Friday, September 9, 2011

Semin's (Regular) Inconsistency, Part 1

I looked at these basic numbers for Alexander Semin (courtesy of Hockey Reference) over the regular season. The list of data is here. I made two charts.

This shows 10-game rolling averages over Semin's post-lockout games played. As one would expect, for the most part, Semin was getting more shifts when he was shooting a higher percentage. The penalty minutes line paints a very interesting picture, and perhaps one fans might expect: when Semin's shooting percentage has its peaks, his PIM totals have their nadirs, and when shooting percentage falls sharply, PIM totals rise. I'm not quite sure how definitive of a trend that is, but it certainly does suggest Semin gets frustrated when he cannot convert, but when he is converting, he doesn't take those silly "HHT" penalties.

To normalize (no pun intended) the scales a little, I calculated z-scores for each point and plotted those against one another.

Aside from one point about 1/6th of the way through the graph, we see shift totals and shooting percentage follow each other. It also seems like Semin has lower PIM totals when he has lower shift totals, perhaps because he "gets the message" that he's being partially benched. Similarly, it looks like higher PIM totals are accompanied by higher shift totals, and although more TOI = more PIM, we're talking a couple of minutes here and there for the most part. In short, I give much more credence to the idea that Semin's mental state affects his play on-ice to a pretty significant extent.

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