Monday, August 23, 2010

Complete Semin WOWY

Just for sake of completeness I'll do the Semin WOWY including Eric Belanger and the Caps' defensemen: Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Joe Corvo, Brian Pothier, Shaone Morrisonn, Milan Jurcina, John Erskine, Tom Poti, Tyler Sloan, and John Carlson.

Note that the first player's column in the second chart is Semin himself.

Delta1 is how much better the player's Corsi% is with Semin than without Semin. Delta2 is how much better Semin's Corsi% is with the player than without the player.

I made a mistake calculating Delta1 and Delta2 for the forwards, so I've included that data again as well. I threw in Belanger to the far right, though I wouldn't put too much stock into his numbers because of how much he was shuffled around.






Semin is a whole lot better with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Morrison, Green, and Carlson, and Semin makes Green, Carlson, Morrison, and Belanger a lot better. He's a whole lot worse with Morrisonn, Sloan, and Fleischmann. It looks like Flash and Semin have anti-chemistry. Clearly, the Caps need someone else to play with Alexander Semin.

Well, since Marcus Johansson probably won't be able to step in and play second-line center, I quickly looked up Mathieu Perreault's numbers, again using Vic Ferrari's great script. His Fenwick% was .497 and his Corsi% was .509 in 21 games played, so he was about a break-even player. But his teammates in general were pretty poor and he did alright for himself.

I'll also throw out that Perreault went 16-34-50 in 56 AHL games, a 23-50-73 82 game pace with Hershey, giving him an NHLE of 0.41 x 73 = 30 pts per 82 games. It looks though like Perreault was stuck on the depth chart behind Keith Aucoin and possible Kyle Wilson, and should make the jump to a top-6 center rather than a bottom-6, so we can add to this. Throw in PP time and "playing on the Capitals" factor and maybe we're looking at 45 points. He looks better if we take his 2.17 pts/60 and give him 18 mins of ice time a night, thus getting .651 pts/game and 53 points over 82 games, and that doesn't even factor in that some of those 18 minutes will be power play time.

Still, not certain enough for me. Perreault was a streaky player in his stints with the Capitals and a few fewer points would paint an entirely different picture. Perreault looks like he's worth giving a shot, and can certainly change my mind depending on how he starts the season, but McPhee should definitely be investigating other options for center, especially players that play like Backstrom and Morrison. In terms of defensemen, I'm not quite sure why Ovechkin and Semin show different trends. I guess simply getting a good defenseman is enough.

9 comments:

  1. Surprising how the expectations on Matty P get out of control.

    If we look at his NHLe he performed almost EXACTLY as we would have expected him to in 20 NHL games: NHLe had him at 8 pts for 21 games, he put up 9.

    "It looks though like Perreault was stuck on the depth chart behind Keith Aucoin and possible Kyle Wilson, and should make the jump to a top-6 center rather than a bottom-6, so we can add to this."

    If he wasn't good enough to be Top6 in AHL, why would he be a Top6 fwd in NHL?

    "Throw in PP time and "playing on the Capitals" factor and maybe we're looking at 45 points."

    1. Who's PP time would he get? The First PP unit is set so it would have to be on 2nd unit.

    2. What's "the Capitals Factor?"

    3. 45 points for a 2nd year center is A LOT.In fact, only 6 active centers have AVG's .5 points per game in their 2nd year at age 23: JJokinen, Pavelsi, McClement, E Chrisensen, Backes and Lombardi. And those averaged 59 games in their first season at 22 scoring an average of 29 points. Matty P played 21 games and scored 9.

    "He looks better if we take his 2.17 pts/60 and give him 18 mins of ice time a night"

    18 min of TOI/G puts him 52nd out of all centers last year. That's a BONA FIDE Top 2 center. That would also be 63% increase in his playing time at the NHL level. 9 points in 20 NHL games supports that increase next year? He would look great if we give him 60 min/game but that's not realistic either. :-)

    "doesn't even factor in that some of those 18 minutes will be power play time"

    How much PP time would he get on the 2nd line? 2nd line unit averages about 1:30 per game. How much production do you think would come from that (generous) amount of time?

    "Perreault looks like he's worth giving a shot"

    Agreed, just not as a 2C with significant P time.

    "McPhee should definitely be investigating other options for center, especially players that play like Backstrom and Morrison."

    Wow. Quite the range here. Caps cannot afford another player like Backstrom and players like Morrison are exactly what player like Matty P are brought up to replace.

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  2. Neil, Semin drives the 2nd line: MP just has to play along well enough. Looking at who his linemates in Hershey were I'd say he was doing the playmaking. In Washington, he just has to pass to Semin and make himself open for another pass. Fehr or Laich can go to the corners, Semin will be the puck possession guy.

    "If he wasn't good enough to be Top6 in AHL, why would he be a Top6 fwd in NHL?"

    Because there are some guys that own the AHL. Keith Aucoin is one of those guys. I'm not sure whether or not MP was 2nd or 3rd line center, but either way, I think you had the top scoring line plus, if memory serves, a two-way Rod Brind'Amour '06 type in Wilson centering the second. It comes down to role, just like with Alexander Semin, who is stuck as the #2.


