Sorry Bruins fans, I think Vancouver is going to steamroll your team. Boston lacks a huge advantage in net against exactly two teams, and they're playing the one of those two that made the playoffs (the other I think is Anaheim, with Swiss Jonas Hiller). Meanwhile, Alain Vigneault's skaters have a ginormous advantage over Claude Julien's skaters. Boston will be icing the best defenseman in Chara and maybe the best forward in Bergeron, but Vancouver is icing the next best three or four at each position after that. The Sedins are clicking, Kesler has been great, and the Canucks third line is forechecking extremely well. The Sharks had the depth to get good players out against both the Sedins and Kesler, but Boston only has enough personnel to shut down one of the two. The other should be rolling. And we haven't even considered Malhotra yet, who, with what's looking like a return for the Finals, will take the defensive burden off off Kesler and Laperierre. Blind Corsi says Canucks in 5, and I say Canucks in 5, too.
Showing posts with label Boston Bruins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Bruins. Show all posts
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Canucks vs Bruins Preview
Sorry Bruins fans, I think Vancouver is going to steamroll your team. Boston lacks a huge advantage in net against exactly two teams, and they're playing the one of those two that made the playoffs (the other I think is Anaheim, with Swiss Jonas Hiller). Meanwhile, Alain Vigneault's skaters have a ginormous advantage over Claude Julien's skaters. Boston will be icing the best defenseman in Chara and maybe the best forward in Bergeron, but Vancouver is icing the next best three or four at each position after that. The Sedins are clicking, Kesler has been great, and the Canucks third line is forechecking extremely well. The Sharks had the depth to get good players out against both the Sedins and Kesler, but Boston only has enough personnel to shut down one of the two. The other should be rolling. And we haven't even considered Malhotra yet, who, with what's looking like a return for the Finals, will take the defensive burden off off Kesler and Laperierre. Blind Corsi says Canucks in 5, and I say Canucks in 5, too.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Conference Finals Preview
I think the Eastern Conference Finals will be a snoozer, but the Western Conference Finals should, again, be excellent hockey, and with all the games in the Pacific time zone the games will be convenient for me to watch.
Hell yes.
Blind Corsi: Lightning in 7, Canucks in 7. I would've picked Lightning in 6, but this classifies as one of those "exceptional cases" that I wrote could sway the Corsi-based prediction. Boston's goaltending is vastly superior to Tampa Bay's. San Jose's power play is also an "exceptional case" but that advantage isn't enough for blind Corsi.
Tampa Bay just feels like a team of destiny, but the Bruins feel to me like the playground bully. While losing Patrice Bergeron hurts a lot, Boston has been getting solid play up and down their lineup and completely rolled over a solid Philadelphia team. Obviously, part of that is sub-par goaltending in the Flyers' net and frequent brain cramps in the defensive zone, but Boston deserves plenty of credit for not going into a shell to try and mitigate the talent disparity (as I would've instructed them to do, if I were Claude Julien), and staying aggressive. They are much more disciplined in their attack than Washington. Like the 07-08 Flyers and 08-09 Blackhawks, I think the Conference Finals is when the fairytale comes to an end. Tampa will put up a fight, but they've been riding hot goaltending, an insanely hot PK, a clicking PP, and insane shooting when trailing thus far. It can't last. Bruins in 7.
There's not much more to Vancouver-San Jose than what I wrote above. Both teams knocked off recent champions in this postseason, both teams are great at possession (I think San Jose is slightly better), both teams have gotten solid goaltending for the most part, both teams have a great power play and not-terrible-but-not-top-notch penalty killing. Both have questionable psyches--both can't "choke" here, unfortunately for the mainstream media and haters. I think these are two pretty much even teams. Ryane Clowe's return coupled with Joe Thornton's complete pwnage of Datsyuk and Zetterberg--and, in fact, the entire Sharks team ramping up their game to significantly outclass that veteran class-of-the-league organization (admittedly in one game, though the only do-or-die one)--makes me think Jumbo Joe is on a mission. He'll control Kesler or the Sedins, and Pavelski should be able to do a decent job against the other, which means that Logan Couture, Dany Heatley, and Clowe can run roughshod over Vancouver. At least, enough to sway the pendulum (plus, Imma sticking with my bracket picks). Sharks in 7.
By the way, here's a recap of my predictions and blind Corsi predictions thus far. I like to use "games off," to give credit for simply picking the wrong team in seven games, for example.
