticized his signing last season, but this season he's come under a lot of fire. Like John Carlson, Martin's behindthenet profile is solid, but both he and Zbynek Michalek got sub-.900 goaltending. As far as I know, after playing in New Jersey and then for a defensive-minded Pittsburgh team last season, this season was the most wide-open hockey his team had ever played, and I think shifting back to a more defensive-minded system as well as another year of acclimation will have him due for a rebound next year. Even if Pittsburgh is savvy enough to demand fair value, at the very least it's not above fair value, like we see at the deadline due, to bidding wars.
There are other players that were forced into tougher roles than they're used to playing and saw a drop in production and undeserved criticism as a result: Ales Hemsky (former Edmonton coaches Craig MacTavish and Tom Renney have gotten plenty out of Hemsky, especially MacTavish), Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, and Nikolai Kulemin come to mind quickly.
There are also the risky players coming off major injury. Andy McDonald has one year left on his deal with St. Louis, at just over $4 million in cap hit, and last time he was healthy he was roughly a point-per-game player. Alexander Steen was brilliant for St. Louis this season when he was healthy, but missed half the season due to a concussion (like Backstrom did). UFA defenseman Carlo Colaiacovo played most of the year with Alex Pietrangelo, who put in a Norris-worthy performance this season, but as such his contributions to the pair's effectiveness may be undervalued (or he may be overvalued, too). Simon Gagne is also risky, but a solid two-way player.
Get a coach whose system will fit the players. Please, minimal adjustments needed. No system is inherently wrong, but it sure could be wrong for the personnel you have. I think the puck-moving ability and offensive savvy on the blueline is a real strength, and something integrating that would sure be nice, but if I knew anything about the game I'd be in it.
Don't be afraid to go after young players. I can understand the desire for an established top-six forward after experiments with Tomas Fleischmann, Brendan Morrison, Mathieu Perreault, and Marcus Johansson haven't really panned out (though I maintain if a coach were to lock Perreault into the 2C spot and give him more ice time, especially on the power play, he's put up solid numbers). The team doesn't have a ton of valuable assets at the moment, though, so it's hard to find that guy via trade unless his current team really wants him off its hands (Stastny and Getzlaf, maybe) because the Caps don't have the assets to pony up.
Young players, though, aren't as valuable. We see established players going at the deadline for prospects and developing players every year. In that vein, there are several young centers who might be able to play in a top-six role next year (and if not, they'll be close). Marcus Kruger in Chicago, Andrei Loktionov in Los Angeles, Sam Gagner in Edmonton (he's only turns 23 in August, folks), and Brayden Schenn in Philadelphia are four such names. I'm sure there are more. All of them are currently buried on the depth chart, and it doesn't look like Loktionov and Kruger will be able to get up anytime soon.
If you extend your search for wing depth, Oiler Linus Omark has tweeted that he'd like a chance somewhere else and he and fellow undervalued forward Magnus Paajarvi were solid together in '10-'11.
St. Louis also has plenty of young players, but may not have the money to keep its team together. TJ Oshie, David Perron, and captain David Backes were Ken Hitchcock's go-to defensive line, taking the three top quality of competition ratings and bottom three offensive zone start ratios among Blues forwards, and all outshot and outscored their competition. Oshie and Perron are both restricted free agents and are each due a nice raise from the slightly-over-$2 million they each earned this past season. New ownership may be coming into play here. We'll see, but this is a terrific opportunity to pick up a quality player, especially if the Caps jump early.
I understand this is risky, but sometimes that's what you need to do to be one of the best. Los Angeles had two injury-prone wings they planned to play with Kopitar on the top line, and while Simon Gagne has had more issues, Justin Williams has stayed healthy in the playoffs.
Jeff Carter struggled in Columbus, and the Kings traded for him and slotted him alongside another guy who I think may be a little disappointed in his regular season performance in Mike Richards. Sutter asked those two to play harder minutes to help take the load off of Kopitar, and the ploy worked.
They inserted Slava Voynov to take Jack Johnson's spot, and he was pretty green, like Orlov, but has done very well in a season in which he was supposed to spend in the AHL polishing his defensive game.
They came into the year with two young, cheap netminders, and Jonathan Quick got even better (if he hadn't, Los Angeles probably misses the playoffs). They traded for Dustin Penner and he's returned to his underrated form that he had in Edmonton.
