Saturday, September 11, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Eric Fehr

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night, and linemates are only those listed at 10% or greater. Today, Eric Fehr)

Eric Fehr: age 25, 6'4", 212 pounds, shoots right.
Contract: $2.2 million, RFA in 2013, per Capgeek.
2009-2010 linemates: 24% Jason Chimera and Brendan Morrison
2010 playoff linemates: 28% Brooks Laich and Brendan Morrison, 25% Eric Belanger and Jason Chimera

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 69 GP, 21-18-39, +18, 145 shots, 24 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 3-1-4. +2, 20 shots, 4 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 11th in Corsi QoC, 9th in Corsi Rel QoC, 12th in Corsi QoT, and 16th (of 17) in Corsi Rel QoT. Zonestart 53.6% offensive zone (middling) with Zonefinish 53.2% offensive zone (fourth).
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 12th (third-to-last) in Corsi QoC, 11th in Corsi Rel QoC, 13th in Corsi QoT, and 10th in Corsi Rel QoT.

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Nine Years

Friday, September 10, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: John Erskine

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, John Erskine)

John Erskine age 30, 6'4", 216 pounds, shoots left.
Contract: $1.5 million, UFA in 2011 per Capgeek.
2009-2010 linemates: 32% Brian Pothier, 23% Tom Poti, 14% Karl Alzner

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 50 GP, 1-5-6, +16, 50 shots, 66 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 8th in Corsi QoC, 6th in Corsi Rel QoC, 7th in Corsi QoT, and 8th (second-to-last) in Corsi Rel QoT. Zonestart 48.6% offensive zone (6th) with Zonefinish 49.8% offensive zone (5th).


(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Thursday, September 9, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Sean Collins

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--from today on, forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Sean Collins)
(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Sean Collins: age 26, 6'1", 212 pounds, shoots right.
Contract: $650k, UFA in 2011, per Capgeek.

2009-2010 raw stats:
AHL: 63 GP, 1-17-18, +26, 46 shots, 55 PIM
Playoffs: 15 GP, 1-2-3, +2, 7 shots, 16 PIM


Wednesday, September 8, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Jason Chimera

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position--from today on, forward, defense, or goalie--in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Jason Chimera)


Jason Chimera: age 31, 6'2", 216 pounds, shoots left.
Contract: $1.875 million, UFA in 2013, per Capgeek.
2009-2010 linemates: 41% Eric Fehr and Brendan Morrison
2010 playoff linemates: 30% Matt Bradley and Boyd Gordon, 24% Eric Belanger and Eric Fehr, 15% Eric Belanger and Matt Bradley

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 39 GP, 7-10-17, +6, 68 shots, 51 PIM (Capitals); 78 GP, 15-19-34, -1, 160 shots, 98 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 1-2-3, +2, 15 shots, 2 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC, 1st in Corsi Rel QoC, second-to-last in Corsi QoT, and fourth-to-last (of 17) in Corsi Rel QoT. Zonestart 47.0% offensive zone (thirteenth, fifth-to-last) with Zonefinish 50.5% offensive zone (middling).
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 6th in Corsi QoC, 7th in Corsi Rel QoC, 9th in Corsi QoT, and 8th in Corsi Rel QoT (all middling).

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: John Carlson

(During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, John Carlson)

John Carlson: age 20, 6'2", 218 pounds, shoots right.

Contract: $846k, RFA in 2012

2009-2010 linemates: 54% Shaone Morrisonn, 12% John Erskine, 12% Tom Poti
2010 playoff linemates: 60% Tom Poti

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 22 GP, 1-5-6, +11, 21 shots, 8 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 1-3-4, +6, 14 shots, 0 PIM
AHL: 48 GP, 4-35-39, +37,  100 shots, 26 PIM
Playoffs: 13 GP, 2-5-7, +7, 34 shots, 8 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC, 9th (last) in Corsi Rel QoC, 6th in Corsi QoT, and 6th in Corsi Rel QoT. Zonestart 48.6% offensive zone (tied for second-to-last), Zonefinish 51.2% offensive zone.
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 6th in Corsi QoC and Corsi Rel QoC, 7th (second-to-last) in Corsi QoT, and 7th in Corsi Rel QoT.

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Monday, September 6, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Eric Belanger

During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Eric Belanger)

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Eric Belanger: age 32, 6'0", 185 pounds, shoots left.
Contract: $1.85 million, UFA in 2011. Although he's officially a free agent, James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail stated he is 100% certain that Belanger will be signed by the Capitals.
2009-2010 linemates: 23% Brooks Laich and Alexander Semin, 12% Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr, 11% Eric Fehr and Tomas Fleischmann
2010 playoff linemates: 22% Tomas Fleischmann and Alexander Semin, 21% Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr, 14% Matt Bradley and Jason Chimera

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 17 GP, 2-4-6, +3, 31 shots, 4 PIM (Capitals); 77 GP, 15-26-41, +2, 151 shots, 32 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 0-1-1, +0, 6 shots, 4 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC, 2nd in Corsi Rel QoC, 10th (last) in Corsi QoT, and 4th in Corsi Rel QoT. Zonestart 44.4% offensive zone (second-to-last) with Zonefinish 46.3% offensive zone (second-to-last).
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC, 1st in Corsi Rel QoC, 5th (second-to-last) in Corsi QoT, and 4th in Corsi Rel QoT.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Comparing the Red Wings' Model and the Capitals

This morning, I had an interesting idea.

