Zone Entries: Caps 5 @ Flyers 2

Direct link. Some observations:

Mike Green and Joel Ward I think have been noticeably good each and every game thus far.

Matt Hendricks: +13 Corsi. Mathieu Perreault: +13. Jeff Halpern: +11. Yeah, they had a good night.

Jason Chimera: -8. Brooks Laich: -13. Joel Ward: -4. Could be better, but that's only because my expectations are so high to begin with. Jeff Schultz was a team-worst -14 and Dennis Wideman was a -9. I'm a little confused on Schultz. My rule of thumb is the less you notice him, the better, and I wasn't aware he was playing until he handled the puck in the second. I think those five got caught a few times getting shelled, but as far as I could tell they kept the shots to the outside, so all is good.

Philadelphia is probably one of the best possession teams in the league (they have been since 08-09 and I don't think that will have changed, even with losing Carter and Richards). The Capitals led for over 40 minutes of the game, including by two or more for most of the third, and were only -2 in Corsi. Nice.

Ovechkin was only involved in five entries all game: twice making a pass and thrice carrying the puck into the zone. You could say Timonen, Meszaros, and company did a good job not even letting the rush get started.

Say what you want about Sean Couturier, but a guy who, after being drafted, can immediately step into the lineup of one of the NHL's top-ten teams and be one of the most trusted defensive forwards despite playing behind several more proven players (and one who I think will win the Selke in short order in Claude Giroux) is pretty rare. He deserved to go top-3. I can see Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson above him, but not the others.

I counted 172 entries, with the Caps getting 84, 49%. There was a noticeable lull for the second half of the second and the Caps more or less going into a shell for the final half of the third, 24 of 78 from 12 minutes left in the second to the end of the game at full and even strength. At 5v5, the Caps got, per my quick count, a pretty unimpressive 57 of 136, however (all those power plays boosted the totals). That's only 42%. Even with a lead, I'd like to see closer to 46 or 47 (then again, the difference is only a handful of entries going the other way).

I hope Troy Brouwer isn't turning into Eric Fehr (promising career but a shoulder injury or two sets back his development quite a bit).

Marcus Johansson outmuscled someone along the boards in the third (I want to say it was Jakub Voracek). That would not have happened last season. He still got beat a few times along the boards, but he's noticeably stronger on the puck and along the boards.

Tomas Vokoun, eh? When was the last time he had a four goal lead to defend? When was the last time his team was 6-0?

Preview: Conference Semifinals

Same deal as last time. You can check out my previews for the first round: Caps-Rangers, East, West, Corsi.



Blind Corsi: Lightning in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7.

I'll have more on the Capitals and Lightning in a later post.

Bruins-Flyers is an interesting series. Both teams are deep up front, but the Flyers have more top-end talent. The Bruins are thin on the blueline, and while the Flyers are deeper, without Pronger, that's not exactly saying much. Boston has the best goaltending tandem in the NHL, though. While neither Bs special teams unit stands out, the Flyers' PP is pretty bad (so you now know why they brought back Pronger in such a rush), but their PK, first round lack of efficiency notwithstanding, is excellent. The Flyers will have to win this series at even strength, and given how good they were in round 1, I think that's how it'll go. The Flyers will find some average goaltending from either Boucher or Bobrovsky, and their superior forward corps should beat Boston. It won't be easy, especially with great two-way players like Bergeron, Chara, and the certain Vezina winner Thomas defending the other net, but Flyers in 6.

