Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Good Teams, Bad Games

I took the teams with 54+% Corsi close at the end of each season and looked at their Corsi percentages over each three-game stretch (overlaps included).

According to Extra Skater, the Capitals are at 46.8% over their first three games of the 2013-14 season. A little over four percent of three-game stretches here fall in that range (less than and not including 47%).

Caps under 46.8%: Fehr, Brouwer, Chimera, Alzner, Hillen, Ward, Green, Carrick, Oleksy, Beagle. Caps over 50%: Erskine, Ovechkin, Erat, Backstrom, Wilson, Latta, Carlson, Johansson.

I'm not sure what to make of this. On the one hand, it's probably a good bet that the Capitals are not an elite possession team. (I thought they'd be around 52-53%...eight percent of three-game segments for 52+% Corsi close teams are under 47%. The figure is four-and-a-half percent for 53% Corsi close teams. Still not good odds, but there's a little more hope on the 52% front.) On the other hand, four percent of the time is still three or four times a season (80 three-game segments in 82 games).

I still think this team is a 52% possession team that'll be on the good side of PDO (assuming Erat moves up the lineup and Laich down). But, obviously, this slow start is less than encouraging, especially given that last season wasn't that great possession-wise for Washington.

The 17 teams above 54% Corsi close: 07-08 Red Wings, 07-08 Rangers, 07-08 Capitals, 08-09 Sharks, 08-09 Red Wings, 08-09 Blackhawks, 08-09 Capitals, 08-09 Flames, 09-10 Red Wings, 09-10 Blackhawks, 11-12 Red Wings, 11-12 Penguins, 11-12 Devils, 11-12 Kings, 12-13 Devils, 12-13 Blackhawks, 12-13 Bruins, 12-13 Kings.

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