The Capitals are starting to look like the Red Wings.

It seems weird--I mean, where is Datsyuk, where is Lidstrom, where is Babcock (sorry Boudreau)? The Capitals have zero "winning" experience at an NHL level outside of Mike Knuble, they don't have a Scandinavian-laden roster, but just looking at defensemen, I think the Capitals are moving towards Detroit.

Back towards the start of the millennium the Red Wings organization was coming to a crossroads of sorts. Steve Yzerman was approaching retirement, Russians like Sergei Fedorov, Vyacheslav Kozlov, and Igor Larionov were approaching the ends of their Detroit careers, and veterans like Luc Robataille, Brendan Shanahan, and Brett Hull were reaching the end of the line in Detroit as well, especially after Detroit's 2002 Stanley Cup championship. Ken Holland and the Red Wings decided to cash their chips behind their defense corps, led by 2002 Norris and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Nicklas Lidstrom. With their strong defense, and some diamonds it picked up late in the entry draft in Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit continues to be a force.

How are the Capitals becoming like the Red Wings? Well, as I was fantasizing thinking about the sky-high collective potential of Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson, I realized that all of them pass well. A large part of Detroit's game plan is having mobile, puck-moving defensemen. Now, the Capitals might just have five different defensemen able to make an effective first pass (adding in Tom Poti). The Detroit method of playing defense, as it seems to me--cutting off the other team's attack in the neutral zone by beating them to the puck, then making a tape-to-tape pass, and regrouping for another attack--helps Detroit have staggering Corsi numbers year after year, and I think that with these five defensemen anchoring the blueline we could see more of that.

Of course, Detroit also found or developed many defensively-responsible forwards, and the Capitals, outside of Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble, Boyd Gordon, Alexander Semin, and Eric Fehr, have yet to find that.

Because Detroit's attack is anchored with the defensemen, they can afford to go power-versus-power, knowing that their superior defensive depth helps them gain the advantage over the other team's respective line. The Capitals can match most, if not all, teams with depth up front, and defensively they will always have personnel on ice who can aid in the attack and cut off the other team's attack. In previous years, power-versus-power line matching could prove disastrous for Washington because its top line could get hemmed in the defensive zone if, say, Tyler Sloan and John Erskine were on the ice. Now, with players who can effectively cut off the other team's attack before it starts and win races to loose pucks along the boards, power-versus-power, I believe, can beat anyone.

With a good second-line center, line-for-line the Capitals are stronger than any other team up front. The defense corps doesn't look like the type to allow cycling and zone time against. Power-versus-power, like Detroit uses, like San Jose switched to this season in making the Western Conference Finals and easily handling these very Red Wings, could be the change Boudreau can now make to take the Capitals deep into the playoffs.

Looking at 2011 UFA Centers

At this point, it looks like the Capitals need a second line center. Here is a quick shopping list for George McPhee. It doesn't include every potential player, though.

Brad Richards--he looks like a great fit for a deadline pickup. With a 90+ point revival last season in Dallas, which is not expected to make the playoffs and is operating on a budget at the moment, I think it's likely that someone will take him from Dallas. He is aware defensively, a veteran presence, Stanley Cup Champion (2004, Tampa Bay), the 2004 Conn Smythe Trophy winner as a second-line center (behind Vincent Lecavalier), and a terrific offensive player too. Yes, please.

Joe Thornton--He won't be leaving San Jose unless the Capitals overpay significantly. No.

Michael Nylander--No.

30 Caps in 30 Days: Matt Bradley

(During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Matt Bradley)

Matt Bradley: age 32, 6'3", 201 pounds, shoots right.

Contract: $1 million, 2011 UFA

2009-2010 linemates: 21% Quintin Laing and David Steckel, 17% Boyd Gordon and David Steckel
2010 playoff linemates: 33% Boyd Gordon and Jason Chimera, 17% Eric Belanger and Jason Chimera, 16% Boyd Gordon and David Steckel

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 77 GP, 10-14-24, +6, 98 shots, 47 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 1-2-3, +2, 8 shots, 2 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC, 1st in Corsi Rel QoC, 2nd in Corsi QoT, and 3rd (second to last) in Corsi Rel QoT (rankings don't include Alexander Semin). All those stats were middling among all Caps forwards.
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC and Corsi Rel QoC, 4th in Corsi QoT, and 3rd in Corsi Rel QoT (again, not including Alexander Semin). His Corsi QoC and Corsi Rel QoC were middling among all Caps forwards; his Corsi QoT was last and his Corsi Rel QoT was second-to-last.

