I'll review
what I had for the first round as well.
Penguins vs Senators
This could be a really interesting series. The Penguins, although they
ran away with the East in the standings, were less impressive by Fenwick
than in previous years--they didn't even break even with the score
tied, while before they got to ~55% easily...Meanwhile, NYI got better as the year went along, to finish above 52% with the score tied. John Tavares isn't alone on that team...Crosby and Malkin are probably good enough to get past
the possession difference (if there is any at all) with their tremendous
playmaking abilities (i.e. raising shooting%), while Fleury/Vokoun, at
worst, should be able to match Nabokov.
Penguins in 6.
Even though I got the result right, the Islanders skaters were better than I thought. They outplayed Pittsburgh's in four of the six games. (Scoring chances:
Game 1,
Game 2,
Game 3,
Game 4,
Game 5, Game 6.) Trouble is, goaltending on both sides was awful. I guess Fleury/Vokoun technically did match Nabokov, though, so there is that. Regardless, unless Pittsburgh gets better in a hurry--or unless the Islanders truly had a fabulous group of skaters--I think the Penguins are in for an exit once they face another good team.
Speaking of which...
The Canadiens somehow become a top possession
team, and made the playoffs in spite of Price...Ottawa was also surprising...With Erik Karlsson back in the lineup, and with Montreal's
limp to the playoffs after clinching a playoff spot, Ottawa could
suddenly go streaking.
But I'll take the team with home ice and better possession here.
Canadiens in 6.
I didn't think Carey Price (and Peter Budaj) would continue to give Montreal awful netminding, but they did. Possession-wise, I think I got this one right. Check out the scoring chances (tracked by
En Attendant les Nordiques):
Game 1: 30-13 in favor of Montreal (Ottawa wins, 4-2)
Game 2: 23-15 in favor of Montreal (Montreal wins, 3-1)
Game 3: 20-13 in favor of Ottawa (Ottawa wins, 6-1)
Game 4: Tied, 14-14 (Ottawa wins, 3-2 OT)
Game 5: 18-17 in favor of Ottawa (Ottawa wins, 6-1)
If you toss out the blowouts, Montreal really got Halak'ed in two games and lost another 50/50 game. I'm not sure whether Ottawa's skaters were bad (like Pittsburgh's) and benefitted from poor netminding at the other end, or whether Montreal ramped up their game to dominate a solid, not great, possession team in Ottawa. I'm also not sure whether those final three games indicate Ottawa made adjustments and got better as the series went along--maybe Montreal also just came out ridiculously strong in the first two games--or whether that's just a fluke of three games, two of which were blowouts. (For what it's worth,
I asked the guy who compiled that scoring chance data, and he said Ottawa become more competitive thanks to injuries and Montreal imploding when down 2 goals.
I'm also not sure whether to trust the larger sample of shot counts (which had the teams closer to even) than the scoring chances. (The two should converge at some point.)
I sort of feel for underestimating the Islanders, so I'll make it up to myself now. The Senators probably have better goaltending and could be icing a better group of skaters (although a healthy Pens team probably isn't bad--remember, although they didn't break even this year in Fenwick, they had injuries to all their top possession players as well). I'll hope Anderson stays hot.
Senators in 7.
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