Saturday, February 26, 2011

A Trade Deadline Wish List

Here's a quick list of players I'd like from teams I think could be selling. I tried to keep these targets realistic, and limited my look to two players a team, maximum.

My targets are pretty much all tough minutes or tough-minutes-capable players. All salary information according to Capgeek.

Anaheim: No one.

Dallas: C Tom Wandell and D Nicklas Grossman. Both are pretty young. Grossman,26, should slot nicely as Green's partner and is signed for next year at $1.625 million (UFA). Wandell, 24, is dirt-cheap and signed for next year at $775k (RFA). Sweet.

Los Angeles: LW Alexei Ponikarovsky. He's a UFA at the end of this year, cap hit $3.2 million. He plays tough minutes with bad teammates, unimpressive zonestart, and comes out ahead, with a +1 in penalty differential per 60 to boot. Personally, I'd try to ship Los Angeles Semin and get back Poni and a good pick or prospect (maybe one of their D prospects like Teubert or Voynov). I see the potential here for opposing GM Dean Lombardi to overrate Semin and vastly underrate Ponikarovsky.

Phoenix: LW Lee Stempniak and C Vernon Fiddler catch my eye, and I'd love C Martin Hanzal the most from anyone on this roster, easily. I'm not liking 'em enough (or willing to pay the price, in Hanzal's case) to try and go after them, if I'm GMGM.

San Jose: Pass. C Joe Pavelski, D Dan Boyle, C/W Logan Couture, C Joe Thornton, and C/W Patrick Marleau aren't realistic.

Edmonton: D Ladislav Smid and RW Ales Hemsky. I've written about Hemsky before, and you can read more about Smid here. Smid is an RFA at the end of this season.

Calgary: RW Curtis Glencross. He's a UFA after this season, cap hit $1.2 million, and doesn't get murdered by kind-of-hard minutes with below-average teammates. If the Capitals can re-sign him, he'll be able to play in the top-6 for sure, and given power play time could hit 50 points. And he's only 28.

Vancouver: RW Jannik Hansen. He's RFA after this season, only 24 years old, cap hit $815k. He plays the toughs in Vancouver along with Manny Malhotra and Raffi Torres. His zone start isn't as drastically low as those two's, but neither is his relative Corsi. He looks like he could post 40 points in more favorable conditions, or at least in the 20s to 30s playing toughs. That being said, I doubt Vancouver is selling.

Colorado: C Paul Stastny or C Jay McClement. Both players can play the toughs and come out ahead. McClement is an elite defensive forward, making a little under $1.5 million for this season and next. Stastny is a nearly-point-per-game 1C making $6.6 million for this season and the three seasons thereafter. Stastny could take a king's ransom, but I'd pay it (anyone outside of Carlzner, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Varlavirth, and Kuznetsov). McClement I feel could be had for a steal (if he's available), and there's little doubt he'll be great value on his contract next season.

Minnesota: D Greg Zanon or RW Cal Clutterbuck. Both play moderately hard minutes with below average teammates and ~35% zone starts. Clutterbuck comes out ahead, draws more penalties than he takes, and, more qualitatively, plays with a lot of energy (think "good" Mathieu Perreault), generating plenty of hits despite his size. Zanon is 30 and has a $1.933 million cap hit next season, while Clutterbuck is 23 and carries a $1.4 million cap hit for the two seasons in addition to this one.

Detroit: No one is both attractive and realistic, if you ask me.

Chicago: I'd only ask about Bryan Bickell and Viktor Stalberg, but they both are getting laced with hard zonestarts and tough competition. It's tough to judge how good they are, so I'll pass.

St. Louis: Ehh, maybe Roman Polak, who's RFA after this season and one of their heavy lifters. Because of health issues, though, let's pass on St. Louis.

Nashville: Everyone with desirable contract length (that is, not UFA after this year) is either untouchable or overpaid, pretty much. Pass.

Columbus: This is fugly. All the good players have terrible Corsis or face really easy competition, so I have no idea how to judge their players. Pass.

Boston: I don't think they're selling.

Montreal: I like some of their D, but they're thin already. Pass.