    "1. Who's PP time would he get? The First PP unit is set so it would have to be on 2nd unit."

    Alright, so he gets 2nd unit duty because he's #2C, or gets up at first sign of injury--and the Caps were pretty lucky in terms of health this past season.


    "2. What's "the Capitals Factor?" "

    Offense, and lots of it. You probably have inflated totals for secondary guys like Semin, Fleischmann, and Fehr.


    "And those averaged 59 games in their first season at 22 scoring an average of 29 points. Matty P played 21 games and scored 9."

    So then he's right on pace. I also think because of how many goals the Caps will likely score that it'd be more accurate to look at 8th or so in points on the team, which is perfectly within reach as far as I know.


    "18 min of TOI/G puts him 52nd out of all centers last year. That's a BONA FIDE Top 2 center."

    30 teams --> 60 top 2 centers, more or less. 52 means he's bottom 10 among second line centers, right? Maybe more realistic is Brendan Morrison's 15:30 a night or so, and that still makes 46 points.


    "How much production do you think would come from that (generous) amount of time?"

    Morrison got 8 PP points.

    "That would also be 63% increase in his playing time at the NHL level. 9 points in 20 NHL games supports that increase next year?"

    Supply <<< Demand for the Caps. They NEED him to be 2C (well, they'll probably go to Fleischmann at the start, but I'm sure Boudreau will realize that that is a disaster. Fleischmann and Semin had anti-chemistry).


    "Wow. Quite the range here. Caps cannot afford another player like Backstrom and players like Morrison are exactly what player like Matty P are brought up to replace."

    Players that PLAY LIKE Backstrom and Morrison. Seemed to me in the WOWY charts that Semin had extra chemistry with those two (though time with Backstrom by extension means time with Ovechkin for the most part).
    Moreover, if MP replaces BMo, he's done very well for himself. You might have seen in the previous WOWY for Semin that I was in the BMo camp. I think he's a big upgrade over who the Caps have right now.

    I'm just not trying to be a complete party pooper on MP/Johansson/Flash here, that's all. I don't think MP will work out, but I'm trying to see why he could.

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  3. "Semin drives the 2nd line: MP just has to play along well enough."

    I don't disagree that Semin helps the CORSI number of others. However, you are looking at 2 players on a 5-man line. MP had a negative 9 relative CORSI - and that was WITH starting in the offensive zone 57.5% of the time - second to Backstrom - playing against terrible competition. There is no evidence yet that he deserves a 2nd line spot or would provide ANY positive value to Semin.

    "Because there are some guys that own the AHL. Keith Aucoin is one of those guys."

    Aucoin is 32 years old playing against mostly 21-25 year olds. He SHOULD dominate the AHL, but that isn't "real" skill any more than a 25 year old playing against U18.

    "You probably have inflated totals for secondary guys like Semin, Fleischmann, and Fehr."

    What evidence is there to support this? Fehr had a 60+% CORSI rate in 2008-9 over 60+ games. He posted a 23.94 CORSI/60 while playing against the third toughest COMP Caps' opponents had to offer with bottom 6 linemates. That is legit IMO.

    "So then he's right on pace."

    How so? He COULDN'T get past 21 games, where all of the centers I listed PLAYED on average 59 games at the NHL level their first year. He was perceived as not being ready and sent down. He wan nowhere NEAR "pace."

    "Seemed to me in the WOWY charts that Semin had extra chemistry with those two"

    Context is everything. BMo was used against MUCH less QualComp than Semin was, on average. It's possible that is why Semin seems to have "extra chemistry."

    MP #s suggest he is a replacement 3C AT BEST right now - IMO - until he proves otherwise. based on what he has done up to this point I don't see him being anything other than a career AHLer who sees limited time in the NHL due to injury.

    In any event, glad to see someone else making use of the WOWY scripts and NHLe for the Caps.

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  4. "There is no evidence yet that he deserves a 2nd line spot or would provide ANY positive value to Semin."

    My point was that he deserves a shot and it's not a complete surprise if he's decent. Aside from Eric Fehr, who he played with about 25% of the time, he was playing with Corsi holes (as far as I know) like Clark, Laich, and Fleischmann. (He also got lots of time with Chimera and Bradley). He looked great with players that weren't defensive liabilities at even strength.
    His RATING, for what it's worth, comes out the same as Morrison's.


    "Aucoin is 32 years old playing against mostly 21-25 year olds. He SHOULD dominate the AHL, but that isn't "real" skill any more than a 25 year old playing against U18."

    So we don't know what Perreault can do with skill linemates, right? And there are plenty of veterans in the AHL. Just from the Bears roster last year, aged over 25: Aucoin, Giroux, Wilson, Kane, Helmer, Amadio, Sloan, Laing, Cash, and possibly others that I am unsure about. Perreault has probably always been undersized, so I don't know that it's much of a problem. He's already shown that he can be a serviceable NHLer.


