The blueline going into last year was supposed to be a real strength, between Green, Carlson, Alzner, Hamrlik, and Schultz as the top five. Ditto for this year, except Orlov emerged as a top-four defenseman, too. But with Hamrlik a frequent healthy scratch and claimed off waivers by the Rangers, Orlov only getting back into action in the last week, and Green in and out, this team's "strength" has become a weakness.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Becoming what they wanted to avoid?
Before the 2004 lockout, the Capitals decided that the way they were building their team wasn't working. Washington followed its 1998 run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 1998 with conference finishes (by points) of 12th, 3rd (ECQF loss to Pittsburgh), T-5th (ECQF loss to Pittsburgh), 9th, and 6th (ECQF loss to Tampa Bay).
Major moves made during that time:
Major moves made during that time:
- Summer 1999--signed 33-year-old winger Ulf Dahlen
- 2000-01 season--acquired 22-year-old former first-rounder Dainius Zubrus from Montreal and 30-year-old middle-six wing Trevor Linden from Montreal for 24-year-old winger Richard Zednik (depth scorer) and 22-year-old forward Jan Bulis (who looked like he might become a 2C at some point)
- 2000-01 season--acquired 31-year-old forward Dmitri Khristich (who had declined from top-line form a couple of years earlier) from Toronto for a 3rd rounder
- Summer 2001--traded three prospects (with hindsight, no one significant) for superstar Jaromir Jagr (and a defenseman); signed Jagr to the richest contract in NHL history, at the time (if memory serves)
- Summer 2002--signed Jagr's former teammate in Pittsburgh, 1C Robert Lang
- 2002-03 season--acquired 30-year old 1C Michael Nylander from Chicago for depth (D Andrei Nikolishin and F Chris Simon)
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Pulling the plug
I went to get lunch during the second period of yesterday's 4-1 loss to the Rangers, and I realized something.
During the 2-8-1 start, I blamed having to learn the system. I thought, at their best, the Capitals would dominate zone time.
Then I thought the team was beginning to click and would continue to improve quickly. They were surrendering zone time but not shots, necessarily (a la Rangers), and were generating some offense themselves albeit using many long-range shots (a la Devils).
Then there was this weekend, where I was just hoping for better penalty killing and some breakdowns for the Rangers that would let the Capitals would get a chance.
That's what I ended up hoping for. That the Capitals wouldn't make a mistake and the Rangers would.
That strikes me as Montreal-like, and it's not the way a good team plays.
During the 2-8-1 start, I blamed having to learn the system. I thought, at their best, the Capitals would dominate zone time.
Then I thought the team was beginning to click and would continue to improve quickly. They were surrendering zone time but not shots, necessarily (a la Rangers), and were generating some offense themselves albeit using many long-range shots (a la Devils).
Then there was this weekend, where I was just hoping for better penalty killing and some breakdowns for the Rangers that would let the Capitals would get a chance.
That's what I ended up hoping for. That the Capitals wouldn't make a mistake and the Rangers would.
That strikes me as Montreal-like, and it's not the way a good team plays.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Shots at this point in the season
I was bored last night, so I tried my hand at running the numbers. I think most of these are correct. Note that these are shots, just goals and SOG. Realized only after finishing that I'd forgotten to include misses and blocks.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Thinking about top teams
I was really excited for this season. Adam Oates was preaching a style I liked, and I thought it would be a good fit for this team with its good D corps. Green, Alzner, Carlson, Orlov, and Hamrlik are all capable of passing the puck, which is really important in a high-pressure system--get the puck to the forwards as quickly as possible.
But Orlov has been hurt, Hamrlik a healthy scratch, and Green gets hurt every couple of days, it seems. The D isn't a strength, and the forwards certainly aren't. The roster clearly needs some changes.
Looking at the teams that have been consistently near the top of the standings, I feel like loading up on forwards is the way to go.
Look at Pittsburgh. They had the three center model, now two centers and a wing. They supported them with nice role players--Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, Tyler Kennedy, etc. Their possession game is all about getting the puck out of their zone and up the ice as quickly as possible.
Look at Chicago. That team, since its Cup run, has still been very, very good. (The 2010 team was ridiculous.) The Hawks are built around Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa up front, and Keith and Seabrook on the blueline. Sure, there are other guys in there, too--the speedy Stalberg, Bolland who is sometimes a Malhotra-lite (lots of defensive faceoffs and tough matchups), and some nice young players for depth. But it's still a team built around its star power--a dynamic duo on the first and second lines, and one D that can carry a weaker partner on each of the top two pairs.