Phoenix risked it with Mike Smith in goal and a second-year D as its 1D plus a collage of vets to round out its blueline, and that team has done well. New York risked it with slotting McDonagh to take Marc Staal's spot, and that's worked out extremely well.
If you could have predicted these players' performances, their salaries would have been much higher. All these teams took risks, and they paid off. While risks may not--the Johnson extension for LA, for example--if McPhee is smart about who he targets, he'll come out ahead frequently enough to build a very good team.
In other words, I want the team to do due diligence and not treat this offseason as especially different. Learn from mistakes in the past and be cognizant of roster weaknesses and age, but don't let, say, the lack of a 2C for three years now magically increase the urgency with which you will pursue it above and beyond what's actually needed (don't overcorrect or panic, like Montreal did with Gomez-for-McDonagh or Columbus with Carter-for-Johnson). McPhee hasn't been prone to overreacting to this point, but who knows, with all the bumps over the past couple of years. I hope he stays in control. That's a plus to waiting--he's obviously invested in the success of the team, and waiting for the necessary emotional detachment is critical.
Explore the trade market for Holtby. Braden Holtby may be the next big thing. I don't know. Seems like everyone (save Rangers and Bruins fans) thinks extremely highly of him (including Henrik Lundqvist). I do know, however, that establishing yourself as an above-average netminder in the league is pretty hard--try it, draw up a list of the top-15--and I do think Holtby could net a pretty nice return in a trade. Neuvirth I think is a decent NHL goalie and Grubauer was great in the minors this season, so the pipeline looks like it can replace Holtby, and there are always underrated veteran backups available in free agency (like Biron, Conklin, and Johnson). I'd jump at a Varlamov-type package (with the first being 2012, preferably).
See if there is a trade market for Ovechkin. I do realize the media fallout could be disastrous, but I do think some teams would offer a substantial amount for Ovechkin (Montreal was the first name that came to mind). There's some evidence that this past season, he was a pretty marginal player at even strength (outscored by checking lines, essentially). I think he'll be better next season, but why take that risk when someone else can for you? I think Howson's desired package for Nash (along the lines of Kreider, Dubinsky, Erixon, and a 1st, if memory serves) proves that some GMs are crazy enough to overrate goal scorers that much, and I think there is real potential here for a ripoff of Carter-Johnson magnitude.
Of course, it's quite possible to avoid this altogether and build a roster that comes pretty close to a championship or even wins one despite Ovechkin's contract--just add him as a healthy scratch to Phoenix and I don't think you've changed anything on a final-four team. You can't afford to overpay in UFA without bargains, though, and the Capitals are running a little short on bargains, which are now concentrated in Carlson-Alzner-Orlov and the goaltending.
Assess whether you can make the playoffs without Semin. I realize he may want to leave, but he was the team's best forward this season who played more than 42 regular season games and without Parise, at least two other top-six forward acquisitions, or a coach who will coax a dominant game out of this roster like Boudreau did from 07-10 and Sutter did this year with LA, it may very well be that the team misses the postseason without his regular season contributions.
Give Perreault a chance. His possession numbers and scoring rates have been solid for three years in a row. I don't think you need to have two high-end centers to ice a championship roster if you have outstanding depth, and given that Perreault has been scoring in the ice time he's been given, give him some more and see if he can build on it. His would-be replacement as a top-six center has not earned that spot any more than he has, whether it be Laich or Johansson.
Keep your excitement down for Marcus Johansson. He had a very, very quiet leap from 27 points (9th on team) to 46 points (tied for third). Sure, that's two years in a row where he's had a very high on-ice shooting percentage, but I think more strength will help him win a lot more puck battles and mitigate the drop in conversion efficiency. But entering the last year of his ELC, it would be nice if he were kept under the radar so that he comes in cheap on his second contract.
Trade Dennis Wideman. People have traded for the rights to guys like Jay Bouwmeester and Dan Hamhuis before. Even if a team gives up a low-round pick, it's better than nothing.