Buffalo: LW Jochen Hecht. Follow the McClement link above--the 33-year-old Hecht is one of the names there, too. He'll carry a $3.525 million cap hit next season, after which he's UFA. He should be able to score 40 points or more playing 2nd-toughs if not 1st-toughs outright, given PP time of course. And maybe Buffalo wants Mathieu Perreault as someone who can see eye-to-eye with Tyler Ennis. Oh, and Philipp Grubauer needs a German buddy.

Toronto: Clarke MacArthur, Nikolai Kulemin, and Mikhail Grabovski are attractive but will no doubt be overpriced, and I like C Tim Brent too but there's little need right now for another Boyd Gordon, especially as a rental.

Ottawa: D Chris Phillips. He's on the decline but is still a legitimate shut-down defenseman. I really want Phillips more for the chance to sign him to his next contract (he'll be UFA in July), so he can bridge the team to, say, Orlov, so I wouldn't give up much. GM Brian Murray would probably want plenty, though.

Philadelphia: I wanted RW Nik Zherdev for free (he was on waivers), but too late for that. Pass.

Pittsburgh: Just stay away from Shero GMGM, stay away...

New Jersey: C Travis Zajac and D Henrik Tallinder probably aren't available, but both are pretty strong players, beating tough minutes (though Tallinder is 32 and is declining).

New York Rangers: I love me some Ryan Callahan, Marc Staal, Brandon Dubinsky, but who am I kidding? They did trade for C/W Wojtek Wolski though. He's likely off the table for that reason but would have been a nice pick-up.

New York Islanders: C Frans Nielsen or C Josh Bailey. Both are defensive studs. Nielsen in particular is a complete steal at $525k for this year and next (UFA after that). Imagine if one of 'em were centering Brooks Laich and Alexander Semin? Bailey is young (still on his ELC) and may very well be off the table, but for a good package I feel Nielsen could be had. (Sidenote: that kid Travis Hamonic, whom the Sportscentre guy mentions in the TSN 2010 WJC highlights as sitting out? Future Norris candidate, book it)

Atlanta: they honestly don't have very good players, at least among the forwards. Pass.

Florida: Stephen Weiss. See the McClement link above, again.

Tampa Bay: Pass. I'd like Lundin or Brewer, but both are UFA after this year, and the latter has a NTC.

Carolina: ...Joe Corvo doesn't look half bad.

Adjusted Corsi

Hopefully third time's the charm. Link. I hid a lot of the data, so you can download and un-hide the relevant columns.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Adjusted Corsi Spreadsheet

Link. I updated it so you can filter by team by going to a different page in the spreadsheet. I used a 40 GP limit, so some teams (like St. Louis) have pretty short lists.

Also: the Sedins aren't looking so hot in this regard. They have 70% zone start this season!

Edit: I made a mistake in calculations (stick tap to the anonymous commenter). I've now fixed the numbers.

Edit2: Or so I thought. I'm finding more mistakes. I think when I revised I left out a column. 

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Corsi Adjusted for Zone Starts

Sorted by adjusted Corsi Rel. If you want to manipulate the data, download from this link.

Tom Wandell, Henrik Zetterberg, and Patrice Bergeron? Monsters. And Jack Johnson, Thomas Vanek, Ilya Kovalchuk, Marcus Johansson? Yikes.

Monday, February 21, 2011

GMGM Do's and Do Not's

As we near the trade deadline (only a few days away now!) and hence the "stretch run," George McPhee is focused on what to do and what not to do. What he does (or does not) will likely play a big role in the outcome of the season for the Capitals. Here's my advice to him and the Capitals' coaches.

Do: hear trade offers for Alexander Semin. See which teams might be interested. And see if you can acquire Ales Hemsky and trade Semin, essentially a lateral move in terms of talent but one which adds $2.5 million in cap room next season.

Do: trade for a second-line center. Marcus Johansson is good, but he's not out-dueling his opposition in all zones of the ice. Mathieu Perreault has...I don't even know what to make of him. I think he'll be a winger in the NHL, not a center. At any rate a line centered by Perreault needs sheltered minutes, leaving none for Johansson.

Do: inquire about a "veteran backup." Not because I fear Neuvirth and Varlamov can't handle the pressure, but because if they both get hurt again (they've both been hurt/unwell at the same time twice already this season) then the Caps are toast, in all likelihood. Jose Theodore is on a 1-year, $1.1 million contract, and could be a good third goalie. By all accounts he was a great teammate. Even if Theodore is simply a replacement-level NHL goalie, that's better than Holtby at this point, I'd say.

