Monday, July 18, 2011

Ovechkin: Three Seasons

Again, "Team" is without Ovechkin on the ice. We see Ovechkin (and Backstrom) with a pretty bad stretch about a quarter of the way through the season, then his Corsi% (along with the team's) pick up during the losing streak, to stay high for the rest of the year. Ovechkin seems to have had a good start to the year, a bad stretch, and then a good stretch from game 50 onward, at 5v5 at least.

I like that Ovechkin's final half of the season was pretty strong here (aside from that blip in the 60s, which coincides with when Backstrom was hurt), but not how that seems to have come at the expense of the rest of the team. I suppose Ovechkin getting the prime offensive ice time is better than, say, Jason Chimera, but I'd like to see the rest of the team at least break even consistently (see "Corsi Off" on behind the net) as they have in previous years.

WOWY, all scores:

Wow (-y). Only four players show up with negative Delta1s (how much better their Corsi% is with Ovechkin than without Ovechkin), and only one has a positive Delta1 under 5%. Seven of the 20 players here have a Delta1 of at least 10%. The "w/Ovechkin" looks pretty stellar across the board, except for Schultz (~50%, "only"). That's odd, considering the next chart.

WOWY, score tied:

Small sample size caveats apply here more than in the previous chart, as score-tied events for Ovechkin comprise ~40% of his data set.

Here, Schultz with Ovechkin clocks in at a solid 54%. Only Erskine, Johansson, and Chimera didn't receive a massive Corsi advantage while playing with Ovechkin. You could our "crazy Russian" (as my friend's father calls Ovechkin) is pretty good.

You heard it here first--Ovechkin will be a finalist for the Hart Trophy next season. His even-strength offense is still solid and with some better luck on the power play he'll contend for the NHL's scoring lead again (more on the power play later this summer). He's not quite as dominant as in prior years, nor is his team quite as dominant in terms of possession, but I think his decline is often overstated. He's still an outstanding player.

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