Do your utmost to keep the affiliation with Hershey going. As far as I know, the affiliation was set to expire at the end of this season and has not been renewed. Hershey is a team known for winning, though, and experience with pressure, expectations, playing in scoring roles in the postseason, and long campaigns can't hurt players like Cody Eakin and Stanislav Galiev in their development. They truly have to earn their ice time since the AHL affiliate is by no means the parent NHL club's puppet, and that's also an extra defense against rushing prospects. It's not terrible if the relationship ends, but it sure would be good to maintain a relationship that has worked out very well for both organizations so far.
Tell Alex Ovechkin he needs to learn to play defense. Todd McClellan for precisely this reason I think would be great for coach in Washington--not only do his Sharks dump and chase more than any "skill" team I've ever seen, but he transformed Joe Thornton into a dominant two-way force, and I don't doubt he could do the same to Ovechkin. As it is, it's just an extra hassle for the Capitals' coach to be wary of power-on-power matchups against Ovechkin's line, and without being competent defensively you can't send out your most dangerous offensive-zone weapon for 40 of the 60 minutes a game (when the other team has its top-six forwards on the ice). That's rather inconvenient.
Find a new coach, and make sure he knows what he's doing. If Backstrom hadn't been hurt, I think a top-notch coach could have taken this team to the Stanley Cup Finals. I think the true MVPs of the league are Dan Bylsma, Darryl Sutter, Mike Babcock, and Alain Vigneault, coaches who drastically improved their teams fortunes through a specific forecheck, defensive zone scheme, and zone/line matching. No coach is without his flaws, and so they all represent some risk. I hope the Caps find the coach that best suits the roster as currently constructed and as constructed in the foreseeable future.
Here's the checklist I would make as the team's GM.
Who will be the new coach? There are many possibilities out there. Ideally you find the coach before free agency to try and nab players who will fit his system, but at least one Canadian outlet has reported McPhee may wait until August to name Hunter's successor.
Possession. If you don't find a coach, best bet is to find players who will keep the puck in the offensive zone, regardless of system. Nicklas Backstrom and Joel Ward are two easy examples of players who were able to move the puck up the ice under both Boudreau and Hunter.
As far as UFA names go, the following players scored at a top six rate (top-180 among F, min 40 GP, which was Derek Roy's 1.58) and had a positive on-ice Corsi: Alexander Semin, Zach Parise, Jaromir Jagr, Ray Whitney, Jiri Hudler, Jamie Langenbrunner, Chris Kelly, Lee Stempniak, Steve Sullivan, PA Parenteau, Kyle Wellwood, Petr Sykora. Limit it to top liners (top-90 in points per 60, Ilya Kovalchuk's 2.00) and you have Kelly, Sykora, Wellwood, Parise, Hudler, Parenteau, and Semin.
While that is a fairly long list of names, it'll get shorter since some will re-sign with their current teams over the next six weeks, and so you'll have 30 teams looking at maybe five or six top-six forwards.
A better bet might be looking to add top-end depth via trade but adding real punch to the bottom of the lineup in free agency. That opens up more options--in addition to the aforementioned names, guys like Alexei Ponikarovsky, Scott Gomez (if Montreal buys him out), Brandon Prust, Blair Betts (if he can play and was not merely LTIR'd indefinitely for cap and roster space), Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Winnik, Ruslan Fedotenko, Jay McClement, Marco Sturm, Paul Gaustad, Jochen Hecht, Dustin Penner, Jarret Stoll, Jason Blake, Daymond Langkow, Kristian Huselius, and David Moss pop up after a quick look as guys who can do a decent job keeping the puck on the attack (several of whom are trusted to take heavy defensive zone start ratios as well, like Betts, McClement, and Stoll).
We're up to around one UFA forward per team, and landing even one of these players should add punch to third and (especially) fourth lines that looked helpless at times during the postseason (the fourth line for all but the ends of both series, the third during the Rangers series). I don't know how versatile all of these players are--that's up to management and scouting--but I'm sure there are several fits. There are definitely the components of a top-end checking line that will score about as much as most top lines, and throw in outscoring from Backstrom's line and the fourth line and I think the team is in a pretty good spot.