The idea is pretty simple. The range of possible outcomes exists on a spectrum:
[Away] in 4<-->[Away] in 5<-->[Away] in 6<-->[Away] in 7<-->[Home] in 7<-->[Home] in 6<-->[Home] in 5<-->[Home] in 4
The games off score is how many of those double-arrows you have to cross to get form the prediction to the actual result. For example, picking the wrong team in Game 7 is one game off. The max games off score is 7 (which I came close to in both Eastern Conference Semifinal series).
Me: Caps in 5, Sabres in 6, Bruins in 7, Penguins in 5, Canucks in 7, Sharks in 4, Red Wings in 5, Predators in 6, Caps in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7.
Total games off: 18
Blind Corsi: Caps in 6, Flyers in 7, Habs in 6, Pens in 6, Canucks in 7, Sharks in 6, Red Wings in 5, Predators in 6; Bolts in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7. Total games off: 14
Hell yes.
Blind Corsi: Lightning in 7, Canucks in 7. I would've picked Lightning in 6, but this classifies as one of those "exceptional cases" that I wrote could sway the Corsi-based prediction. Boston's goaltending is vastly superior to Tampa Bay's. San Jose's power play is also an "exceptional case" but that advantage isn't enough for blind Corsi.
Tampa Bay just feels like a team of destiny, but the Bruins feel to me like the playground bully. While losing Patrice Bergeron hurts a lot, Boston has been getting solid play up and down their lineup and completely rolled over a solid Philadelphia team. Obviously, part of that is sub-par goaltending in the Flyers' net and frequent brain cramps in the defensive zone, but Boston deserves plenty of credit for not going into a shell to try and mitigate the talent disparity (as I would've instructed them to do, if I were Claude Julien), and staying aggressive. They are much more disciplined in their attack than Washington. Like the 07-08 Flyers and 08-09 Blackhawks, I think the Conference Finals is when the fairytale comes to an end. Tampa will put up a fight, but they've been riding hot goaltending, an insanely hot PK, a clicking PP, and insane shooting when trailing thus far. It can't last. Bruins in 7.
There's not much more to Vancouver-San Jose than what I wrote above. Both teams knocked off recent champions in this postseason, both teams are great at possession (I think San Jose is slightly better), both teams have gotten solid goaltending for the most part, both teams have a great power play and not-terrible-but-not-top-notch penalty killing. Both have questionable psyches--both can't "choke" here, unfortunately for the mainstream media and haters. I think these are two pretty much even teams. Ryane Clowe's return coupled with Joe Thornton's complete pwnage of Datsyuk and Zetterberg--and, in fact, the entire Sharks team ramping up their game to significantly outclass that veteran class-of-the-league organization (admittedly in one game, though the only do-or-die one)--makes me think Jumbo Joe is on a mission. He'll control Kesler or the Sedins, and Pavelski should be able to do a decent job against the other, which means that Logan Couture, Dany Heatley, and Clowe can run roughshod over Vancouver. At least, enough to sway the pendulum (plus, Imma sticking with my bracket picks). Sharks in 7.
By the way, here's a recap of my predictions and blind Corsi predictions thus far. I like to use "games off," to give credit for simply picking the wrong team in seven games, for example.
The idea is pretty simple. The range of possible outcomes exists on a spectrum:
[Away] in 4<-->[Away] in 5<-->[Away] in 6<-->[Away] in 7<-->[Home] in 7<-->[Home] in 6<-->[Home] in 5<-->[Home] in 4
The games off score is how many of those double-arrows you have to cross to get form the prediction to the actual result. For example, picking the wrong team in Game 7 is one game off. The max games off score is 7 (which I came close to in both Eastern Conference Semifinal series).
Me: Caps in 5, Sabres in 6, Bruins in 7, Penguins in 5, Canucks in 7, Sharks in 4, Red Wings in 5, Predators in 6, Caps in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7.
Total games off: 18
Blind Corsi: Caps in 6, Flyers in 7, Habs in 6, Pens in 6, Canucks in 7, Sharks in 6, Red Wings in 5, Predators in 6; Bolts in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7. Total games off: 14
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Preview: Conference Semifinals
Same deal as last time. You can check out my previews for the first round: Caps-Rangers, East, West, Corsi.
Blind Corsi: Lightning in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7.
I'll have more on the Capitals and Lightning in a later post.
Bruins-Flyers is an interesting series. Both teams are deep up front, but the Flyers have more top-end talent. The Bruins are thin on the blueline, and while the Flyers are deeper, without Pronger, that's not exactly saying much. Boston has the best goaltending tandem in the NHL, though. While neither Bs special teams unit stands out, the Flyers' PP is pretty bad (so you now know why they brought back Pronger in such a rush), but their PK, first round lack of efficiency notwithstanding, is excellent. The Flyers will have to win this series at even strength, and given how good they were in round 1, I think that's how it'll go. The Flyers will find some average goaltending from either Boucher or Bobrovsky, and their superior forward corps should beat Boston. It won't be easy, especially with great two-way players like Bergeron, Chara, and the certain Vezina winner Thomas defending the other net, but Flyers in 6.