Do not: put Johansson and Chimera on the same line. This is all you need to see. At the very least, not without Fehr or Laich there too.

Do not: run Varlamov. Make sure he's healthy for the playoffs. He's the Caps' best goalie, but also the most fragile.

Do not: trade Brooks Laich. He's been great.

Do: look into trading John Erskine and David Steckel. Their contracts will hurt from next season onward, even if only in the short term. Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, and cheap FA defensemen can be rostered for less with minimal loss in contribution.

Do not: be afraid to trade a winger. Andrew Gordon is ready for the NHL.

Do: look into acquiring a top-pair, more defensive-minded defenseman. Well, the one such guy, Chris Phillips. With Poti's health far from guaranteed, pushing everyone save Green down a spot on the depth chart (Hannan to extra #1) would provide some extra insurance against injury. Moreover, Phillips looks like an ideal partner for Green, in the mold of a more mature Alzner, with good skating, puck moving, defensive instincts, and physical play. More ideal than Schultz or Hannan, anyways.

Do not: bench Nicklas Backstrom. Unless he's actually injured. Don't want to ruin his rhythm or his ironman streak.

Do: try and poach someone from the Devils. Not that they have lots of good players that could be had for less than a huge ransom, I guess.

Do not: trade Eric Fehr. Unless the return is really good. He's a legitimate possession forward who gets nowhere near as much credit or attention as he deserves...which means he's a good bet to sign for less than he's worth and outperform his contract(s) in the coming years.

Do not: trade for Brad Richards, unless the deal is highway robbery. Richards only produces like a 1C in Dallas because he gets the easiest minutes. He's not the player he was in Tampa Bay (decent 1C production despite tough matchups). And now he's having concussion issues. I'll pass.

Do not: trade Evgeny Kuznetsov. He's the only top-notch forward in the system at the moment.

Quick Thoughts on the Recent Trades

Blues get: D Kevin Shattenkirk, F Chris Stewart, 2nd round pick
Avalanche get: C Jay McClement, D Erik Johnson, 1st round pick

I think the Avalanche might have ripped off St. Louis. A young defenseman who has plenty of time to grow and an elite defensive forward for a in-his-prime (23 yrs old) power forward who gets easy zone starts and middling competition (with below-average teammates), but isn't break-even in Corsi, and a young D who was clearly "sold high" thanks to his hot 14pts-in-14gms start this season. The ages of Shattenkirk and Stewart, though, may make this deal a wash in overall impact. Over the next two years, though, no question Colorado wins.

Avalanche get: G Brian Elliott
Senators get: G Craig Anderson

I don't get this trade from an Avalanche perspective. They could have gotten something better than Elliott for Anderson: at the very least, a Ty Wishart-type defenseman.

Bruins get: D Tomas Kaberle
Maple Leafs get: 1st round pick, conditional second round pick, C Joe Colborne

I like this trade for both teams. Colborne is 21 and could reasonably become a bottom-six forward, and the Leafs also get picks to help themselves rebuild. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed some more top-end talent on the blueline. While Kaberle does need soft minutes, Zdeno Chara is already there to take the toughs, and guys like Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are perfectly capable of playing top lines effectively as well.

Bruins get: C Rich Peverley, D Boris Valabik
Thrashers get: F Blake Wheeler, D Mark Stuart

Looks okay for both teams. One young power forward goes one way, a good 20-goal scorer the other, and a somewhat-young-defenseman swap.

Blackhawks get: F Michael Frolik, G Alexander Salak
Panthers get: F Jack Skille, F Hugh Jessiman, F David Pacan

Easily a win for Chicago--tough minutes top-6 forward, good goalie prospect, for a "project" power forward (think along the lines of Eric Fehr in 07-08, perhaps), a notable draft bust, and a longshot (6th round)-but-only-19 prospect forward.

Lightning get: D Eric Brewer
Blues get: 3rd round pick, F Brock Beukeboom

I don't understand what the Blues are doing. They are a top-5 team by Corsi, yet are trading away D. I understand they have tons of injuries, but they are young enough to be able to wait until next year. As for Brewer specifically, he is one of St. Louis' heavy lifters. Why trade him?

Sharks get: D Ian White
Hurricanes get: 2012 2nd round pick

Seems pretty fair.