Go hard after undervalued players. This is related to the previous section, but also encompasses some possibilities of its own. Take Paul Martin. No one criticized his signing last season, but this season he's come under a lot of fire. Like John Carlson, Martin's behindthenet profile is solid, but both he and Zbynek Michalek got sub-.900 goaltending. As far as I know, after playing in New Jersey and then for a defensive-minded Pittsburgh team last season, this season was the most wide-open hockey his team had ever played, and I think shifting back to a more defensive-minded system as well as another year of acclimation will have him due for a rebound next year. Even if Pittsburgh is savvy enough to demand fair value, at the very least it's not above fair value, like we see at the deadline due, to bidding wars.
There are other players that were forced into tougher roles than they're used to playing and saw a drop in production and undeserved criticism as a result: Ales Hemsky (former Edmonton coaches Craig MacTavish and Tom Renney have gotten plenty out of Hemsky, especially MacTavish), Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, and Nikolai Kulemin come to mind quickly.
There are also the risky players coming off major injury. Andy McDonald has one year left on his deal with St. Louis, at just over $4 million in cap hit, and last time he was healthy he was roughly a point-per-game player. Alexander Steen was brilliant for St. Louis this season when he was healthy, but missed half the season due to a concussion (like Backstrom did). UFA defenseman Carlo Colaiacovo played most of the year with Alex Pietrangelo, who put in a Norris-worthy performance this season, but as such his contributions to the pair's effectiveness may be undervalued (or he may be overvalued, too). Simon Gagne is also risky, but a solid two-way player.
Get a coach whose system will fit the players. Please, minimal adjustments needed. No system is inherently wrong, but it sure could be wrong for the personnel you have. I think the puck-moving ability and offensive savvy on the blueline is a real strength, and something integrating that would sure be nice, but if I knew anything about the game I'd be in it.
Don't be afraid to go after young players. I can understand the desire for an established top-six forward after experiments with Tomas Fleischmann, Brendan Morrison, Mathieu Perreault, and Marcus Johansson haven't really panned out (though I maintain if a coach were to lock Perreault into the 2C spot and give him more ice time, especially on the power play, he's put up solid numbers). The team doesn't have a ton of valuable assets at the moment, though, so it's hard to find that guy via trade unless his current team really wants him off its hands (Stastny and Getzlaf, maybe) because the Caps don't have the assets to pony up.
Young players, though, aren't as valuable. We see established players going at the deadline for prospects and developing players every year. In that vein, there are several young centers who might be able to play in a top-six role next year (and if not, they'll be close). Marcus Kruger in Chicago, Andrei Loktionov in Los Angeles, Sam Gagner in Edmonton (he's only turns 23 in August, folks), and Brayden Schenn in Philadelphia are four such names. I'm sure there are more. All of them are currently buried on the depth chart, and it doesn't look like Loktionov and Kruger will be able to get up anytime soon.
If you extend your search for wing depth, Oiler Linus Omark has tweeted that he'd like a chance somewhere else and he and fellow undervalued forward Magnus Paajarvi were solid together in '10-'11.
St. Louis also has plenty of young players, but may not have the money to keep its team together. TJ Oshie, David Perron, and captain David Backes were Ken Hitchcock's go-to defensive line, taking the three top quality of competition ratings and bottom three offensive zone start ratios among Blues forwards, and all outshot and outscored their competition. Oshie and Perron are both restricted free agents and are each due a nice raise from the slightly-over-$2 million they each earned this past season. New ownership may be coming into play here. We'll see, but this is a terrific opportunity to pick up a quality player, especially if the Caps jump early.
I understand this is risky, but sometimes that's what you need to do to be one of the best. Los Angeles had two injury-prone wings they planned to play with Kopitar on the top line, and while Simon Gagne has had more issues, Justin Williams has stayed healthy in the playoffs.
Jeff Carter struggled in Columbus, and the Kings traded for him and slotted him alongside another guy who I think may be a little disappointed in his regular season performance in Mike Richards. Sutter asked those two to play harder minutes to help take the load off of Kopitar, and the ploy worked.
They inserted Slava Voynov to take Jack Johnson's spot, and he was pretty green, like Orlov, but has done very well in a season in which he was supposed to spend in the AHL polishing his defensive game.
They came into the year with two young, cheap netminders, and Jonathan Quick got even better (if he hadn't, Los Angeles probably misses the playoffs). They traded for Dustin Penner and he's returned to his underrated form that he had in Edmonton.
Phoenix risked it with Mike Smith in goal and a second-year D as its 1D plus a collage of vets to round out its blueline, and that team has done well. New York risked it with slotting McDonagh to take Marc Staal's spot, and that's worked out extremely well.