Vancouver-Nashville may be lopsided. If Nashville is to be competitive, Pekka Rinne needs to play like a Vezina finalist, Roberto Luongo must not, and Nashville's special teams must be solid. The Predators also need to show good discipline so as to avoid Vancouver's power play. I'm confident Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, along with David Legwand, can stop the Sedins, but I'm afraid Barry Trotz will run into the same issues as Joel Quenneville--matchups in Vancouver. Quenneville was forced to separate Keith and Seabrook--having one of his studs against Sedin-Sedin/Kesler is better than none, and in Vancouver it was "none" more often than not--and while Jonathan Blum has progressed into a solid defenseman, Cody Franson and Shane O'Brien are less reliable, and Alain Vigneault will, no doubt, be looking to exploit that matchup. Asking for Rinne > Luongo, a special teams hot streak, Franson and SOB playing the best series of their careers, and Mike Fisher to best Ryan Kesler is an awful lot. The Predators are tough, resilient, deep, and balanced, but not as good as Vancouver. Canucks in 6.
San Jose-Detroit should be an excellent series. I'm looking for plenty of scoring, lots of skill, lots of speed, great puck possession, you name it. It's Vancouver-Chicago minus a bit of the history and minus the goaltending. The Sharks didn't drive Corsi very well against Los Angeles, but dominated scoring chances. Meanwhile, Detroit ran Phoenix into the ground (except with Phoenix on the power play), and that was without Henrik Zetterberg in the lineup. Johan Franzen should be ready to go for Detroit, butwith without a game-changing Zetterberg in the lineup, I can't see Detroit topping the NHL's best team since the turn of the calendar, especially without home ice. Sharks in 7.
Blind Corsi: Lightning in 6, Flyers in 6, Canucks in 6, Sharks in 7.
I'll have more on the Capitals and Lightning in a later post.
Bruins-Flyers is an interesting series. Both teams are deep up front, but the Flyers have more top-end talent. The Bruins are thin on the blueline, and while the Flyers are deeper, without Pronger, that's not exactly saying much. Boston has the best goaltending tandem in the NHL, though. While neither Bs special teams unit stands out, the Flyers' PP is pretty bad (so you now know why they brought back Pronger in such a rush), but their PK, first round lack of efficiency notwithstanding, is excellent. The Flyers will have to win this series at even strength, and given how good they were in round 1, I think that's how it'll go. The Flyers will find some average goaltending from either Boucher or Bobrovsky, and their superior forward corps should beat Boston. It won't be easy, especially with great two-way players like Bergeron, Chara, and the certain Vezina winner Thomas defending the other net, but Flyers in 6.
Vancouver-Nashville may be lopsided. If Nashville is to be competitive, Pekka Rinne needs to play like a Vezina finalist, Roberto Luongo must not, and Nashville's special teams must be solid. The Predators also need to show good discipline so as to avoid Vancouver's power play. I'm confident Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, along with David Legwand, can stop the Sedins, but I'm afraid Barry Trotz will run into the same issues as Joel Quenneville--matchups in Vancouver. Quenneville was forced to separate Keith and Seabrook--having one of his studs against Sedin-Sedin/Kesler is better than none, and in Vancouver it was "none" more often than not--and while Jonathan Blum has progressed into a solid defenseman, Cody Franson and Shane O'Brien are less reliable, and Alain Vigneault will, no doubt, be looking to exploit that matchup. Asking for Rinne > Luongo, a special teams hot streak, Franson and SOB playing the best series of their careers, and Mike Fisher to best Ryan Kesler is an awful lot. The Predators are tough, resilient, deep, and balanced, but not as good as Vancouver. Canucks in 6.
San Jose-Detroit should be an excellent series. I'm looking for plenty of scoring, lots of skill, lots of speed, great puck possession, you name it. It's Vancouver-Chicago minus a bit of the history and minus the goaltending. The Sharks didn't drive Corsi very well against Los Angeles, but dominated scoring chances. Meanwhile, Detroit ran Phoenix into the ground (except with Phoenix on the power play), and that was without Henrik Zetterberg in the lineup. Johan Franzen should be ready to go for Detroit, but
Monday, April 11, 2011
Playoff Previews: Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Below you can see each team's Fenwick% on the season, since Feb 1, and since March 1, plus their 5-on-5 save percentage rank, 5-on-4 shots for/60 rank, and 4-on-5 shots against/60 rank. The shots for and against on special teams are pretty tightly clustered, except San Jose's power play, which is far and away the best.