Look at Detroit. Lidstrom was their only, truly, great two-way D for a few years. But he could take the tough matchups, and both Datsyuk and Zetterberg can each carry a line. Up front, Filppula, Franzen, and a few others provided some nice support. This team cycles really well, reducing the burden on its D.
Look at Boston. Chara is a great D, Seidenberg is solid, but the rest of their blueline is mediocre-to-bad. But up front, the Bruins are two top lines deep: Lucic-Krejci-Horton and Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand. And Bergeron can handle the tough matchups, meaning easy jobs for the rest of Boston's forwards.
Look at Los Angeles. Kopitar, Brown, and Williams make a good power-versus-power top line, Richards and Carter can be top liners on other teams, and so on. Their D, meanwhile, is good, but really, the standout is Doughty. The rest of the top four--Scuderi, Voynov, Mitchell, perhaps--are 2nd pair guys who have had to move up. Not like Vancouver, which is four top pair D deep.
And the team that LA beat to win the Cup, New Jersey, doesn't exactly have a great blueline either. Zidlicky, Greene, Fayne, Volchenkov, Salvador, and company aren't exactly big names. But they all have their skillsets and they're competent. Throw in the Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk line and the veteran Elias anchoring the second, along with some nice depth players, and you've got a team that, again, is build around forwards with competent, but not outstanding, personnel on the blueline.
To be sure, there are counterexamples. Tampa Bay had a strong top six and crappy D last year and was awful. (Although, considering their blueline is much better this year while the team is not, I'd say issues are more systemic than roster-related.) Philadelphia has been falling off as Timonen ages, Carle left, and Pronger has been out, despite great forward depth. The aforementioned Canucks have great depth at every position thanks to good cap management and coaches and management being on the same page.
But I think in short, the easiest, most reliable way to construct a great possession team--which the Caps haven't been since 08-09, and they haven't even been good since the early part of 11-12, either--is through some star power up front. That will probably require some big trades (e.g. M. Richards, Carter, Neal, Horton) or free agent signings (Hossa) but it can be done.
Round out the blueline with decent defensemen that fit the system, making sure that there's at least one unit that can beat the other team's top line--with Ryan O'Reilly off the market for the next year, this is where Paul Stastny could come in handy, playing with Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson--and you should have what Leonsis planned when he signed Ovechkin to the monster contract: a team that is very good every year, and occasionally elite.
But Orlov has been hurt, Hamrlik a healthy scratch, and Green gets hurt every couple of days, it seems. The D isn't a strength, and the forwards certainly aren't. The roster clearly needs some changes.
Looking at the teams that have been consistently near the top of the standings, I feel like loading up on forwards is the way to go.
Look at Pittsburgh. They had the three center model, now two centers and a wing. They supported them with nice role players--Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, Tyler Kennedy, etc. Their possession game is all about getting the puck out of their zone and up the ice as quickly as possible.
Look at Chicago. That team, since its Cup run, has still been very, very good. (The 2010 team was ridiculous.) The Hawks are built around Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa up front, and Keith and Seabrook on the blueline. Sure, there are other guys in there, too--the speedy Stalberg, Bolland who is sometimes a Malhotra-lite (lots of defensive faceoffs and tough matchups), and some nice young players for depth. But it's still a team built around its star power--a dynamic duo on the first and second lines, and one D that can carry a weaker partner on each of the top two pairs.
Look at Detroit. Lidstrom was their only, truly, great two-way D for a few years. But he could take the tough matchups, and both Datsyuk and Zetterberg can each carry a line. Up front, Filppula, Franzen, and a few others provided some nice support. This team cycles really well, reducing the burden on its D.
Look at Boston. Chara is a great D, Seidenberg is solid, but the rest of their blueline is mediocre-to-bad. But up front, the Bruins are two top lines deep: Lucic-Krejci-Horton and Seguin-Bergeron-Marchand. And Bergeron can handle the tough matchups, meaning easy jobs for the rest of Boston's forwards.
