tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post8429089083940930012..comments2023-12-25T00:28:45.620-05:00Comments on Red Line Station: The Magical Metro EffectRed Army Linehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-65321821209435758802013-09-19T13:39:15.441-04:002013-09-19T13:39:15.441-04:00I think I covered that point. You replaced Florida...I think I covered that point. You replaced Florida, Tampa, and Winnipeg with teams like Dallas, Nashville, Edmonton, Calgary, Phoenix, and Columbus.<br /><br />Look back at that first table: say that opponents of non-WSH SE teams gain 12 more points than opponents of non-Metro teams (per 82 games). The Caps will lose 18 games against the SE on the schedule, compared to 2013 (per 82)--12 more points per 82 times 18 games = 2.6 points, assuming that the rest of the league is about as good as the non-Caps metro. Two or three points can be huge on the playoff bubble, but I think the consensus is that without realignment, the Caps would be comfortably in the playoffs. Losing three points doesn't push a team from "comfortably in" to "out."<br /><br />It's 82 games. Losing some bad and mediocre teams from 20% of the schedule and instead adding some bad, mediocre, and good teams doesn't change much--the only real difference here is that a handful of easy wins were replaced with a handful of hard wins. (A great team might win three of five games; lottery teams two out of five. Difference = one win = two points.)<br /><br />Remember, over three-fourths of the schedule hasn't changed at all--it's still four games against each Atlantic team, three games against former NE teams, and at least one game against every team in the West, plus three games against Tampa Bay and Florida, five against Carolina, and a second against Winnipeg.<br /><br />Put another way, I looked up the winning% of the Caps' schedule the other day. Their new schedule, using the teams' 2013 records, is about 51%. Using their 2012 records, it's 50%. The last two years, the Caps have had schedules in the 49% range. It's not a huge difference--just a win or two per 100 games.<br /><br />On the playoffs, that's a good point and something that I didn't consider here. I don't think it's a big issue unless the Caps finish in the wild card spot, in which case they either draw a very strong new-Atlantic team like Detroit or Boston, or Pittsburgh.Red Army Linehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10681239971963019297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-19326394143021837582013-09-19T12:15:25.163-04:002013-09-19T12:15:25.163-04:00While we may have only 2 additional games vs. Metr...While we may have only 2 additional games vs. Metro and they are against Columbus, it also appears we have 11 less games vs. Southeast which should hurt us. It's folly to suggest we haven't benefited from being in the SE where the division winner gets one of the top 3 seeds and home ice to boot. The Caps have been insulated to a certain degree and now we're about to find out if they can achieve results on a level playing field (IMO)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9120324700375501235.post-89532940410681180372013-09-09T11:26:45.392-04:002013-09-09T11:26:45.392-04:00Great article. The 'southleast' argument ...Great article. The 'southleast' argument has been abused over the years. Under the old system the Caps only played 8 more games against SE opponents than Atlantic and NE teams... less than 10% of the games. JPQuinn87https://www.blogger.com/profile/16988747442305661767noreply@blogger.com