You can see that 6 of our 8 teams have been stinkin' it up as of late, with only the Caps and Sabres exceptions.
I wrote about Caps-Rangers before. Still going with Caps in 5 (crosses fingers momentum exists).
Flyers-Sabres will be very interesting. Since the Sabres added Boyes, they've been one of the best teams in the league, if not the best outright. Between outstanding possession numbers, a very good power play, and above-average goalie Ryan Miller, the Sabres look poised for an upset. Luckily, the Flyers are still very deep and boast a top PK and decent goaltending.
The X-factor in that series will be Chris Pronger's health (broken hand). Look at how the Flyers tumbled without Pronger in the lineup. If he returns, that series will be very competitive. If not, well...I have half a mind of switching to Sabres in 5, but I won't. Sabres in 6.
Bruins-Habs looks like it'll be competitive all the way. In addition to all the history and bad blood, both teams are similarly talented. Boston clearly has an advantage in net (with a better, more rested starter), but up front and on the blueline, you could make a case Montreal has been better. Their special teams are better, but they lose in possession and in net, though not by much in either case. I'll revise my prediction here. With home ice advantage, Bruins in 7.
Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay is intriguing because the rosters suggest a completely different storyline from the underlying numbers. Conventional wisdom suggests Pittsburgh will roll over to the sheer talent Tampa has--Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, Vinny Lecavalier, Simon Gagne, etc. The possession metrics suggest Pittsburgh is playing much, much better hockey, though. Tampa will really need their PP to click, and against Pittsburgh's elite PK, I'm not sure that'll happen. I'm switching here, too. It'll take a lot of OTs to replace those shootouts, but Penguins in 5.
You can see that 6 of our 8 teams have been stinkin' it up as of late, with only the Caps and Sabres exceptions.
I wrote about Caps-Rangers before. Still going with Caps in 5 (crosses fingers momentum exists).
Flyers-Sabres will be very interesting. Since the Sabres added Boyes, they've been one of the best teams in the league, if not the best outright. Between outstanding possession numbers, a very good power play, and above-average goalie Ryan Miller, the Sabres look poised for an upset. Luckily, the Flyers are still very deep and boast a top PK and decent goaltending.
The X-factor in that series will be Chris Pronger's health (broken hand). Look at how the Flyers tumbled without Pronger in the lineup. If he returns, that series will be very competitive. If not, well...I have half a mind of switching to Sabres in 5, but I won't. Sabres in 6.
Bruins-Habs looks like it'll be competitive all the way. In addition to all the history and bad blood, both teams are similarly talented. Boston clearly has an advantage in net (with a better, more rested starter), but up front and on the blueline, you could make a case Montreal has been better. Their special teams are better, but they lose in possession and in net, though not by much in either case. I'll revise my prediction here. With home ice advantage, Bruins in 7.
Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay is intriguing because the rosters suggest a completely different storyline from the underlying numbers. Conventional wisdom suggests Pittsburgh will roll over to the sheer talent Tampa has--Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos, Vinny Lecavalier, Simon Gagne, etc. The possession metrics suggest Pittsburgh is playing much, much better hockey, though. Tampa will really need their PP to click, and against Pittsburgh's elite PK, I'm not sure that'll happen. I'm switching here, too. It'll take a lot of OTs to replace those shootouts, but Penguins in 5.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Recap: Bruins 3 @ Capitals 5
"Caps are playing with a lot of purpose, a lot of focus"--Jack Edwards, NESN, during the second period
This game was more exciting than it needed to be.
Boston looks to me like it plays its best hockey in a low tempo, controlled, low-volume game. That was their story last season--last in the league in offense, but one of the best in defense. Few shots for, few shots against. That is how they played through the first half of the first period, until they got into a bit of penalty trouble. While Washington didn't score, they did control the puck better thereafter.
That puck control carried over into the second, which must have been one of the Caps' best periods to date. They were dominant and pretty clinical for stretches. It was dump-in or carry-in, forecheck, generate a chance or chances, and when the puck got cleared, chase it down, change lines, and repeat. Green was very noticeable and looks to be automatic to the top corner again.
To start the third, Claude Julien swapped in Tuukka Rask for Tim Thomas, and the move paid dividends during the next ten minutes of game time, during which Boston scored two power play goals and an even strength goal to tie the game at 3. That being said, I think Boston was getting a bit lucky, as those three goals were on four scoring chances by my count--not exactly a lot. On the third goal, for example, it was a 2-on-2-turned-2-on-0 when David Steckel and John Carlson collided and Alzner tried to rush back but ultimately couldn't get back in time. After Shawn Thornton tied the game on that play, though, the Caps seemed to find their legs, in part helped by Bruce Boudreau moving Alexander Semin back to the second line with Tomas Fleischmann (who had himself some good takeaways and forechecks) and Brooks Laich.