Look at Los Angeles. Kopitar, Brown, and Williams make a good power-versus-power top line, Richards and Carter can be top liners on other teams, and so on. Their D, meanwhile, is good, but really, the standout is Doughty. The rest of the top four--Scuderi, Voynov, Mitchell, perhaps--are 2nd pair guys who have had to move up. Not like Vancouver, which is four top pair D deep.
And the team that LA beat to win the Cup, New Jersey, doesn't exactly have a great blueline either. Zidlicky, Greene, Fayne, Volchenkov, Salvador, and company aren't exactly big names. But they all have their skillsets and they're competent. Throw in the Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk line and the veteran Elias anchoring the second, along with some nice depth players, and you've got a team that, again, is build around forwards with competent, but not outstanding, personnel on the blueline.
To be sure, there are counterexamples. Tampa Bay had a strong top six and crappy D last year and was awful. (Although, considering their blueline is much better this year while the team is not, I'd say issues are more systemic than roster-related.) Philadelphia has been falling off as Timonen ages, Carle left, and Pronger has been out, despite great forward depth. The aforementioned Canucks have great depth at every position thanks to good cap management and coaches and management being on the same page.
But I think in short, the easiest, most reliable way to construct a great possession team--which the Caps haven't been since 08-09, and they haven't even been good since the early part of 11-12, either--is through some star power up front. That will probably require some big trades (e.g. M. Richards, Carter, Neal, Horton) or free agent signings (Hossa) but it can be done.
Round out the blueline with decent defensemen that fit the system, making sure that there's at least one unit that can beat the other team's top line--with Ryan O'Reilly off the market for the next year, this is where Paul Stastny could come in handy, playing with Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson--and you should have what Leonsis planned when he signed Ovechkin to the monster contract: a team that is very good every year, and occasionally elite.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Tanking...meh
I'm unsure about this tanking idea for the Caps.
It makes pretty intuitive sense. They have a slim shot at the playoffs, needing to play at a 100-110 pt pace the rest of the way (probably), and given that they've only had about six weeks with this system and are still working on it, well, I'm not super optimistic they'll play like a top seed from here on out.
Even if they do make the playoffs, if they don't win the division--Carolina is pretty good, after all--they'll end up as a 6/7/8 seed. I see two legit contenders in the East, Pittsburgh and Boston. So the reward for that run to the postseason, last playoffs notwithstanding, is a likely first-round exit.
Edit: after the win over Carolina, a division title is a little more likely. Regardless, though, I doubt the team will be this far down the standings with less than 30 games to go regularly. The circumstances necessary for a good team to even consider tanking don't come around all the time. This season, they have.
So why not tank for a draft pick? Grab one of the top six--Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin appear to be the best prospects since John Tavares, while Elias Lindholm, projected in the 4-6 range, is putting up Backstrom-level numbers in the SEL--and it seems like you've added someone who can step into the lineup within two years and be a top-six forward or top-four D, with elite upside.
So say the Capitals opt for that path and try to tank. What has to happen?
Well, they've been playing better lately. That needs to stop. So do we ask the team to just stop learning the system and freelance or trap like it's in style? That is, ask the players to play bad hockey on purpose. That defeats the purpose of tanking--the draft pick would help for the future, but erasing the progress of the last six weeks does not.
Do we get rid of talent? The idea is to make a roster so bad that even if it executes its system well, it simply can't match up to NHL teams. Ribeiro is an easy trade option and should be able to fetch a first-round pick. After that...you're not trading Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich, Carlson, Alzner, Orlov, or Holtby. Aside from maybe Johansson, Neuvirth, and Brouwer, no one else is going to fetch anything worthwhile on their own. I think this roster, minus Ribeiro, still is good enough to end up in 9th or 10th, maybe just two or three points back of where it would be with Ribeiro.
You could package the depth together and trade it away en masse, but that's a bad idea. The 3rd and 4th lines and the 3rd pair (when the D is healthy) are real strong suits on this team. Trading away guys from those lines means you have to rebuild them this summer, probably with overpriced UFAs. It's not worth it.
The only other option I can think of is to hope players get injured and place them on IR for the rest of the season. That could work. Start with Green the next time he gets hurt, let Laich and Orlov stay out, and if both goalies get hurt, fantastic. But that's a longshot, I think. As long as Ovechkin, Backstrom, one goalie, and Carlzner are healthy, I don't see injuries being enough of an issue to keep this team at the bottom of the standings.
