Sunday, February 13, 2011

Capitals Adjusted Corsi

Corsi and Fenwick ratings, adjusted for zone starts. Each offensive zone start is worth about 0.8 Corsi, and each negative zone start is worth about -0.8 Corsi. You can see the spreadsheet here. All data from

I sorted by adjusted Corsi On, not adjusted Corsi Rel.

QoC is Corsi Rel QoC, QoT is Corsi Rel QoT.

To calculate Corsi adjust, I calculated the player's raw Corsi for the entire season, added or subtracted to adjust for zone starts, and converted that back to a Corsi/60 measure. Corsi Rel adjust is Corsi adjust minus Corsi Off (which I did not adjust). Corsi Rel Delta is Corsi Rel adjust less the original Corsi Rel. ODelta is the zone start plus-minus (offensive zone starts minus defensive zone starts), and OPCT is offensive zone start percentage (Ozonestarts divided by total non-neutral zone starts).

  • More Andrew Gordon, please. He looks NHL-ready, possibly top-6. At the very least, he deserves a look as a top-9 wing. His linemates haven't been Corsi studs, yet his raw Corsi in just over 60 minutes on the season is +15, and apparently against decent competition.
  • Less Marcus Johansson. He may look good by the eyes, but he's getting killed territorially. At a minimum, you have to admit his offensive smarts aren't quite there yet. He has the highest zone start delta on the team, yet one of the worst unadjusted Corsis. I hesitate to admit it, but in my humble opinion, he could use some AHL time. He can come back up when he's really ready. I don't doubt there are plenty of centers available for a low draft pick who'd do better in Johansson's position.
  • At least, I can't think of any other reasons why every underlying metric suggests he can't really handle his not-terribly-tough minutes. Can you?
  • If that doesn't happen, Bruce Boudreau, don't put Johansson and Chimera together. Their underlying numbers make them seem like a disaster waiting to happen. I advocated for Chimera-Perreault-Fehr before the season started, and I'll stick by that. Looking at Chimera's zone finish, I reckon Chimera is good at moving the puck up ice, but doesn't really know what to do with it once on the attack. He needs linemates that can sustain offense. Preferably two of 'em. 
  • And not Backstrom and Ovechkin.
  • Boyd Gordon is a really good defensive center. Not quite Selke-worthy, but still really good.
  • David Steckel is no pushover, either.
  • And Matt Bradley is a pretty good fourth line wing, too.
  • I can't believe Matt Hendricks fell into the Caps' lap like that. Tough competition, poorest linemates, and he comes out ahead. Wow.
  • John Carlson is arguably the Caps' best defenseman. For real. At even strength he's comparable to Mike Green, and Green appears to have given up his huge advantage on the power play this season. The other day I came across people who think other rookie defensemen like Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk have been better...yeah, right.
  • Scott Hannan has settled in nicely. Tom Poti and Jeff Schultz? Not so much. What happened, double-nickel? Sidenote: Chris Phillips is the only legitimate top-pair D available and UFA in July 2011.
  • George McPhee needs to re-sign Brooks Laich for cheap before his agent figures out how good he's been this season. You could say he's been partly carried by Alexander Semin, but you could also say for most of the year he's had a better Corsi than Semin--or any other Cap--despite the toughest competition among forwards. Imagine how kick-ass a line with Laich and Semin would be centered by a player who can also drive the play (coughWeisscough). They'd be Zetterberg-Filppula-Franzen-esque, methinks.
  • DJ King has averaged roughly a fight every two games this season. The more time he spends sitting those majors (as a proportion of his total time not-in-the-press-box-or-on-the-bench), the better, frankly.

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