Braden Holtby came on after Thornton's goal and stopped the handful of shots he faced, for his first career win. Way to go.
Man of the match: Mike Green. He was all over the place and really only made one mistake the entire game. He had a shorthanded assist and a beauty of a goal to give himself a 3-game goal scoring streak. How's that stick working out for ya?
This game was more exciting than it needed to be.
Boston looks to me like it plays its best hockey in a low tempo, controlled, low-volume game. That was their story last season--last in the league in offense, but one of the best in defense. Few shots for, few shots against. That is how they played through the first half of the first period, until they got into a bit of penalty trouble. While Washington didn't score, they did control the puck better thereafter.
That puck control carried over into the second, which must have been one of the Caps' best periods to date. They were dominant and pretty clinical for stretches. It was dump-in or carry-in, forecheck, generate a chance or chances, and when the puck got cleared, chase it down, change lines, and repeat. Green was very noticeable and looks to be automatic to the top corner again.
To start the third, Claude Julien swapped in Tuukka Rask for Tim Thomas, and the move paid dividends during the next ten minutes of game time, during which Boston scored two power play goals and an even strength goal to tie the game at 3. That being said, I think Boston was getting a bit lucky, as those three goals were on four scoring chances by my count--not exactly a lot. On the third goal, for example, it was a 2-on-2-turned-2-on-0 when David Steckel and John Carlson collided and Alzner tried to rush back but ultimately couldn't get back in time. After Shawn Thornton tied the game on that play, though, the Caps seemed to find their legs, in part helped by Bruce Boudreau moving Alexander Semin back to the second line with Tomas Fleischmann (who had himself some good takeaways and forechecks) and Brooks Laich.
Braden Holtby came on after Thornton's goal and stopped the handful of shots he faced, for his first career win. Way to go.
Man of the match: Mike Green. He was all over the place and really only made one mistake the entire game. He had a shorthanded assist and a beauty of a goal to give himself a 3-game goal scoring streak. How's that stick working out for ya?
Preview: Bruins @ Capitals
Washington Capitals @ Boston Bruins
Washington: 8-4-0, 16 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 7-8-15 in 12 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries/illnesses: D Tom Poti, C Marcus Johansson, D Tyler Sloan, G Semyon Varlamov
Probable starting goalie: Michal Neuvirth (8-3-0, 2.31, .920, 1 SO)
Player to watch: G Michal Neuvirth
Boston: 7-2-0, 14 points
Leading scorer: Nathan Horton, 5-5-10 in 9 GP, and David Krejci, 2-8-10 in 9 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 53.4%
Notable injuries/illnesses: C Marc Savard, W Marco Sturm, D Andrew Ference, D Johnny Boychuk
Probable starting goalie: Tim Thomas (7-0-0, 0.72, .977, 3 SO)
Player to watch: G Tim Thomas
Time for revenge. Again.
1) Is Tim Thomas falling back to Earth? After a scorching hot start through six games, Thomas actually gave up two goals to Buffalo. Granted, that's just as easily an outlier as the beginning of a trend, but if he's truly cooling off, even a tiny bit, the Capitals should be able to take advantage.
2) Will the second line hold its own? With Alexander Semin on the top line for the time being, Mike Knuble-Brooks Laich and someone else will play on the second line. While in terms of pure ability that might make a good line, chances are none of the guys on that line will be a guy who drives the play (maybe Eric Fehr). If Tomas Fleischmann plays there and has a down game, this game could get ugly.
3) Will Alex Ovechkin take control? Thus far in his career Ovechkin has been kept in check pretty well by Boston, and in the season series to date Ovechkin has been pretty ineffective. He needs to dominate whoever he goes up against (I'd bet on his matchup at the outset being against Krejci-Horton-Lucic and Chara) and set the tone early. He shouldn't be a guy who consistently can't come up big against a good team.
4) Who takes control early? While the Caps broke 60% Corsi in their two previous meetings with Boston, Boston also scored early and took multiple goal leads, so score effects were likely in play. I'd much rather have the Capitals score first and force Boston to open it up a bit. If the Caps can stay disciplined early and take a lead, or the better of the play with the score tied, into the first intermission, I like their chances. But no so much if they can't.
5) Can the Caps put together a 60 minute defensive effort? Boston's forward depth is pretty good, so if any line is off it could potentially be disastrous. With the way Thomas is playing, this game will be within striking distance all game long for Boston, and the Caps need to make sure they don't let Boston back into it with sloppy play from the bottom pair or bottom six forwards.