If you could have predicted these players' performances, their salaries would have been much higher. All these teams took risks, and they paid off. While risks may not--the Johnson extension for LA, for example--if McPhee is smart about who he targets, he'll come out ahead frequently enough to build a very good team.
In other words, I want the team to do due diligence and not treat this offseason as especially different. Learn from mistakes in the past and be cognizant of roster weaknesses and age, but don't let, say, the lack of a 2C for three years now magically increase the urgency with which you will pursue it above and beyond what's actually needed (don't overcorrect or panic, like Montreal did with Gomez-for-McDonagh or Columbus with Carter-for-Johnson). McPhee hasn't been prone to overreacting to this point, but who knows, with all the bumps over the past couple of years. I hope he stays in control. That's a plus to waiting--he's obviously invested in the success of the team, and waiting for the necessary emotional detachment is critical.
Explore the trade market for Holtby. Braden Holtby may be the next big thing. I don't know. Seems like everyone (save Rangers and Bruins fans) thinks extremely highly of him (including Henrik Lundqvist). I do know, however, that establishing yourself as an above-average netminder in the league is pretty hard--try it, draw up a list of the top-15--and I do think Holtby could net a pretty nice return in a trade. Neuvirth I think is a decent NHL goalie and Grubauer was great in the minors this season, so the pipeline looks like it can replace Holtby, and there are always underrated veteran backups available in free agency (like Biron, Conklin, and Johnson). I'd jump at a Varlamov-type package (with the first being 2012, preferably).
See if there is a trade market for Ovechkin. I do realize the media fallout could be disastrous, but I do think some teams would offer a substantial amount for Ovechkin (Montreal was the first name that came to mind). There's some evidence that this past season, he was a pretty marginal player at even strength (outscored by checking lines, essentially). I think he'll be better next season, but why take that risk when someone else can for you? I think Howson's desired package for Nash (along the lines of Kreider, Dubinsky, Erixon, and a 1st, if memory serves) proves that some GMs are crazy enough to overrate goal scorers that much, and I think there is real potential here for a ripoff of Carter-Johnson magnitude.
Of course, it's quite possible to avoid this altogether and build a roster that comes pretty close to a championship or even wins one despite Ovechkin's contract--just add him as a healthy scratch to Phoenix and I don't think you've changed anything on a final-four team. You can't afford to overpay in UFA without bargains, though, and the Capitals are running a little short on bargains, which are now concentrated in Carlson-Alzner-Orlov and the goaltending.
Assess whether you can make the playoffs without Semin. I realize he may want to leave, but he was the team's best forward this season who played more than 42 regular season games and without Parise, at least two other top-six forward acquisitions, or a coach who will coax a dominant game out of this roster like Boudreau did from 07-10 and Sutter did this year with LA, it may very well be that the team misses the postseason without his regular season contributions.
Give Perreault a chance. His possession numbers and scoring rates have been solid for three years in a row. I don't think you need to have two high-end centers to ice a championship roster if you have outstanding depth, and given that Perreault has been scoring in the ice time he's been given, give him some more and see if he can build on it. His would-be replacement as a top-six center has not earned that spot any more than he has, whether it be Laich or Johansson.
Keep your excitement down for Marcus Johansson. He had a very, very quiet leap from 27 points (9th on team) to 46 points (tied for third). Sure, that's two years in a row where he's had a very high on-ice shooting percentage, but I think more strength will help him win a lot more puck battles and mitigate the drop in conversion efficiency. But entering the last year of his ELC, it would be nice if he were kept under the radar so that he comes in cheap on his second contract.
Trade Dennis Wideman. People have traded for the rights to guys like Jay Bouwmeester and Dan Hamhuis before. Even if a team gives up a low-round pick, it's better than nothing.
Do your utmost to keep the affiliation with Hershey going. As far as I know, the affiliation was set to expire at the end of this season and has not been renewed. Hershey is a team known for winning, though, and experience with pressure, expectations, playing in scoring roles in the postseason, and long campaigns can't hurt players like Cody Eakin and Stanislav Galiev in their development. They truly have to earn their ice time since the AHL affiliate is by no means the parent NHL club's puppet, and that's also an extra defense against rushing prospects. It's not terrible if the relationship ends, but it sure would be good to maintain a relationship that has worked out very well for both organizations so far.