As currently constructed, I'd say the team is very likely to end the season around the playoff border, either just in or just out. Just out means poor draft position, just in means that and getting destroyed by one the two true contenders in the East (Pittsburgh and Boston...I'm not a believer in NJ and NYR), unless Washington takes the division.
I think the best course of action is to accumulate picks for this season. Quantity over quality. Get a first for Ribeiro, see what you can get for Neuvirth, Johansson, Hamrlik, and Schultz, as well as others who you don't see fitting Oates' system. Four or five picks in the first two rounds gives McPhee some nice assets to use at the draft.
And make a hard push for Ryan O'Reilly--he's a better player than everyone on this team save Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Carlson if his head is in the game. (Carlson's contract is a huge plus in his favor, too, compared to O'Reilly, who's asking for closer to market price.) Trade for him, give him what he wants, and suddenly you have the best 1-2 punch down the middle outside of Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. Maybe you have something like this (via Capgeek):
FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.500m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Cheap and skilled, a la Wolski / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Filip Forsberg ($1.492m)
Fast, gritty 4LW / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Fast, gritty 4RW
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.500m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.800m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m) / Cameron Schilling ($1.775m)
John Erskine ($1.963m)
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $60,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,934,295; BONUSES: $1,710,000
CAP SPACE (18-man roster): $6,775,705
-->traded Laich and Johansson (plus picks, maybe) for rights to O'Reilly.
It makes pretty intuitive sense. They have a slim shot at the playoffs, needing to play at a 100-110 pt pace the rest of the way (probably), and given that they've only had about six weeks with this system and are still working on it, well, I'm not super optimistic they'll play like a top seed from here on out.
Even if they do make the playoffs, if they don't win the division--Carolina is pretty good, after all--they'll end up as a 6/7/8 seed. I see two legit contenders in the East, Pittsburgh and Boston. So the reward for that run to the postseason, last playoffs notwithstanding, is a likely first-round exit.
Edit: after the win over Carolina, a division title is a little more likely. Regardless, though, I doubt the team will be this far down the standings with less than 30 games to go regularly. The circumstances necessary for a good team to even consider tanking don't come around all the time. This season, they have.
So why not tank for a draft pick? Grab one of the top six--Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin appear to be the best prospects since John Tavares, while Elias Lindholm, projected in the 4-6 range, is putting up Backstrom-level numbers in the SEL--and it seems like you've added someone who can step into the lineup within two years and be a top-six forward or top-four D, with elite upside.
So say the Capitals opt for that path and try to tank. What has to happen?
Well, they've been playing better lately. That needs to stop. So do we ask the team to just stop learning the system and freelance or trap like it's in style? That is, ask the players to play bad hockey on purpose. That defeats the purpose of tanking--the draft pick would help for the future, but erasing the progress of the last six weeks does not.
Do we get rid of talent? The idea is to make a roster so bad that even if it executes its system well, it simply can't match up to NHL teams. Ribeiro is an easy trade option and should be able to fetch a first-round pick. After that...you're not trading Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich, Carlson, Alzner, Orlov, or Holtby. Aside from maybe Johansson, Neuvirth, and Brouwer, no one else is going to fetch anything worthwhile on their own. I think this roster, minus Ribeiro, still is good enough to end up in 9th or 10th, maybe just two or three points back of where it would be with Ribeiro.
You could package the depth together and trade it away en masse, but that's a bad idea. The 3rd and 4th lines and the 3rd pair (when the D is healthy) are real strong suits on this team. Trading away guys from those lines means you have to rebuild them this summer, probably with overpriced UFAs. It's not worth it.
The only other option I can think of is to hope players get injured and place them on IR for the rest of the season. That could work. Start with Green the next time he gets hurt, let Laich and Orlov stay out, and if both goalies get hurt, fantastic. But that's a longshot, I think. As long as Ovechkin, Backstrom, one goalie, and Carlzner are healthy, I don't see injuries being enough of an issue to keep this team at the bottom of the standings.
As currently constructed, I'd say the team is very likely to end the season around the playoff border, either just in or just out. Just out means poor draft position, just in means that and getting destroyed by one the two true contenders in the East (Pittsburgh and Boston...I'm not a believer in NJ and NYR), unless Washington takes the division.