Vancouver-Nashville may be lopsided. If Nashville is to be competitive, Pekka Rinne needs to play like a Vezina finalist, Roberto Luongo must not, and Nashville's special teams must be solid. The Predators also need to show good discipline so as to avoid Vancouver's power play. I'm confident Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, along with David Legwand, can stop the Sedins, but I'm afraid Barry Trotz will run into the same issues as Joel Quenneville--matchups in Vancouver. Quenneville was forced to separate Keith and Seabrook--having one of his studs against Sedin-Sedin/Kesler is better than none, and in Vancouver it was "none" more often than not--and while Jonathan Blum has progressed into a solid defenseman, Cody Franson and Shane O'Brien are less reliable, and Alain Vigneault will, no doubt, be looking to exploit that matchup. Asking for Rinne > Luongo, a special teams hot streak, Franson and SOB playing the best series of their careers, and Mike Fisher to best Ryan Kesler is an awful lot. The Predators are tough, resilient, deep, and balanced, but not as good as Vancouver. Canucks in 6.

San Jose-Detroit should be an excellent series. I'm looking for plenty of scoring, lots of skill, lots of speed, great puck possession, you name it. It's Vancouver-Chicago minus a bit of the history and minus the goaltending. The Sharks didn't drive Corsi very well against Los Angeles, but dominated scoring chances. Meanwhile, Detroit ran Phoenix into the ground (except with Phoenix on the power play), and that was without Henrik Zetterberg in the lineup. Johan Franzen should be ready to go for Detroit, but with without a game-changing Zetterberg in the lineup, I can't see Detroit topping the NHL's best team since the turn of the calendar, especially without home ice. Sharks in 7.

Playoff Previews: Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Below you can see each team's Fenwick% on the season, since Feb 1, and since March 1, plus their 5-on-5 save percentage rank, 5-on-4 shots for/60 rank, and 4-on-5 shots against/60 rank. The shots for and against on special teams are pretty tightly clustered, except San Jose's power play, which is far and away the best.



You can see that 6 of our 8 teams have been stinkin' it up as of late, with only the Caps and Sabres exceptions.

I wrote about Caps-Rangers before. Still going with Caps in 5 (crosses fingers momentum exists).

Flyers-Sabres will be very interesting. Since the Sabres added Boyes, they've been one of the best teams in the league, if not the best outright. Between outstanding possession numbers, a very good power play, and above-average goalie Ryan Miller, the Sabres look poised for an upset. Luckily, the Flyers are still very deep and boast a top PK and decent goaltending.

The X-factor in that series will be Chris Pronger's health (broken hand). Look at how the Flyers tumbled without Pronger in the lineup. If he returns, that series will be very competitive. If not, well...I have half a mind of switching to Sabres in 5, but I won't. Sabres in 6.

Bruins-Habs looks like it'll be competitive all the way. In addition to all the history and bad blood, both teams are similarly talented. Boston clearly has an advantage in net (with a better, more rested starter), but up front and on the blueline, you could make a case Montreal has been better. Their special teams are better, but they lose in possession and in net, though not by much in either case. I'll revise my prediction here. With home ice advantage, Bruins in 7.

Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay is intriguing because the rosters suggest a completely different storyline from the underlying numbers. Conventional wisdom suggests Pittsburgh will roll over to the sheer talent Tampa has--Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, Vinny Lecavalier, Simon Gagne, etc. The possession metrics suggest Pittsburgh is playing much, much better hockey, though. Tampa will really need their PP to click, and against Pittsburgh's elite PK, I'm not sure that'll happen. I'm switching here, too. It'll take a lot of OTs to replace those shootouts, but Penguins in 5.

Recap: Flyers 5, Capitals 4 (SO)

I really don't know what to make of this one. I thought the Capitals played a good first and pretty poorly thereafter, but the scoring chances show that aside from the 2nd they outchanced the Flyers 19-6.

Good games from Johansson, Fleischmann, Fehr, and Chimera tonight, I thought. Johansson was stronger on the puck than I've ever seen before and created his own shots, winning board battles. Fleischmann looked much better at wing, as he had a lesser defensive responsibility and good lurk for good shots. He got them, too, hitting three posts or so. Fehr looked good for most of the game, driving to the net hard and picking up the game-tying goal too. Chimera was just flying, as the Chimera-Johansson-Bradley line looked good.