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

What Can You Get For the Salary Cap?

Playing around with Capgeek's Fantasy calculator, I decided to create my "ultimate team" under the salary cap. To not have the luxury of front-loaded low-cap-hit contracts, I used the raw salaries, not the cap hits, on each player's contract for next season. My philosophies are to go cheap on the goalies, to have a minute-munching shutdown second scoring line, to have defensively responsible lower forward lines, to draw lots of penalties, and to have strong puck-moving defensemen to press the attack. I think I made a hybrid Blackhawks '10-Red Wings '08 team.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Jay Beagle

(During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Jay Beagle.)

(Image courtesy Caps Snaps)

Jay Beagle: age 24, 6'1", 208 pounds, shoots right.

Contract: two-way, $513k cap hit, RFA in 2012

2009-2010 linemates: 28% Matt Bradley and David Steckel, 12% Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 7 GP, 1-1-2, -1, 10 shots, 2 PIM

AHL: 66 GP, 16-19-35, +10,  98 shots, 25 PIM
Playoffs: 21 GP, 2-7-9, +6, 26 shots, 0 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 2nd in Corsi QoC, 4th in Corsi Rel QoC, 6th in Corsi QoT, and 7th (second-to-last) in Corsi Rel QoT.

Friday, September 3, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Nicklas Backstrom

(During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Because of college applications, school, and other things, I may not be able to stick to my planned schedule of a-Cap-a-day, but I'll try my best. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Nicklas Backstrom)

Nicklas Backstrom: age 22, 6'1", 210 pounds, shoots left.

Contract: one-way, $6 million, $6.7 million cap hit, UFA in 2020

2009-2010 linemates: 31% Alex Ovechkin and Mike Knuble, 18% Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin
2010 playoff linemates: 53% Alex Ovechkin and Mike Knuble

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 82 GP, 33-68-101, +37, 222 shots, 50 PIM
Playoffs: 7 GP, 5-4-9, +7, 27 shots, 4 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 4th in Corsi QoC, 6th in Corsi Rel QoC, 1st in Corsi QoT, and 1st in Corsi Rel QoT.
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 5th in Corsi QoC, 6th (last) in Corsi Rel QoC, 1st in Corsi QoT, and 1st in Corsi Rel QoT.

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)

Thursday, September 2, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Keith Aucoin

(During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Because of college applications, school, and other things, I may not be able to stick to my planned schedule of a-Cap-a-day, but I'll try my best. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Keith Aucoin)

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)
 
Keith Aucoin: age 31, 5'9", 187 lbs, shoots right.

Contract: one-way, $500,000, 2012 UFA

2009-2010 linemates: 23% Chris Clark and Tomas Fleischmann, 17% Chris Clark and Alexandre Giroux, 12% Chris Clark and Eric Fehr

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 9 GP, 1-4-5, -2, 4 shots, 0 PIM

AHL: 72 GP, 35-71-106, +27,  183 shots, 49 PIM
Playoffs: 21 GP, 2-23-25, +1, 55 shots, 2 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 7th in Corsi QoC, 7th in Corsi Rel QoC, 9th (second-to-last) in Corsi QoT, and 8th in Corsi Rel QoT.


Wednesday, September 1, 2010

30 Caps in 30 Days: Karl Alzner

(During the thirty days of September, I'll be trying to preview the seasons of thirty players currently under contract with the Washington Capitals and who have a good chance of spending some time in red, white, and blue this season. Because of college applications, school, and other things, I may not be able to stick to my planned schedule of a-Cap-a-day, but I'll try my best. Advanced stats are given from behindthenet.ca ranked against other players at the same position, in the same organization, at 5-on-5, unless otherwise noted. Age is on opening night. Today, Karl Alzner)
 
Karl Alzner: age 22, 6'2", 210 pounds, shoots left.

Contract: two-way entry-level, $1.675 million, 2011 RFA

2009-2010 linemates: 33% John Erskine, 16% Shaone Morrisonn, 12% Milan Jurcina
2010 playoff linemates: 74% John Carlson, 10% Mike Green

2009-2010 raw stats:
NHL: 21 GP, 0-5-5, -2, 16 shots, 8 PIM
Playoffs: 1 GP, 0-0-0, +0, 0 shots, 0 PIM
AHL: 56 GP, 3-18-21, +34,  75 shots, 10 PIM
Playoffs: 20 GP, 3-7-10, +7, 35 shots, 4 PIM

2009-2010 advanced stats: 9th (last) in Corsi QoC, 8th in Corsi Rel QoC, 8th in Corsi QoT, and 9th in Corsi Rel QoT.
2010 playoffs advanced stats: 1st in Corsi QoC and Corsi Rel QoC, 4th in Corsi QoT, and 3rd in Corsi Rel QoT.

(Photo courtesy Caps Snaps)