Tell Alex Ovechkin he needs to learn to play defense. Todd McClellan for precisely this reason I think would be great for coach in Washington--not only do his Sharks dump and chase more than any "skill" team I've ever seen, but he transformed Joe Thornton into a dominant two-way force, and I don't doubt he could do the same to Ovechkin. As it is, it's just an extra hassle for the Capitals' coach to be wary of power-on-power matchups against Ovechkin's line, and without being competent defensively you can't send out your most dangerous offensive-zone weapon for 40 of the 60 minutes a game (when the other team has its top-six forwards on the ice). That's rather inconvenient.
Find a new coach, and make sure he knows what he's doing. If Backstrom hadn't been hurt, I think a top-notch coach could have taken this team to the Stanley Cup Finals. I think the true MVPs of the league are Dan Bylsma, Darryl Sutter, Mike Babcock, and Alain Vigneault, coaches who drastically improved their teams fortunes through a specific forecheck, defensive zone scheme, and zone/line matching. No coach is without his flaws, and so they all represent some risk. I hope the Caps find the coach that best suits the roster as currently constructed and as constructed in the foreseeable future.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Conference Finals Predictions
I wrote this before the conference finals series started, but had some mobile posting issues, so here you go, a little late.
Rangers vs Devils
Can Brodeur keep this up? I reckon he's roughly equivalent to Holtby. Obviously, they have different styles, but in a vacuum this veteran ain't what he used to be. He's been decent and was good against Philly. He'll need to repeat that.
Power on power. Tortorella liked Richards, Hagelin, and Gaborik against Ovechkin, and I'm sure DeBoer is willing to oblige with Zajac, Kovalchuk, and Parise. Normally I'd say that's an easy win for New Jersey, but the Rangers' top line really came on strong late in this last series. If they win this matchup, I think they take the series.
Defensive depth. New York is deeper but has played much more hockey. Sure, Tortorella has a tough training camp, but early on the Devils should still be able to take advantage and will need to since they're not super physical, so any advantage there will evaporate.
Prediction: I think the Devils' top six will win their matchups possession-wise fairly comfortably (don't sleep on Elias, he's great) and combine with the significant special teams edge to Newark and I like New Jersey in six.
Coyotes vs Kings
Goaltending. Assuming Quick is solid, only a Halak-like performance will save Phoenix.
Carter. He hasn't been great thus far, but if he gets going...
Ekman-Larsson. He is going to have to play out of his mind against Kopitar. If he wins that matchup in goals, Phoenix's depth may just be able to hold out--Whitney, Vrbata, and Hanzal ain't no slouches.
Prediction: the biggest question is how many games the Kings will lose en route to a cup, I think. Kings in five.
Rangers vs Devils
Can Brodeur keep this up? I reckon he's roughly equivalent to Holtby. Obviously, they have different styles, but in a vacuum this veteran ain't what he used to be. He's been decent and was good against Philly. He'll need to repeat that.
Power on power. Tortorella liked Richards, Hagelin, and Gaborik against Ovechkin, and I'm sure DeBoer is willing to oblige with Zajac, Kovalchuk, and Parise. Normally I'd say that's an easy win for New Jersey, but the Rangers' top line really came on strong late in this last series. If they win this matchup, I think they take the series.
Defensive depth. New York is deeper but has played much more hockey. Sure, Tortorella has a tough training camp, but early on the Devils should still be able to take advantage and will need to since they're not super physical, so any advantage there will evaporate.
Prediction: I think the Devils' top six will win their matchups possession-wise fairly comfortably (don't sleep on Elias, he's great) and combine with the significant special teams edge to Newark and I like New Jersey in six.
Coyotes vs Kings
Goaltending. Assuming Quick is solid, only a Halak-like performance will save Phoenix.
Carter. He hasn't been great thus far, but if he gets going...
Ekman-Larsson. He is going to have to play out of his mind against Kopitar. If he wins that matchup in goals, Phoenix's depth may just be able to hold out--Whitney, Vrbata, and Hanzal ain't no slouches.
Prediction: the biggest question is how many games the Kings will lose en route to a cup, I think. Kings in five.
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