Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Corsi heading into the playoffs, East

You can check out the West at Fear the Fin.

First, just score-tied:

A few things:

a) One of Boston's games is missing. The NHL doesn't upload a play-by-play for a few games each season. This was the one, it seems.

b) I haven't seen the research showing that "close" (tied in the 3rd or OT, or within a goal in the 1st or 2nd) is better than "tied."

c) Tied still isn't great because we only have a 48-game sample, but I thought I'd add it in, anyway.

d) Montreal really sets itself apart, and Pittsburgh was until the injuries began piling up.

e) The narrative is that the Islanders improved as the year went along. Everything I've seen supports that.

f) Some teams have better Corsi than Fenwick. The Capitals have been like that for years. Some teams have better Fenwick than Corsi, like the Rangers, unsurprisingly. I don't think this is a mistake--I compiled "close" numbers and those are similar to what I get from Timeonice. Certainly is crazy how "Tied" says the Capitals should be favored, while "close" is easily in favor of NYR. Perhaps worth noting that NYR was basically even outside of a poor ~10-15 game stretch in the middle of the season.

Seems like Montreal, Boston, NYI (after a strong finish), PIT, and NYR are all top teams. No surprise. Toronto is easily the worst. No surprise.

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