A Strong Bottom Six

Of all the possible factors that could cause the Capitals to bow out of the playoffs early this year--coaching, power play, even strength offense, penalty kill, goaltending, etc--there's one that I'm convinced will be a legitimate, significant strength for the Caps: the bottom-six forwards.

On Marcus Johansson's Queer Stats

Marcus Johansson, the Capitals' 1st round pick in 2009, is a fantastic skater with good defensive instincts. He's in the lineup each night he's healthy. He's played first line center, second line center, and third line center already. His scoring chance differential is pretty decent, especially for a 20-year old rookie. Yet, his Corsi is terrible, with middling competition and teammates and easy zone start.

What gives? Maybe this is a trend of young players, who don't have the strength to generate good Corsi numbers but don't lack the smarts to prevent good scoring opportunities (which are heavily influenced by stickwork and positioning, not just strength).

Here I'll test that hypothesis. The young players I can compare Johansson to are the ones who also have scoring chance data, so players for the Oilers, '09-'10 Flames (72 games), '10-'11 Flames, Maple Leafs (76 games in '09-'10), Canadiens, '10-'11 Rangers, '10-'11 Panthers, '09-'10 Avalanche (first half of the season only), and the '09-'10 Wild (through Game 20589) are included along with Johansson. Caps scoring chance data courtesy Russian Machine Never Breaks.

Here's the list of forwards I got, with a 20 game cutoff for 09-10 and five games for 10-11:

09-10: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bozak, TJ Galiardi, Ryan Wilson, Viktor Stalberg, Tom Pyatt, Brandon Yip, Robbie Earl, Christian Hanson, Ryan Stone, Mikael Backlund, Luca Caputi

10-11: Taylor Hall, Marcus Johansson, Magnus Paajarvi, Jordan Eberle, Lars Eller, Stefan Meyer, Evgeny Grachev, plus some of the guys in the previous year.

All stats from behindthenet.ca and Timeonice as of the morning of November 22, 2010. I apologize for the incomplete stats at this point. Click to enlarge.

The thought that struck me about halfway through this exercise is that Johansson's Corsi Rel could be so poor because the Capitals are a good Corsi team. His Corsi On is about -0.8, which bears out that hypothesis. The Capitals' scoring chance percentage, going by Neil Greenberg's numbers, is .517 (my numbers are incomplete).

What jumps out to me is just how poor Magnus Paajarvi's scoring chance percentage is (which makes me wonder about this post). He's getting creamed, and for some reason Tom Renney is playing him against top competition. His linemates tend to be a combination of Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff, Gilbert Brule, Ales Hemsky, and Jordan Eberle. And Eberle has been terrific so far (sigh...the 2008 draft...)

For an idea of what this season's Corsi% totals look like, here's some data compiled by JLikens, used to adjust Corsi based on various factors.

Marcus Johansson looks middling to slightly above average among first-year players on that list, with Eberle, Bozak, Eller, Hall, and Backlund looking better. Not bad at all. Backlund has remained very, very good for Calgary.

Looks to me like Marcus Johansson's Corsi and scoring chance numbers are only queer because he's one of the few young players that actually plays for a pretty good team. Is that good or bad that such a good team is dressing such a young player? Only time will tell.

Congratulations, Marcus Johansson

Chalk this one up as on October 19, 2010, Boston Bruins @ Washington Capitals, 7:42 of the second period, with helpers from Jason Chimera and Matt Hendricks.

30 Caps in 30 Days: Marcus Johansson

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night, and linemates are those listed at 10% or greater. Today, Marcus Johansson)

Marcus Johansson: age 20, 5'11", 189 pounds, shoots left.
Contract: entry level, $900k million, RFA in 2013, per Capgeek.

2009-2010 raw stats, via stats.swehockey.se:
SEL: 42 GP, 10-10-20, 10 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 0-5-5, 2 PIM


(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)