Bruins get: C Chris Kelley
Senators get: 2nd round pick

Flyers get: F Kris Versteeg
Maple Leafs get: 1st round pick, 3rd round pick

Versteeg is a legitimate top-6 forward locked up for a couple of more years at a reasonable price. He gives the Flyers some more cap certainty. I do think they overpaid, though--a 2nd and 3rd, or 1st and 5th, may have done the trick as well.

Predators get: C Mike Fisher
Senators get: 1st round pick, conditional 2012 pick

The worst move I've ever seen GM David Poile make. There is little chance Fisher performs enough to warrant his cap hit, let alone overperform. And he's locked up for another two years after this one.

Ducks get: D Francois Beauchemin
Maple Leafs get: F Joffrey Lupul, D Jake Gardiner

Good move for the Ducks, getting a legitimate top-4 D to shore up their shoddy defense. I don't think, however, they should've made this trade--I expect them to fall out of the playoff picture, anyways. Gardiner per Hockey's Future is the Leafs' second-best prospect now (behind Nazem Kadri), so the Ducks gave up a ton of value for Beauchemin.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Awards Watch: February

Hart Trophy:
  1. Tim Thomas--Boston gives up a lot of shots. Thomas stops most of them.
  2. Sidney Crosby--I think this high rank attests to how badly he was lapping the field before big bad David Steckel nailed him.
  3. Steven Stamkos--leads the league in goals and points. While his Corsi ain't great, I give him a bit of a pass considering poor zonestart and playing 2nd-toughs.
  4. Jonas Hiller--Anaheim gets killed territorially on a nightly basis. Their only saving grace is the top-notch line of Bobby Ryan-Ryan Getzlaf-Corey Perry, the dominant pairing of Lubomir Visnovksy-Tony Lydman, and the NHL's #2 power play. And Hiller, too.
  5. Henrik Lundqvist--tied for 1st with seven shutouts. The biggest reason NYR are in playoff position is because Lundqvist has been stopping everything.
Just missed: Pekka Rinne, Martin St. Louis, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Jonathan Quick

    Sunday, February 13, 2011

    Just a Quick Thought

    My best received post was the one earlier this year focusing on the fact that without Alex Ovechkin on the ice, the Caps' Corsi was essentially zero.

    Unfortunately, the same is still true. Considering that Brooks Laich tends to play separately from Ovechkin, though, and that Laich has a pretty solid "Corsi On," I think it's safe to conclude that it is the Caps' bottom two forward lines that are dragging the team down: specifically, Jay Beagle, Marcus Johansson, David Steckel, Boyd Gordon, and Jason Chimera, along with Tyler Sloan, John Erskine, and Jeff Schultz.

    Schultz is inexcusable--high quality teammates and decent zonestart, yet few results. Johansson (sorry, Marcus) is inexcusable too, with a 60% zonestart (even with tough competition and average teammates, that's a high zonestart, and considering his zonefinish is only 46%, he needs more sheltered minutes). We know the stories on Beagle, Sloan, and Erskine. Steckel and Gordon face tough competition with tough zonestart and no help. Chimera frequently starts in the defensive zone with below-average teammates and above-average competition.

    How do we remedy the situation quickly? Here's my idea: find a 3C who moves the puck up the ice and doesn't need sheltered minutes. Move Johansson to that guy's wing or maybe 2LW. Sacrifice most of that 60% zonestart to give to Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, like they've had in prior years (sidenote: and Fedorov had a low zonestart too??? Shite). And find an upgrade on defense, since this season Schultz, Erskine, and Sloan haven't been good enough to be put together in any combination, and it's risky to pair them with someone else lest they drag that guy down too.

    I'm firmly a believer that this team isn't that far away, contrary to what people and Corsi say (Corsi also says a similar roster was elite for two years, 5-6% better in tied Fenwick than now). I estimate getting better minutes out of Johansson's spot in the lineup will take this team to a 53% Fenwick (right now it's about 50-51%). While that's still not elite, it's as good as, say Boston, or Philadelphia last year. It gives this team a fighting chance to make the Stanley Cup Finals.

    All that then needs to happen is for someone to knock off Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Considering teams like Florida, Montreal, and the New York Rangers are hanging around the bottom of the playoff picture, one--or both--of them getting upset in the first round is a very real possibility.

