Wednesday, August 21, 2013

TOIComp Effects, Part 1

When I ran the numbers for TOIComp, I was a little disappointed—but not surprised—that the spread between top and bottom competition (for valuable regulars) was so small. After all, we observe the same thing for Corsi Rel QoC, and differences at the season level in that metric don't appear to appreciably alter players' results. I felt that a similar study on TOIComp would be more work for the same result, but I'll do it anyway (after prompting from @garik16 and @pcunneen19).

Hopefully, there's something interesting in the data this time.

Monday, August 12, 2013

2013 TOIComp leaders

Here are the top 30 skaters by TOIComp. I only included the 609 skaters who played at least 36,000 man-minutes versus forwards—at three forwards per second, this is about 200 5v5 minutes. You can find the complete lists here, and I posted a preliminary version of the code here.
Top 30 vs F:


Rank
Player
F TOIComp
1
Phaneuf
16.58
2
Chara
16.47

Girardi
16.47
4
Z. Michalek
16.41
5
Ladd
16.40
6
Marleau
16.39
7
Zetterberg
16.38
8
B. Gionta
16.37
9
Little
16.36
10
Kulemin
16.35

Plekanec
16.35
12
Wheeler
16.33

Brouwer
16.33
14
Kopecky
16.30
15
Ekman-Larsson
16.29

Dupuis
16.29

Fleischmann
16.29
18
Goc
16.28
19
Bogosian
16.27

Bouwmeester
16.27
21
Pominville
16.26
22
Stepan
16.25

Orpik
16.25
24
Carlson
16.24

Giroux
16.24
26
Backstrom
16.23

Weiss
16.23
28
McDonagh
16.22
29
Datsyuk
16.21

Couture
16.21

The entire spread here is about 20 seconds—not exactly a lot. I'm a little more impressed by the offensive options here, since those guys will get ice time against the low-TOI defensive players when their team is down by a goal, meaning that in their tough minutes, they played an elevated TOIComp.

If you're surprised to see Backstrom here, given my post the other day, note that he still ranks behind Brouwer and Carlson, and he would have ranked behind Brooks Laich, but Laich didn't make the TOI cutoff.

And vs D:


Rank
Player
D TOIComp
1
Giroux
21.10
2
Pominville
21.08
3
St. Louis
21.04

Stamkos
21.04
5
Vanek
21.01
6
Hodgson
20.99
7
Crosby
20.94
8
H. Sedin
20.90

D. Sedin
20.90

Voracek
20.90
11
Bozak
20.89
12
Ovechkin
20.88

Moulson
20.88
14
Kessel
20.85

Malkin
20.85
16
Tavares
20.84
17
E. Staal
20.83

Van Riemsdyk
20.83
19
Hartnell
20.82

Benn
20.82

Perry
20.82
22
Kunitz
20.80
23
Boyes
20.79
24
Duchene
20.77
25
Conacher
20.76

Semin
20.76

Toews
20.76

Burrows
20.76
29
Timonen
20.75

Tlusty
20.75

Saad
20.75

Hossa
20.75

Lots of linemates here—no surprises. The spread is again only about 20 seconds from 1 to 30. A little interesting to see both Crosby and Malkin (I'm guessing that's a result of Malkin taking top opposition with Crosby out).

Friday, August 9, 2013

Caps TOIComp 07-10

In case you missed it, yesterday I broke down TOIComp for the three recent Caps coaches (Boudreau, Hunter, and Oates) to see how they deployed their players. To follow up, I want to look at Glen Hanlon's team in 07-08, followed by Boudreau's habits during the Ovechkin-led Caps' peak.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Caps TOIComp

It took awhile, but I finally got this done. (I'm still tweaking the code, so it'll be a few days before I publish it here.)

A few notes:

a) I calculated TOI/60 by dividing individual 5v5 TOI by team 5v5 TOI (only counting games in which the player played). This differs from Behind the Net's TOI/60, which is 5v5 (and 6v5) TOI per game.
b) The bubble size is total 5v5 TOI this season (well, almost—it's actually the amount of man-seconds played against forwards. Let's just say that this only differs from time on ice when a team does not put three forwards on the ice).
c) Small sample caveats apply to the smaller bubbles, and remember context and line changes and such will play a role.

Red is forwards, blue are D. Hover over a bubble for additional information.