I think the best course of action is to accumulate picks for this season. Quantity over quality. Get a first for Ribeiro, see what you can get for Neuvirth, Johansson, Hamrlik, and Schultz, as well as others who you don't see fitting Oates' system. Four or five picks in the first two rounds gives McPhee some nice assets to use at the draft.
And make a hard push for Ryan O'Reilly--he's a better player than everyone on this team save Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Carlson if his head is in the game. (Carlson's contract is a huge plus in his favor, too, compared to O'Reilly, who's asking for closer to market price.) Trade for him, give him what he wants, and suddenly you have the best 1-2 punch down the middle outside of Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. Maybe you have something like this (via Capgeek):
FORWARDS
Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.500m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Cheap and skilled, a la Wolski / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Filip Forsberg ($1.492m)
Fast, gritty 4LW / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Fast, gritty 4RW
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.500m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.800m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Dmitry Orlov ($0.900m) / Cameron Schilling ($1.775m)
John Erskine ($1.963m)
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $60,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,934,295; BONUSES: $1,710,000
CAP SPACE (18-man roster): $6,775,705
-->traded Laich and Johansson (plus picks, maybe) for rights to O'Reilly.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Thoughts on the first weekend
Two days' worth of games in the books.
- The Rangers did not look good against Boston (and I'm guessing they didn't look good against Pittsburgh, either). Of course, they looked like a good team, but for a team laced with Stanley Cup expectations, they spent too much time chasing the puck. I still felt like John Tortorella was holding them back. There's no point in bringing in creative players like Brad Richards and Rick Nash if they have to play within a system everywhere they go on the ice. And that defensive zone strategy...I think they'd be better served to be more aggressive and try to win the possession battle. They still struck me as a team that is reactive rather than proactive (like New Jersey, Los Angeles, or St. Louis), and I don't think that's going to get it done.
- Every team needs to copy Philadelphia's strategy to play against Pittsburgh. Rivalry aside, there's more that the Flyers do to get Pittsburgh off its game. They forecheck aggressively and force the Penguins' defensemen to make quick choices. Since only Letang is capable of making good, quick choices, it works. I guess Shero and Bylsma have tried to cover up that flaw by exclusively icing defensemen that are pretty mobile, but Philly has got a pretty up-tempo forward corps, so I guess that's their effective counter. (Also, crashing the net and matching Giroux to Crosby seems helpful.)
- It seems like if you don't play the Blues exactly the right way, they dominate. It was stunning to see them dominate the shot clock like they did against Detroit, though, because, well, the Red Wings are known for possession as well. (St. Louis also did that against Washington last season.)
- It's nice to see the Sharks and Blackhawks get off on the right foot. I think they were both pretty underrated heading into the year (San Jose more than Chicago).
- When did Cory Schneider become the starter for Vancouver? If memory serves, he started one game in the playoffs last year, and over the summer (when Vancouver didn't make any goalie changes) he somehow supplants Roberto Luongo? I'm not referring here to Alain Vigneault's choice to start Schneider against Anaheim, but at the media's willingness to play along. Schneider is as much a starter as Holtby is.
- Washington should not really be in 50/50 games with Tampa Bay. It's one thing when you play a little better than your opponent and sometimes lose because the shots don't go in or the other goalie plays well. It's another when your caliber of play fluctuates as well. I didn't like what I saw of that game, especially from the top line. It wasn't awful, but I expected better. Hopefully the next game follows the expected script a little better.
- How soon will Tomas Kundratek get a call-up?
Sunday, January 13, 2013
30 Expectations for the 2013 season
1. At least one postseason "lock" (Chicago, Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Jose, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Boston) will miss the playoffs.
2. Evgeni Malkin will not be a Hart finalist. Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby will be.
3. Dan Bylsma starts Tomas Vokoun at least 25 times between the regular season and playoffs, helping the Penguins to win the President's Trophy.
4. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom both finish over a point-per-game and Braden Holtby wins the starting goalie job as the Capitals win the Southeast, which is the East's best division.
5. None of the mainstream rookies (Jonathan Huberdeau, Nail Yakupov, Vladimir Tarasenko, Mikael Granlund, Justin Schultz) win the Calder Trophy.
2. Evgeni Malkin will not be a Hart finalist. Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby will be.
3. Dan Bylsma starts Tomas Vokoun at least 25 times between the regular season and playoffs, helping the Penguins to win the President's Trophy.
4. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom both finish over a point-per-game and Braden Holtby wins the starting goalie job as the Capitals win the Southeast, which is the East's best division.
5. None of the mainstream rookies (Jonathan Huberdeau, Nail Yakupov, Vladimir Tarasenko, Mikael Granlund, Justin Schultz) win the Calder Trophy.
Monday, August 27, 2012
More summer thoughts
Calder race
The Calder race should be interesting. While NY scrutiny probably has led to Chris Kreider becoming the preseason favorite, I think he's one of the longer shots among players "on the radar." I'm guessing it'll take more than 20 goals and 50 points to win it. Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and Ryan Callahan I'm sure will hit that mark (if healthy), and Derek Stepan seems like a decent bet. Six 20-50 players is an awful lot. Don't think Kreider makes it.
So which other forwards are out there?
The Calder race should be interesting. While NY scrutiny probably has led to Chris Kreider becoming the preseason favorite, I think he's one of the longer shots among players "on the radar." I'm guessing it'll take more than 20 goals and 50 points to win it. Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, and Ryan Callahan I'm sure will hit that mark (if healthy), and Derek Stepan seems like a decent bet. Six 20-50 players is an awful lot. Don't think Kreider makes it.
So which other forwards are out there?
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Monday, August 6, 2012
An Island of Misfit Toys
I haven't seen anyone actually try to create Marc Crawford's idea of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
I'm considering the guys criticized for intangibles and consistency, of course, but also those who are massively undervalued (often because being overpaid is equated with being flat-out bad). I'll admit there's plenty of guesswork since I'm not exactly dialed into what GMs think, so I'll go off what I hear in the media and around the internet.
I'll also include guys who are still FA (except Shane Doan).
I'm considering the guys criticized for intangibles and consistency, of course, but also those who are massively undervalued (often because being overpaid is equated with being flat-out bad). I'll admit there's plenty of guesswork since I'm not exactly dialed into what GMs think, so I'll go off what I hear in the media and around the internet.
I'll also include guys who are still FA (except Shane Doan).
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Summer thoughts
Dominic Moore. I think the optimal line combinations for this team have Laich on Ribeiro's wing. Ribeiro doesn't put up giant relative plus-minus ratings, which means that for all the offense he gets you, well, he gives a lot of it back at the other end. I think a huge reason why Laich looked so good in 10-11 was being able to do what he does best--play defense, get the puck, and then speed into the play--and leave the possession game over the rest of the ice to Semin and Carlzner.
I don't think Ribeiro is as good a 5v5 complement to Laich as Semin was in 10-11 (or good at fives, period, for that matter), but Ribeiro and a guy like Wolski and Chimera plus the D support could easily be better support than Semin, the possession zero 2C of the day, and young Carlzner. But without Laich, I think that line could be dangerously close to being a liability on the ice, scoring a lot but being outscored themselves. Ribeiro is not getting any younger, after all.
That's where Dominic Moore can help. He can play the same role Laich did last year (taking a little less ice time in all situations, though). He can push Laich up the depth chart, into a role where he's the only defensive specialist and not the only capable forward offensively (like he was with Ward and Chimera).
You could do worse than Brooks Laich at 3C. But I think overall, Moore at 3C and Laich at 2LW is better than, say, Chimera at 2LW and Laich at 3C.
I don't think McPhee is looking to add a forward, given that the team has 13 already and has largely been adding depth. But if you add Moore and trade a fourth-liner for something like "future considerations," well, I'd call that a net win.
I don't think Ribeiro is as good a 5v5 complement to Laich as Semin was in 10-11 (or good at fives, period, for that matter), but Ribeiro and a guy like Wolski and Chimera plus the D support could easily be better support than Semin, the possession zero 2C of the day, and young Carlzner. But without Laich, I think that line could be dangerously close to being a liability on the ice, scoring a lot but being outscored themselves. Ribeiro is not getting any younger, after all.
That's where Dominic Moore can help. He can play the same role Laich did last year (taking a little less ice time in all situations, though). He can push Laich up the depth chart, into a role where he's the only defensive specialist and not the only capable forward offensively (like he was with Ward and Chimera).
You could do worse than Brooks Laich at 3C. But I think overall, Moore at 3C and Laich at 2LW is better than, say, Chimera at 2LW and Laich at 3C.