All in all, I think the Capitals have got this. The home ice means Boudreau can get Fahey/Erskine and the bottom forwards away from Bergeron and/or Krejci, using the last change, and the team has looked much, much better with Mike Green back in the lineup. Marcus Johansson is expected to suit up as well and should stabilize the third or second line. Semin has sparked the first line to better results, even if not always to better puck control. Things are looking good.
Capitals 4, Bruins 2.
Washington: 8-4-0, 16 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 7-8-15 in 12 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries/illnesses: D Tom Poti, C Marcus Johansson, D Tyler Sloan, G Semyon Varlamov
Probable starting goalie: Michal Neuvirth (8-3-0, 2.31, .920, 1 SO)
Player to watch: G Michal Neuvirth
Boston: 7-2-0, 14 points
Leading scorer: Nathan Horton, 5-5-10 in 9 GP, and David Krejci, 2-8-10 in 9 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 53.4%
Notable injuries/illnesses: C Marc Savard, W Marco Sturm, D Andrew Ference, D Johnny Boychuk
Probable starting goalie: Tim Thomas (7-0-0, 0.72, .977, 3 SO)
Player to watch: G Tim Thomas
Time for revenge. Again.
1) Is Tim Thomas falling back to Earth? After a scorching hot start through six games, Thomas actually gave up two goals to Buffalo. Granted, that's just as easily an outlier as the beginning of a trend, but if he's truly cooling off, even a tiny bit, the Capitals should be able to take advantage.
2) Will the second line hold its own? With Alexander Semin on the top line for the time being, Mike Knuble-Brooks Laich and someone else will play on the second line. While in terms of pure ability that might make a good line, chances are none of the guys on that line will be a guy who drives the play (maybe Eric Fehr). If Tomas Fleischmann plays there and has a down game, this game could get ugly.
3) Will Alex Ovechkin take control? Thus far in his career Ovechkin has been kept in check pretty well by Boston, and in the season series to date Ovechkin has been pretty ineffective. He needs to dominate whoever he goes up against (I'd bet on his matchup at the outset being against Krejci-Horton-Lucic and Chara) and set the tone early. He shouldn't be a guy who consistently can't come up big against a good team.
4) Who takes control early? While the Caps broke 60% Corsi in their two previous meetings with Boston, Boston also scored early and took multiple goal leads, so score effects were likely in play. I'd much rather have the Capitals score first and force Boston to open it up a bit. If the Caps can stay disciplined early and take a lead, or the better of the play with the score tied, into the first intermission, I like their chances. But no so much if they can't.
5) Can the Caps put together a 60 minute defensive effort? Boston's forward depth is pretty good, so if any line is off it could potentially be disastrous. With the way Thomas is playing, this game will be within striking distance all game long for Boston, and the Caps need to make sure they don't let Boston back into it with sloppy play from the bottom pair or bottom six forwards.
All in all, I think the Capitals have got this. The home ice means Boudreau can get Fahey/Erskine and the bottom forwards away from Bergeron and/or Krejci, using the last change, and the team has looked much, much better with Mike Green back in the lineup. Marcus Johansson is expected to suit up as well and should stabilize the third or second line. Semin has sparked the first line to better results, even if not always to better puck control. Things are looking good.
Capitals 4, Bruins 2.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Preview: Capitals @ Bruins
Washington Capitals @ Boston Bruins
Washington: 4-2-0, 8 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 4-4-8 in 6 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries/illnesses: D Mike Green, G Michal Neuvirth
Probable starting goalie: Semyon Varlamov (19-4-7, 2.52, .911 career)
Player to watch: W Alex Ovechkin
Boston: 3-1-0, 6 points
Leading scorer: Nathan Horton, 3-3-6 in 4 GP, and David Krejci, 1-5-6 in 4 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 53.4%
Notable injuries/illnesses: C Marc Savard, W Marco Sturm, D Andrew Ference
Probable starting goalie: Tuukka Rask
Player to watch: C David Krejci
Time for revenge.
1) Can the Caps match up? No Savard, no problem. The Bruins send out Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Tyler Seguin down the middle on forward lines 1-3, with pretty solid wingers too. If the Caps' top lines can't get anything going, we'll be in for a long night of being dominated. Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich played pretty well on Tuesday; let's hope that continues, with some tangible production this time around.
2) Will the top line gel? Claude Julien in Washington tried to go power versus power against the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble line, trotting out Nathan Horton-David Krejci-Milan Lucic against them. In Boston, with the last change, Julien should be able to do the same, and add Zdeno Chara on the blueline. Yikes. We know Alex Ovechkin can dominate anyone--the question is if he decides to or not. If he does, Tuukka Rask better watch out.