Still, I don't think the Capitals deserved the point they got, let alone two. Bad refereeing or not, bad luck hitting the posts or not, there's no excuse to take so many minor penalties, even if the other team took almost as many. By my count it was 10. That's approaching a period's worth of play solely on the PK. That's ridiculous. If the Capitals can't fix discipline issues they'll be screwed come the playoffs, as a hot goalie + good special teams a la Montreal will beat them once again.

The Flyers didn't deserve to win, but neither did the Caps. Whatever, might as well split the points.

Man of the match: Let's give it to Marcus Johansson, though no one from either side stood out all that much, really. Green was fantastic on the penalty kill, and Richards was pretty good too. Pronger made one mistake (Johansson goal), but otherwise was solid.

Preview: Flyers @ Capitals

Philadelphia Flyers @ Washington Capitals

Washington: 9-4-0, 18 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 8-9-17 in 13 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries/illnesses: D Tom Poti, C Marcus Johansson, G Semyon Varlamov
Probable starting goalie: Michal Neuvirth (8-3-0, 2.41, .914, 1 SO)
Player to watch: W Mike Knuble


Philadelphia: 9-4-1, 19 points
Leading scorer: Claude Giroux, 7-7-14 in 14 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.6%
Notable injuries/illnesses: Claude Giroux was hit in the ankle with a shot late Saturday night
Probable starting goalie: Sergei Bobrovsky (8-2-0, 2.11, .927)
Player to watch: G Sergei Brobovsky

The Capitals will be hosting a Flyers team playing the second of a back-to-back, having come off a hard-fought game with Scott Gordon's Islanders. Prior to that game, all was well in Philly, with the team riding a five game winning streak. The move to put Mike Richards as a pure defensive player, regardless of whether it was well executed or not, has correlated well with the Flyers' recent success, a six game winning streak, after an inconsistent start. Sergei Bobrovsky has taken the reins in goal and played pretty well, and with the depth up front and on the blueline that Philly boasts, they'll be able to play a tough, disciplined game.

1) Neuvirth vs Bobrovsky? Michal Neuvirth and Bobrovsky are the leading rookie goalies this year, and have put up similar "boxcar" numbers so far this season. Neuvirth is probably the better goalie, but he needs to make sure that it shows this time around.

2) Does Alex Ovechkin wake up? While Ovechkin has been putting up points recently, his even strength play hasn't been too great. Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, two of the top-20 defensemen in the world, and shutdown center Mike Richards will try and make that trend continue. No matter how good those two are, though, if Ovechkin and Backstrom lock in, they are nearly impossible to stop.

3) Can Semin spark the Caps? Since the start of the season, Alexander Semin has sparked every line he has played on. If he plays on the top line, the Caps risk that entire line and Semin's valuable secondary goal scoring being shut down. If he plays on the second line, the Caps risk Philly's second all-world pairing shutting down that line. Semin will have to have his best game of the season, unless...

4) Power versus power, depth versus depth. I'd bet the offensive power at the top of the Capitals' lineup isn't too effective against the defensive fortitude at the top of the Flyers' lineup, and vice versa. If the Caps' depth can come through and play a strong game--not exactly what has been happening as of late, though Fehr-Chimera-Gordon were brilliant against Boston--and outplay the Flyers' very, very impressive depth, it gives DC the edge it likely needs to win.

5) Special teams. The Caps and Flyers look like they'll play to a standstill at even strength. The Caps' power play will have a tough time with the Flyers' 6th-ranked penalty kill, and the Flyers' power play should have trouble with the Caps' PK as well. I have a feeling that the unit that breaks through first will carry its team to victory.

Well, either that or Sergei Bobrovsky learns what it feels like to face a team that actually has semi-decent shooters and can dominate like few other teams, and has a guy with a knack for making a goalie's life difficult--especially when the goalie is a rookie--and for scoring goals on Pennsylvania-based teams. Capitals 4, Flyers 3 (OT).