    Capitals Adjusted Corsi

    Corsi and Fenwick ratings, adjusted for zone starts. Each offensive zone start is worth about 0.8 Corsi, and each negative zone start is worth about -0.8 Corsi. You can see the spreadsheet here. All data from

    I sorted by adjusted Corsi On, not adjusted Corsi Rel.

    QoC is Corsi Rel QoC, QoT is Corsi Rel QoT.

    To calculate Corsi adjust, I calculated the player's raw Corsi for the entire season, added or subtracted to adjust for zone starts, and converted that back to a Corsi/60 measure. Corsi Rel adjust is Corsi adjust minus Corsi Off (which I did not adjust). Corsi Rel Delta is Corsi Rel adjust less the original Corsi Rel. ODelta is the zone start plus-minus (offensive zone starts minus defensive zone starts), and OPCT is offensive zone start percentage (Ozonestarts divided by total non-neutral zone starts).

    • More Andrew Gordon, please. He looks NHL-ready, possibly top-6. At the very least, he deserves a look as a top-9 wing. His linemates haven't been Corsi studs, yet his raw Corsi in just over 60 minutes on the season is +15, and apparently against decent competition.
    • Less Marcus Johansson. He may look good by the eyes, but he's getting killed territorially. At a minimum, you have to admit his offensive smarts aren't quite there yet. He has the highest zone start delta on the team, yet one of the worst unadjusted Corsis. I hesitate to admit it, but in my humble opinion, he could use some AHL time. He can come back up when he's really ready. I don't doubt there are plenty of centers available for a low draft pick who'd do better in Johansson's position.
    • At least, I can't think of any other reasons why every underlying metric suggests he can't really handle his not-terribly-tough minutes. Can you?
    • If that doesn't happen, Bruce Boudreau, don't put Johansson and Chimera together. Their underlying numbers make them seem like a disaster waiting to happen. I advocated for Chimera-Perreault-Fehr before the season started, and I'll stick by that. Looking at Chimera's zone finish, I reckon Chimera is good at moving the puck up ice, but doesn't really know what to do with it once on the attack. He needs linemates that can sustain offense. Preferably two of 'em. 
    • And not Backstrom and Ovechkin.
    • Boyd Gordon is a really good defensive center. Not quite Selke-worthy, but still really good.
    • David Steckel is no pushover, either.
    • And Matt Bradley is a pretty good fourth line wing, too.
    • I can't believe Matt Hendricks fell into the Caps' lap like that. Tough competition, poorest linemates, and he comes out ahead. Wow.
    • John Carlson is arguably the Caps' best defenseman. For real. At even strength he's comparable to Mike Green, and Green appears to have given up his huge advantage on the power play this season. The other day I came across people who think other rookie defensemen like Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk have been better...yeah, right.
    • Scott Hannan has settled in nicely. Tom Poti and Jeff Schultz? Not so much. What happened, double-nickel? Sidenote: Chris Phillips is the only legitimate top-pair D available and UFA in July 2011.
    • George McPhee needs to re-sign Brooks Laich for cheap before his agent figures out how good he's been this season. You could say he's been partly carried by Alexander Semin, but you could also say for most of the year he's had a better Corsi than Semin--or any other Cap--despite the toughest competition among forwards. Imagine how kick-ass a line with Laich and Semin would be centered by a player who can also drive the play (coughWeisscough). They'd be Zetterberg-Filppula-Franzen-esque, methinks.
    • DJ King has averaged roughly a fight every two games this season. The more time he spends sitting those majors (as a proportion of his total time not-in-the-press-box-or-on-the-bench), the better, frankly.

    Saturday, February 12, 2011

    Recap: Kings 4, Capitals 1

    Believe it or not, playing a conservative style does not prevent you from attacking. Unfortunately, that is what, it appears, Bruce Boudreau has his team believing. For a team that isn't great at forechecking, the transition game can be life or death. When you're not attacking in transition, it'll always be death.

    Here's another thought: put Ovechkin on the RW on the PP. Make sure he and Backstrom are never on the same side. Teams can cheat to that side because no one backdoor is going to burn them--Green has to stay high in case Ovechkin loses the puck, Backstrom has to stay along the boards as a potential pass recipient. Semin below the goal line is not a realistic option to get a pass, and neither is Knuble in front. Hence, it's easy enough to get three guys aggressively on Backstrom-Ovechkin-Green, with relatively low risk.