    "What evidence is there to support this?"

    Fehr isn't the best example, but shooting percentage and PDO were positive all over the place. It was ridiculous--I think the only regular Caps with PDOs under 101% were Morrisonn and Chimera. Most of that was high ESsh% (I hope)


    "How so? He COULDN'T get past 21 games, where all of the centers I listed PLAYED on average 59 games at the NHL level their first year. He was perceived as not being ready and sent down."

    I'd say he was perceived as being better off in the AHL where he'd play a more important role. The Caps didn't need another center at that point. Gordon was out, right, and the MP experiment was before Fleischmann experiment at C? It's along the lines of partly why Alzner was in the AHL almost all year--to play a more important role there. Also why they signed Sabourin, so Holtby can keep starting rather than come up to sit on the bench.
    At any rate he should be better than he was last year.

    "Context is everything. BMo was used against MUCH less QualComp than Semin was, on average. It's possible that is why Semin seems to have "extra chemistry." "

    I don't think this applies, because they were used together, hence facing the exact same competition, while getting that good Corsi%.


    "MP #s suggest he is a replacement 3C AT BEST right now - IMO - until he proves otherwise."

    Quite honestly, I see Belanger as the same--he hasn't shown me the offensive creativity to be a scoring line center yet, though I wouldn't mind if Boudreau makes the second line a Richards type line with Semin-Belanger-Fehr. Anyways, of the four choices, I think Perreault is the best fit for a scoring line center at this point. Again, I'm not trying to be a complete MP party pooper. I know it's highly unlikely, but there have to be reasons why McPhee is willing to consider the guy for that spot.

    "based on what he has done up to this point I don't see him being anything other than a career AHLer who sees limited time in the NHL due to injury."

    I'd give him 3rd scoring line wing, serviceable on the 2nd line. I don't think he can play center in the NHL, though.
    For what it's worth, Bradley-Perreault-Fehr looks like it was an amazing third/fourth line (third, but who knows how Boudreau uses his bottom two forward lines). MP-Fehr had a 57% in Corsi and MP-Bradley had 60%, with two of the biggest sample sizes among the forwards. He had a 42% with Semin, but with only 29 events. Erskine, Laich, Fleischmann, and Morrisonn really killed Perreault's overall Corsi%.

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  5. Context IS everything. For example:

    "[Perreault's] RATING, for what it's worth, comes out the same as Morrison's."

    True, but it is an additive stat: (GFON-GAON)-(GFOFF -GAOFF).

    At 5v5, Matty P was on for 11GF, 7GA in 223 ES minutes. B-MO: 53GF, 28GA in 922 ES minutes. That's a HUGE difference. You saying that those two "Rating" stats, IN CONTEXT of TOI/QualCOMP/QualTeam are EQUAL??? Regression to the mean certainly applies here, no?

    "I don't think this applies, because they were used together, hence facing the exact same competition, while getting that good Corsi%."

    Again, context IS everything.

    Semin & BMo were together for 15% of 5v5 CORSI events - almost half of what Semin was with for Ovechkin and Backstrom individually.

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  6. Hmm, I stand corrected on RATING. I thought it adjusted based on QualComp and QualTeam. I'll have to double check.

    Regression to the mean does apply, but overall we have no idea where the mean may be for MP.

    About the Corsi rates--I thought I referenced Corsi%, Semin w/ Morrison. I'm not really understanding what you're saying, then. I assume Semin played similar competition all season, while Morrison moved from Semin-competition to 3rd and 4th line competition. Anyways, I don't see the issue. They faced different competition on the whole, but I was specifically referencing their time together. That's it.

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  7. "Regression to the mean does apply, but overall we have no idea where the mean may be for MP."

    Correct, but, we know that it is LOWER than where he is now. How much lower is up to calculation.

    Re: Semin & BMo --

    It's true that when they played TOGETHER they played against exact same competition.

    However, APART, BMo played against worse competition. So my point: Is the "extra chemistry" in CORSI a result of Semin playing down to BMo's level, or is it "true" chemistry when BMo is brought UP to Semin's level.

    No way to know using Behind the Net or Vic's script.

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  8. "Correct, but, we know that it is LOWER than where he is now. How much lower is up to calculation."

    Do we? If you could explain how we know it's lower, that would be nice. It seems like there's not enough of a sample size to definitively say, and there are players who post consistently good numbers even as they move up levels (like Green).

    "However, APART, BMo played against worse competition. So my point: Is the "extra chemistry" in CORSI a result of Semin playing down to BMo's level, or is it "true" chemistry when BMo is brought UP to Semin's level."

    I'm not sure what you're saying. Morrison was 15% better with Semin than without. Semin was 8% better with Morrison than without. That second margin was only exceeded by Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin.
    I dunno, maybe it's semantics. When two guys playing together exceed my expectations, I generally call it chemistry (like Fleischmann/Fehr and this year's Olympics with Backstrom-Eriksson-Alfredsson). That's what it seems like with Morrison and Semin.

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