I don't think McPhee is looking to add a forward, given that the team has 13 already and has largely been adding depth. But if you add Moore and trade a fourth-liner for something like "future considerations," well, I'd call that a net win.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Alex Ovechkin's assists
Ovechkin's assist totals: 54, 26, 47, 54, 59, 53, 27. At ES, 23, 25, 32, 27, 36, 36, 17. Over the last five years in ES primary assists/60, that goes .97, .81, 1.30, 1.08, 0.39. I'm skeptical Ovechkin took such a big step backward in his play that he "deserved" to lose about half of his ES assists. In other words, I think 27 assists is a severe underestimate of his "true talent" for the 2011-2012 season.
Given that differences from ~league average in on-ice shooting percentage, outside of the exceptional cases, stem from a player's individual shot location, not the shot location of his linemates, and given Ovechkin shot 10.9% at fives himself but as a team he got 8.75% on-ice shooting, it might be worthwhile to see just how well his support was converting, and whether that rate is egregiously low or high.
Given that differences from ~league average in on-ice shooting percentage, outside of the exceptional cases, stem from a player's individual shot location, not the shot location of his linemates, and given Ovechkin shot 10.9% at fives himself but as a team he got 8.75% on-ice shooting, it might be worthwhile to see just how well his support was converting, and whether that rate is egregiously low or high.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Thoughts on Ribeiro
It'll be interesting to see how the Capitals do with a center who can put up some solid offensive numbers.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Snepsts Caps projections
Rob Vollman released the Snepsts projections for next season. Snepsts uses era-adjusted statistics (including GVT) to find close comparables to the player in question and uses those comparables' performance to set the bar for the current player. It's along the same lines as Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA (which is the hockey version of baseball's PECOTA), but sacrifices sample size for accuracy.
Here's what it projects for next season. All figures are rounded. The information after the goals-assists-points totals are Snepsts' closest comparable found and the year of that comparable performance.
Ovechkin: 31-37-68 (Heatley 2009)
Backstrom: 21-49-70 (Juneau 1994)
Laich: 16-24-41 (Bourne 1984)
Johansson: 12-20-33 (Zanussi 1980)
Perreault: 18-20-38 (Lacroix 1997)
Chimera: 12-14-26 (Zamuner 2001)
Hendricks: 6-14-20 (Podein 1999)
Ward: 9-16-25 (Cooke 2008)
Brouwer: 17-18-35 (Lindgren 2000)
Beagle: 3-5-8 (Boll 2011)
Green: 8-19-26 (B. Stuart 2007)
Carlson: 9-27-36 (B. Stuart 2003)
Alzner: 3-10-13 (Doak 1972)
Hamrlik: 4-14-18 (Lumme 2002)
Erskine: 2-6-18 (Huscroft 1997)
Schultz: 3-10-13 (Houda 1990)
Crosby: 51-76-127
Malkin: 36-48-84
Stamkos: 43-49-93
The total of the 10 forwards and six defensemen comes out to 174 goals. That's barely 2 goals a game. Luckily, I think there are some underestimates here:
Green--each "comparable" has a "sim" score, which denotes how close the match is (smaller is better). While most players had a match with a sim score in single digits, Green did not. I think it's fair to think he produces at least a handful more goals than the eight here.
Ovechkin--I'm optimistic. I think he hits 35 regardless of coach, thanks to an improved power play, and with a good coach hits 40. There's another handful or so. Ovechkin was another player who didn't exactly have a close comparable, like Green. Given that coaching likely deflated Ovechkin's numbers, I think the search registered worse comparables than he deserved (which is saying something, considering the comparables include Heatley, Kariya, Robataille, Hawerchuk, Nilsson, and Tkachuk).
Johansson--the kid has shown so much scoring ability already, and he's not even strong.
I suppose I should also mention what I think are overestimates (excluding players in the single digits):
Perreault--he won't shoot over 20% again.
Luckily, that's it.
Add that up and we have 180-185 or so. Short of adding two 30-goal scorers, this picture makes the team's offense next season seem destined to crave mediocrity. I think it's fair to guess this team adds ~30 goals scored from free agency (speaking of raw production, not GVT here: that's three third liners). That brings us up to 215, which would have ranked 15th this season, three fewer than the real Caps scored (that seems better when you consider Semin isn't counted here).