3) Will the special teams be 'specially good? The Caps' PK so far is at 100% and the PP has been fairly inconsistent. The Bruins look like the slightly better team at even strength, so the Capitals can't afford a clunker from their special teams units. No o-fer on the PP would help a lot.
4) Can the Capitals, you know, actually play well? The Caps went 4-1, and I gave them a C for the first five games, in large part because of a negative Fenwick and unimpressive scoring chance ratios. Let's see some better hockey, boys. Two nights ago you were better, but you were also outplaying Boston when trailing (score effects), the expected result. Let's see you come out strong in the first and dominate with the score tied.
5) Which Caps goalie shows up? If Varlamov starts, it will be his first since returning from injury, and the last few times he's returned from injury he's not been too impressive in his first game back. He was solid two nights ago, but he throughout his career has been exceptional in relief. Let's see how he does when starting. Boston plays a disciplined system and the Capitals will be hard-pressed to overcome a large deficit against Boston, so they can't afford any softies against.
Capitals 4, Bruins 1.
Washington: 4-2-0, 8 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 4-4-8 in 6 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries/illnesses: D Mike Green, G Michal Neuvirth
Probable starting goalie: Semyon Varlamov (19-4-7, 2.52, .911 career)
Player to watch: W Alex Ovechkin
Boston: 3-1-0, 6 points
Leading scorer: Nathan Horton, 3-3-6 in 4 GP, and David Krejci, 1-5-6 in 4 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 53.4%
Notable injuries/illnesses: C Marc Savard, W Marco Sturm, D Andrew Ference
Probable starting goalie: Tuukka Rask
Player to watch: C David Krejci
Time for revenge.
1) Can the Caps match up? No Savard, no problem. The Bruins send out Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Tyler Seguin down the middle on forward lines 1-3, with pretty solid wingers too. If the Caps' top lines can't get anything going, we'll be in for a long night of being dominated. Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich played pretty well on Tuesday; let's hope that continues, with some tangible production this time around.
2) Will the top line gel? Claude Julien in Washington tried to go power versus power against the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble line, trotting out Nathan Horton-David Krejci-Milan Lucic against them. In Boston, with the last change, Julien should be able to do the same, and add Zdeno Chara on the blueline. Yikes. We know Alex Ovechkin can dominate anyone--the question is if he decides to or not. If he does, Tuukka Rask better watch out.
3) Will the special teams be 'specially good? The Caps' PK so far is at 100% and the PP has been fairly inconsistent. The Bruins look like the slightly better team at even strength, so the Capitals can't afford a clunker from their special teams units. No o-fer on the PP would help a lot.
4) Can the Capitals, you know, actually play well? The Caps went 4-1, and I gave them a C for the first five games, in large part because of a negative Fenwick and unimpressive scoring chance ratios. Let's see some better hockey, boys. Two nights ago you were better, but you were also outplaying Boston when trailing (score effects), the expected result. Let's see you come out strong in the first and dominate with the score tied.
5) Which Caps goalie shows up? If Varlamov starts, it will be his first since returning from injury, and the last few times he's returned from injury he's not been too impressive in his first game back. He was solid two nights ago, but he throughout his career has been exceptional in relief. Let's see how he does when starting. Boston plays a disciplined system and the Capitals will be hard-pressed to overcome a large deficit against Boston, so they can't afford any softies against.
Capitals 4, Bruins 1.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Preview: Bruins @ Capitals
Boston Bruins @ Washington Capitals
Washington: 4-1-0, 8 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 4-4-8 in 5 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries: D Mike Green, D Tom Poti, W Matt Bradley
Probable starting goalie:Semyon Varlamov (season debut; 19-4-7, 2.52, .911 career) Michal Neuvirth
Player to watch: GSemyon Varlamov Michal Neuvirth
Boston: 2-1-0, 4 points
Leading scorer: Nathan Horton, 3-2-5 in 3 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 53.4%
Notable injuries: C Marc Savard, W Marco Sturm, D Andrew Ference
Probable starting goalie: Tim Thomas
Player to watch: W Nathan Horton
In recent years, the Capitals and Bruins have had some close, fun games. Aside from a 10-2 victory by Washington in the spring of 2008 that saw Tim Thomas give up 8 goals, each matchup has been within two goals, in large part because of the Bruins' great goaltending. In 2008-2009, both Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez put up Vezina-esque numbers in net for Boston (as did both Craig Anderson and Tomas Vokoun in Florida, and as will Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth this season for Washington, one can hope). Last season, it was Tim Thomas and 23-year old rookie goalie Tuukka Rask, who was absolutely stellar. Thomas actually had pretty solid numbers last year, which is in part why through three games he seems to be Boston's starter...for now.