    I don't care if the game is boring or not. I care if the Capitals are trying to play a defensive style and failing at it. They gave up a ton of chances in transition in the third--perhaps the Kings' good forecheck and cycling in the first two periods contributed to that. One of those third period LA goals stands out to me. Semin goes on 1-on-3, 3 Caps are in the neutral zone, but they all get beaten. There's no excuse to give up a 2-on-1 when you only get as far as the attacking blueline, and with only one player at that, but that is exactly what happened (and I believe it was Handzus passing for the goal to Jarret Stoll).

    Scoring chance tally after the jump.

    Is Semyon Varlamov Elite?

    Well, let's take a look. I ran 100,000 trials of Varlamov's career to date, assuming a .915 talent total and .920 at even strength (approximately NHL average).

    Varlamov thus far has been .930 at ES and .918 total (he had a brutal PK sv% last season, about 80%, only better than Vesa Toskala).


              0.904    0.909    0.914    0.919     0.924     0.929     0.934    0.939    0.944    1.000
    ES      2472    6380     14007    22662    24754    17897    8691    2629     451       57
    Total   1969    5982     16916   24357     25097    18152    5889    1485     143       10

    The numbers denote the number of times I got a save percentage less than or equal to the one heading the column, but greater than the one heading the previous column (so first column is save percentage under .904, second is .904 to .909, etc).

    So there's still roughly a 11% chance Varlamov is simply average and overperforming at even strength. That's not all that big. It's tougher to say where Varlamov lies overall.

    Looks to me like George McPhee has a 22-year old stud on his hands.

    Code is after the jump. I think it's fairly straightforward should you ever want to edit it. If you aren't familiar with Java and want standard deviation and mean coded in, shoot me an email and I'll send you a revised program.

    Season of the Goalies?

    Is it just me, or have goalies been tearing up the league this season much more than usual?

    (GVT from Behind the Net)

    So in a quick and dirty look I'd say the good goalies are playing better than in years past, especially at even strength.

    Which makes the Caps' inability to score all the more difficult to overcome.

    Quality Starts

    Evaluating goaltending is difficult. Wins are a BS stat, GAA relies heavily on how many shots your defense actually gives up, save percentage is strong affected by special teams (especially the essentially-random PK sv%), and even strength save percentage requires a big sample to sort through the goalies. And so on.

    A better metric may be quality starts. To get a "quality start," a goalie has to either:

    a) Stop an above average number of shots (.912 this season)
    b) Allow 2 goals or less with a save percentage greater than .880

    Teams on average win about 75% of their goalies' quality starts, and win about 25% without a quality start. If the goalie stops less than 85% of shots against, we'll call it a really bad start.

    So how are the Caps and their opponents doing in terms of quality starts?

    Quick Fedorov WOWY

    One of the reasons I remain optimistic about the Capitals this season is that their roster compared to the roster two years ago is very similar. The 07-08 and 08-09 Capitals were both legitimately elite teams, posting Fenwick% in the whereabouts of 55%.

    I have two theories as to why the team has regressed to about 51% in the last two seasons.

    One is roster turnover. Like it or not, players like Viktor Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov were Corsi-drivers, and replacements like Marcus Johansson, Mike Knuble, and Jason Chimera, to put it succinctly, are not (though Chimera is still an upgrade over Chris Clark). In this case, the Capitals could only be a couple of trades away from returning to elite status.

    The second is that Bruce Boudreau has "lost the room." I firmly believe that part of the reason the 07-08 team was able to be so successful is not only that they had a ton of talent, but also that they still had the Glen-Hanlon-induced hard work ethic as well. Over time I believe this work ethic may have been lost. I remember how the Capitals, at least the media said, would take pride in the fact that they were never outworked under Hanlon; they are outworked almost every night under Boudreau, since September 2009 at least. When your team is winning, it is easy to think that you can be a little lazy--Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom will bail you out.

    To check the first theory, I'll do a brief Fedorov WOWY, possible because of

    Thursday, February 10, 2011

    Caps Shutout Sim

    Reposted from a comment I made over at Japers' Rink.

    Two notes:

    One, the link points here.

    Just a thought that occurred to me: I might have miscalculated the confidence interval, although at first look it looks alright (every team finished within that interval last season).

    I copy-pasted the code I used after the jump. Results may vary slightly from what I got.