McPhee had better hit a home run with this new coach. If the coach can be worth 30 goals or so, suddenly you're looking at 240 goals and a top-5 offense. It doesn't have to just come at even strength--take the Caps from 26th to 8th in power play goals for and you've improved the offense by nine goals, vaulting it into the top ten. Throw in a couple of shorthanded goals and ten more even strength goals and you're almost into the top-5. Small improvements in multiple facets of the game should do the trick.
If the goalies hold up their end of the bargain and there are no Green- or Backstrom-esque injuries again, this team looks to be in decent shape for next year. Yes, there are significant roster holes to fill, there is no coach, and the pipeline will not produce another impact NHL talent for a couple of years minimum (unless Grigorenko falls all the way to 11th). But before being great, teams generally have to hit the "good" threshold, and McPhee should be able to do that pretty easily. That won't satisfy me, but it will keep me watching since a "good" team can be a single (albeit major) move away from becoming elite.
Here's what it projects for next season. All figures are rounded. The information after the goals-assists-points totals are Snepsts' closest comparable found and the year of that comparable performance.
Ovechkin: 31-37-68 (Heatley 2009)
Backstrom: 21-49-70 (Juneau 1994)
Laich: 16-24-41 (Bourne 1984)
Johansson: 12-20-33 (Zanussi 1980)
Perreault: 18-20-38 (Lacroix 1997)
Chimera: 12-14-26 (Zamuner 2001)
Hendricks: 6-14-20 (Podein 1999)
Ward: 9-16-25 (Cooke 2008)
Brouwer: 17-18-35 (Lindgren 2000)
Beagle: 3-5-8 (Boll 2011)
Green: 8-19-26 (B. Stuart 2007)
Carlson: 9-27-36 (B. Stuart 2003)
Alzner: 3-10-13 (Doak 1972)
Hamrlik: 4-14-18 (Lumme 2002)
Erskine: 2-6-18 (Huscroft 1997)
Schultz: 3-10-13 (Houda 1990)
Crosby: 51-76-127
Malkin: 36-48-84
Stamkos: 43-49-93
The total of the 10 forwards and six defensemen comes out to 174 goals. That's barely 2 goals a game. Luckily, I think there are some underestimates here:
Green--each "comparable" has a "sim" score, which denotes how close the match is (smaller is better). While most players had a match with a sim score in single digits, Green did not. I think it's fair to think he produces at least a handful more goals than the eight here.
Ovechkin--I'm optimistic. I think he hits 35 regardless of coach, thanks to an improved power play, and with a good coach hits 40. There's another handful or so. Ovechkin was another player who didn't exactly have a close comparable, like Green. Given that coaching likely deflated Ovechkin's numbers, I think the search registered worse comparables than he deserved (which is saying something, considering the comparables include Heatley, Kariya, Robataille, Hawerchuk, Nilsson, and Tkachuk).
Johansson--the kid has shown so much scoring ability already, and he's not even strong.
I suppose I should also mention what I think are overestimates (excluding players in the single digits):
Perreault--he won't shoot over 20% again.
Luckily, that's it.
Add that up and we have 180-185 or so. Short of adding two 30-goal scorers, this picture makes the team's offense next season seem destined to crave mediocrity. I think it's fair to guess this team adds ~30 goals scored from free agency (speaking of raw production, not GVT here: that's three third liners). That brings us up to 215, which would have ranked 15th this season, three fewer than the real Caps scored (that seems better when you consider Semin isn't counted here).
McPhee had better hit a home run with this new coach. If the coach can be worth 30 goals or so, suddenly you're looking at 240 goals and a top-5 offense. It doesn't have to just come at even strength--take the Caps from 26th to 8th in power play goals for and you've improved the offense by nine goals, vaulting it into the top ten. Throw in a couple of shorthanded goals and ten more even strength goals and you're almost into the top-5. Small improvements in multiple facets of the game should do the trick.
If the goalies hold up their end of the bargain and there are no Green- or Backstrom-esque injuries again, this team looks to be in decent shape for next year. Yes, there are significant roster holes to fill, there is no coach, and the pipeline will not produce another impact NHL talent for a couple of years minimum (unless Grigorenko falls all the way to 11th). But before being great, teams generally have to hit the "good" threshold, and McPhee should be able to do that pretty easily. That won't satisfy me, but it will keep me watching since a "good" team can be a single (albeit major) move away from becoming elite.
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