Thursday, July 14, 2011

Corsi Rankings

Just a data dump. You can access the lists here as well.
Corsi shows a closer correlation to winning in relevant-sized samples, but Fenwick ratios mimic scoring chance ratios extremely well and is on better theoretical grounds, removing shot-blocking skill from the equation. I'm not sure what exactly to make of that. Score tied data gets a higher r-squared when plotted versus points than total.

Corsi, total:

Corsi, score tied:

Fenwick, total:

Fenwick, score tied:

Taking last season as a whole, the Caps were a pretty bad #1 seed, just middling in the league in terms of controlling the play (they had below average shooting luck, yes, but how much of that came in the handful of blowout losses?). Meanwhile, Chicago was one of the strongest 8 seeds since...well, 2006 Edmonton perhaps, but I can't recall an 8 seed that was legitimately better than a 1 seed, and Chicago certainly looks like it has the basis for that conclusion right here. Buffalo and San Jose both went on absolute tears in the 2011 portion of the schedule (we're talking 55-58% with the score tied).

Comparing these lists to those of years past, it seems obvious that there is more and more parity. The 07-08 leaders in score-tied Corsi were the Red Wings and Sharks, both close to 60%. In 08-09, both the Penguins and Red Wings were up there as well. In 09-10, the Blackhawks were about 58%. In 10-11, the leader was Chicago after "blowing up their team" (that is, losing some bottom-6 forwards, Andrew Ladd, and a couple of third-pair defenseman).

I expect the Caps (thanks to FA), Kings (thanks to trades), Islanders (health and growth), Blue Jackets (trades), Rangers (FA and growth), and even the Oilers (growth) to move well up the list in the coming year, and the Red Wings (age), Flyers (trades), Canadiens (FA), Blues (trades), and Panthers (FA) to fall.

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