Questions that will be answered:
1) How will the Caps handle Boston's forward depth? Take a quick gander at Boston's depth chart. Even without Savard, there's 9 solid forwards in there, minimum. While the Bruins lack the top-tier offensive talent the Capitals have, they can match the Capitals line-for-line after the first lines. Considering the Capitals' lackluster blueline at the moment, depth should be extremely important. The Bruins will always be icing a capable group of forwards, and the Capitals won't always have the defensemen to match.
2) How will the Bruins' goaltending hold up? It may seem like a funny question to ask, but the Capitals have a knack for making premier goalies look bad. Tim Thomas isn't the most consistent goalie, and thus far Rask hasn't been great either (in only one game, note). The Bruins rely on their goalies stopping the shots they should and can't really afford for their goalies to let in several softies, since they don't have the star power up front that a team like Washington or Chicago does.
3) Will the special teams continue to be 'specially good? The Caps' PK so far is at 100% and the PP has struck 3 times in the last two games. The Bruins look like the slightly better team at even strength, so the Capitals can't afford a clunker from their special teams units.
4) Can the Capitals, you know, actually play well? The Caps went 4-1, and I gave them a C for the first five games, in large part because of a negative Fenwick and unimpressive scoring chance ratios. Let's see some better hockey, boys.
5) Which Caps goalie shows up? If Neuvirth starts, it will be his sixth straight. If Varlamov starts, it will be his first since returning from injury, and the last few times he's returned from injury he's not been too impressive in his first game back. Boston plays a disciplined system and the Capitals will be hard-pressed to overcome a large deficit against Boston.
Bruins 3, Capitals 1.
Washington: 4-1-0, 8 points
Leading scorer: Alex Ovechkin, 4-4-8 in 5 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 51.1%
Notable injuries: D Mike Green, D Tom Poti, W Matt Bradley
Probable starting goalie:
Player to watch: G
Boston: 2-1-0, 4 points
Leading scorer: Nathan Horton, 3-2-5 in 3 GP
Tied Fenwick% last season: 53.4%
Notable injuries: C Marc Savard, W Marco Sturm, D Andrew Ference
Probable starting goalie: Tim Thomas
Player to watch: W Nathan Horton
In recent years, the Capitals and Bruins have had some close, fun games. Aside from a 10-2 victory by Washington in the spring of 2008 that saw Tim Thomas give up 8 goals, each matchup has been within two goals, in large part because of the Bruins' great goaltending. In 2008-2009, both Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez put up Vezina-esque numbers in net for Boston (as did both Craig Anderson and Tomas Vokoun in Florida, and as will Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth this season for Washington, one can hope). Last season, it was Tim Thomas and 23-year old rookie goalie Tuukka Rask, who was absolutely stellar. Thomas actually had pretty solid numbers last year, which is in part why through three games he seems to be Boston's starter...for now.
Questions that will be answered:
1) How will the Caps handle Boston's forward depth? Take a quick gander at Boston's depth chart. Even without Savard, there's 9 solid forwards in there, minimum. While the Bruins lack the top-tier offensive talent the Capitals have, they can match the Capitals line-for-line after the first lines. Considering the Capitals' lackluster blueline at the moment, depth should be extremely important. The Bruins will always be icing a capable group of forwards, and the Capitals won't always have the defensemen to match.
2) How will the Bruins' goaltending hold up? It may seem like a funny question to ask, but the Capitals have a knack for making premier goalies look bad. Tim Thomas isn't the most consistent goalie, and thus far Rask hasn't been great either (in only one game, note). The Bruins rely on their goalies stopping the shots they should and can't really afford for their goalies to let in several softies, since they don't have the star power up front that a team like Washington or Chicago does.
3) Will the special teams continue to be 'specially good? The Caps' PK so far is at 100% and the PP has struck 3 times in the last two games. The Bruins look like the slightly better team at even strength, so the Capitals can't afford a clunker from their special teams units.
4) Can the Capitals, you know, actually play well? The Caps went 4-1, and I gave them a C for the first five games, in large part because of a negative Fenwick and unimpressive scoring chance ratios. Let's see some better hockey, boys.
5) Which Caps goalie shows up? If Neuvirth starts, it will be his sixth straight. If Varlamov starts, it will be his first since returning from injury, and the last few times he's returned from injury he's not been too impressive in his first game back. Boston plays a disciplined system and the Capitals will be hard-pressed to overcome a large deficit against Boston.
Bruins 3, Capitals 1.
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